{"title":"The impact of macroprudential policies on industrial growth","authors":"Carlos Madeira","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103106","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper analyzes the causal impact of macroprudential policies on growth, using industry-level data for 89 countries for the period 1990 to 2021. The small industry size creates exogenous identification, avoiding reverse-causality. I find macroprudential tightening measures impact manufacturing growth negatively, but only for industries with high external finance dependence. This effect is stronger during banking crises, higher growth periods and for advanced economies. The effect is weaker during periods of high private credit growth. Prudential policies implemented before the pandemic mitigated the fall in growth. Growth effects on externally dependent industries are economically sizeable and can persist over three years.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48331,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Money and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560624000937/pdfft?md5=f2720b789e9f410ce0877603e0ade52a&pid=1-s2.0-S0261560624000937-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of International Money and Finance","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560624000937","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
This paper analyzes the causal impact of macroprudential policies on growth, using industry-level data for 89 countries for the period 1990 to 2021. The small industry size creates exogenous identification, avoiding reverse-causality. I find macroprudential tightening measures impact manufacturing growth negatively, but only for industries with high external finance dependence. This effect is stronger during banking crises, higher growth periods and for advanced economies. The effect is weaker during periods of high private credit growth. Prudential policies implemented before the pandemic mitigated the fall in growth. Growth effects on externally dependent industries are economically sizeable and can persist over three years.
期刊介绍：
Since its launch in 1982, Journal of International Money and Finance has built up a solid reputation as a high quality scholarly journal devoted to theoretical and empirical research in the fields of international monetary economics, international finance, and the rapidly developing overlap area between the two. Researchers in these areas, and financial market professionals too, pay attention to the articles that the journal publishes. Authors published in the journal are in the forefront of scholarly research on exchange rate behaviour, foreign exchange options, international capital markets, international monetary and fiscal policy, international transmission and related questions.
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