Journal of International Money and Finance最新文献

英文中文

A quasi-experiment in monetary policy: The impact of unexpected easing on inflation expectations and firm behavior 货币政策的准实验：意外宽松对通胀预期和企业行为的影响

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103533

Okan Akarsu , Emrehan Aktuğ , Altan Aldan , Ünal Seven

This paper leverages a rare quasi-experiment—the unexpected September 2021 interest rate cut by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye—to examine how inflation expectations shape firm behavior in a high-inflation environment. Drawing on a rich dataset that combines monthly survey responses with administrative records, we exploit the heterogeneous revisions in firms’ inflation expectations triggered by the policy shock. Firms that significantly increased their inflation forecasts (treated) subsequently became more pessimistic about economic conditions, reduced employment, and curbed domestic sales. At the same time, they strategically raised procurement, acquired more foreign currency assets, and boosted borrowing in local currency—even at higher costs—in anticipation of debt erosion. These patterns suggest that firms’ heightened inflation expectations drive both defensive and opportunistic behaviors, ranging from hedging against currency depreciation to locking in lower financing costs. Overall, the findings highlight the critical role of inflation expectations in guiding firm-level decisions and document the importance of policy credibility in volatile macroeconomic settings.

本文利用一个罕见的准实验——2021年9月俄罗斯共和国中央银行出人意料地降息——来研究通胀预期如何在高通胀环境下塑造企业行为。利用将月度调查反馈与行政记录相结合的丰富数据集，我们利用了政策冲击引发的企业通胀预期的异质修正。那些显著提高通胀预期的公司随后对经济状况变得更加悲观，减少了就业，抑制了国内销售。与此同时，他们战略性地增加了采购，收购了更多的外币资产，并在预期债务侵蚀的情况下，以更高的成本增加了本币借款。这些模式表明，企业高涨的通胀预期既会推动防御性行为，也会推动机会主义行为，从对冲货币贬值到锁定较低的融资成本。总体而言，研究结果强调了通胀预期在指导企业决策方面的关键作用，并记录了政策可信度在动荡的宏观经济环境中的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Deciphering Delphic guidance: The Bank of England and geopolitical uncertainty 解读德尔菲指引：英格兰银行与地缘政治的不确定性

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103530

Jagjit S. Chadha , Corrado Macchiarelli , Satyam Goel , Arno Hantzsche , Sathya Mellina

The effective transmission of monetary policy can be hampered by geopolitical uncertainty, at times necessitating central banks to adapt their tools and communication strategy in order to anchor market expectations. The UK 2016 referendum on EU membership is a prominent example of geopolitical uncertainty, manifested as a historic event. Accordingly, this paper examines how the Bank of England (BoE) adjusted their response, including through conventional, unconventional monetary policy measures and communications. We use text-based analysis of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) summaries and minutes to measure the stance of policy, QE-related news and geopolitical uncertainty. To investigate the impact of central bank communication, we then decompose long-dated yields into a risk-neutral and term premium component and analyse the dynamic response to MPC communication. We show that the Bank’s communication strategy acted to complement the stance of monetary policy, which had responded to the result of the referendum by lowering Bank Rate and expanding QE, and helped lower the term premium that might otherwise have risen in response to this example of geopolitical uncertainty.

货币政策的有效传导可能受到地缘政治不确定性的阻碍，有时需要央行调整其工具和沟通策略，以锚定市场预期。2016年英国退欧公投是地缘政治不确定性的一个突出例子，表现为一个历史性事件。因此，本文研究了英国央行（BoE）如何调整其应对措施，包括通过传统的、非常规的货币政策措施和沟通。我们使用基于文本的货币政策委员会（MPC）摘要和会议纪要分析来衡量政策立场、量化宽松相关新闻和地缘政治不确定性。为了研究央行沟通的影响，我们将长期收益率分解为风险中性和期限溢价成分，并分析对货币政策委员会沟通的动态响应。我们表明，央行的沟通策略起到了补充货币政策立场的作用，货币政策通过降低银行利率和扩大量化宽松来应对公投结果，并帮助降低了可能因地缘政治不确定性而上升的期限溢价。

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引用次数: 0

Robust regularities in the heterogeneity of consumer price inflation 消费者价格通胀异质性的稳健规律

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103536

Bingxin Ann Xing , Bruno Feunou , Roméo Tédongap

We define the Individual Excess Inflation Rates (IEIR) for consumer goods and services as their Individual Inflation Rates (IIR) minus the CPI inflation rate. Cross-sectional heterogeneity in the IEIRs of consumer items can be explained by their varying exposures to both pro-cyclical factors (e.g., long-term inflation expectations, wages, and consumer sentiment) and counter-cyclical factors (e.g., the unemployment gap, economic policy uncertainty, and financial conditions). Approximately 40% of the variation in IEIRs is attributable to the differential responses of items to these macroeconomic factors. Items that are more sensitive to pro-cyclical factors tend to display lower IEIRs, whereas those more responsive to counter-cyclical factors exhibit higher IEIRs. These findings remain robust after controlling for other potential drivers, such as inflation volatility and persistence.

我们将消费品和服务的个人超额通货膨胀率（IEIR）定义为其个人通货膨胀率（IIR）减去CPI通货膨胀率。消费项目ieir的横断面异质性可以用它们对顺周期因素（如长期通胀预期、工资和消费者情绪）和反周期因素（如失业差距、经济政策不确定性和金融状况）的不同暴露来解释。ieir的差异约有40%可归因于项目对这些宏观经济因素的不同反应。对顺周期因素更敏感的项目往往表现出较低的ieir，而对反周期因素更敏感的项目则表现出较高的ieir。在控制了其他潜在驱动因素（如通货膨胀波动性和持久性）后，这些发现仍然很有力。

引用次数: 0

Sustainable regulation, stronger currencies: Evidence from capital flow dynamics 可持续监管，货币走强：来自资本流动动态的证据

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103531

Sining Liu , Wendi Huang

Using a staggered Difference-in-Differences approach across 48 countries, we find that currencies with more stringent Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG) regulations yield higher returns. The increase in currency returns stems from growth in net capital flows, which is primarily driven by a significant reduction in capital outflows, especially of portfolio investment. While changes in the ESG regulatory environment introduce uncertainty to the economy, investors value the alleviation of information opacity and, more significantly, the mitigation of ESG-related risks. Our findings highlight the potential of ESG regulation as an effective policy tool to enhance financial stability and attract capital by reducing perceived risk and information asymmetry in the international currency markets.

通过对48个国家的交错差分方法，我们发现环境、社会和治理（ESG）法规更严格的货币产生更高的回报。货币回报的增加源于净资本流动的增长，这主要是由资本外流，特别是证券投资的大幅减少所驱动的。虽然ESG监管环境的变化给经济带来了不确定性，但投资者重视减轻信息不透明，更重要的是，减轻与ESG相关的风险。我们的研究结果强调了ESG监管作为一种有效的政策工具的潜力，通过减少国际货币市场上的感知风险和信息不对称来增强金融稳定和吸引资本。

引用次数: 0

In search of the origin of original sin dissipation 寻找原罪的起源消散

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103532

Bada Han , Taehee Oh , Jangyoun Lee

In this paper, we examine how, contrary to the ‘original sin’ hypothesis, emerging market economies have gained the ability to borrow abroad in their local currency. We empirically analyze the relationship between various economic variables and local currency debt and identify three crucial conditions for the capacity to borrow in local currency: institutional quality, sufficient depth in the domestic bond market, and adequate performance in inflation targeting. While trade and financial openness, as well as shares in JPMorgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) Index also appear to be influential, their associations with local currency debt are less clear. We conduct a similar empirical analysis on portfolio equity, which represents a safer form of external liability than foreign currency debt, and verify that the depth of the equity market plays a key role in attracting foreign capital to domestic equity markets. Finally, we propose a simple portfolio model based on the inelastic market hypothesis to explain the positive correlation between capital market depth and the dissipation of original sin, which refers to the presence of more external liability in the form of equity or local currency debt. In essence, our analysis suggests that emerging market economies with reasonably strong fundamentals are not necessarily reliant on foreign currency debt.

在本文中，我们研究了与“原罪”假设相反，新兴市场经济体如何获得以本币向国外借款的能力。我们实证分析了各种经济变量与本币债务之间的关系，并确定了本币借贷能力的三个关键条件：制度质量、国内债券市场的足够深度和通胀目标制的良好表现。虽然贸易和金融开放，以及摩根大通政府债券指数-新兴市场（GBI-EM）指数的股票似乎也有影响力，但它们与本币债务的关系不太清楚。我们对投资组合股权进行了类似的实证分析，这代表了一种比外币债务更安全的外部负债形式，并验证了股权市场的深度在吸引外资进入国内股权市场方面发挥了关键作用。最后，我们提出了一个基于非弹性市场假设的简单投资组合模型来解释资本市场深度与原罪消散之间的正相关关系，原罪消散指的是以股权或本币债务形式存在更多的外部负债。从本质上讲，我们的分析表明，基本面相当强劲的新兴市场经济体不一定依赖外币债务。

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引用次数: 0

Public spending, private gains: the gendered impact of exogenous fiscal policy shocks 公共支出、私人收益：外生财政政策冲击的性别影响

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103527

João Jalles , John Beirne , Donghyun Park , Gazi Salah Uddin

This paper examines the gender-specific effects of exogenous public spending shocks across a global sample, using a novel identification strategy and local projections. We distinguish between investment and consumption shocks and further decompose spending by function—education, health, and social protection. Public investment shocks generally reduce female labor force participation but increase wage shares and lower maternal mortality. Consumption shocks also lower participation but raise service-sector employment and tertiary enrolment in the short term. Functionally, education spending delays labor force entry but improves wages and enrolment; health spending boosts agricultural employment but may initially increase maternal mortality; and social protection stabilizes rural employment while reducing overall participation. Nonlinear analyses reveal strong heterogeneity by income level, initial gender inequality, and labor informality. For example, investment boosts female employment in poorer EMDEs but reinforces participation gaps in richer ones. These results highlight the need for gender-responsive fiscal frameworks tailored to structural conditions, and show that fiscal design—not just scale—shapes inclusive development outcomes.

本文使用一种新的识别策略和地方预测，研究了全球样本中外生公共支出冲击的性别特定影响。我们区分投资冲击和消费冲击，并进一步按功能——教育、卫生和社会保障——对支出进行分解。公共投资冲击通常会降低女性劳动力参与率，但会增加工资份额，降低孕产妇死亡率。消费冲击也会降低劳动参与率，但短期内会提高服务业就业和高等教育入学率。从功能上讲，教育支出推迟了劳动力的进入，但提高了工资和入学率；卫生支出促进农业就业，但最初可能会增加孕产妇死亡率；社会保护稳定了农村就业，同时降低了总体参与率。非线性分析表明，收入水平、初始性别不平等和劳动非正式性具有很强的异质性。例如，投资促进了较贫穷的新兴市场发展中国家的女性就业，但却加剧了较富裕国家的参与率差距。这些结果突出表明，有必要根据结构条件制定促进性别平等的财政框架，并表明财政设计——而不仅仅是规模——决定了包容性发展成果。

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引用次数: 0

Geopolitical risk and the cross-section of stock returns: International evidence 地缘政治风险和股票收益的横截面：国际证据

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103526

Ran Chen , Lu Yang , Xueyong Zhang

This study investigates the relationship between geopolitical risk (GPR) and the cross-section of stock returns in an international setting. We find that individual stocks’ exposures to local GPR are negatively related to their expected returns. This effect is more pronounced for firms in developed markets than those in emerging markets, and for firms in high-risk markets than those in low-risk markets. We also document that the pricing of local GPR varies across countries according to stock market development and information transparency. In addition, we demonstrate that global GPR is a significant pricing factor across international stock markets. These findings indicate that investors demand extra compensation in the form of higher expected returns to hold stocks with negative GPR betas and are willing to accept lower expected returns for “safe assets” that have positive betas.

本研究探讨国际背景下地缘政治风险（GPR）与股票收益横截面的关系。我们发现个股对本地GPR的敞口与其预期收益呈负相关。这种效应对发达市场的公司比对新兴市场的公司更为明显，对高风险市场的公司比对低风险市场的公司更为明显。我们还记录了当地GPR的定价因股票市场发展和信息透明度而异。此外，我们证明了全球GPR是国际股票市场的一个重要定价因素。这些发现表明，投资者要求以更高的预期回报形式持有负GPR贝塔股票的额外补偿，并且愿意接受具有正贝塔的“安全资产”的较低预期回报。

引用次数: 0

Digital safeguards in trade wars: assessing the impact of China’s CBEC pilot zone on global supply chain resilience 贸易战中的数字保障：评估中国CBEC试验区对全球供应链弹性的影响

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103529

Haoyuan Ding , Daming Huang , Zida Li , Xingyu Lu

This study explores whether China Cross-Border E-Commerce (CBEC) Comprehensive Pilot Zone served as a cushion for global supply chains against the shock of the China-U.S. trade war. Leveraging micro-level supply chain data and a difference-in-differences design, we find participation in CBEC Comprehensive Pilot Zone reduces supply chain disruptions by 4.1 percentage points – equivalent to a 53 % decline relative to the mean, and the mitigating effect is particularly pronounced for non-U.S. trade partners and industries not directly targeted by tariffs. Further analysis identifies four underlying mechanisms: (1) easing financial constraints, (2) reducing information costs and negotiation costs, (3) leveraging trade infrastructure, and (4) synergies with customers’ institutional quality. Moreover, firms in CBEC comprehensive pilot zones also establish more U.S. relationships in non-targeted industries, exhibiting lower costs and higher operational efficiency.

本研究探讨中国跨境电子商务综合试验区是否为全球供应链抵御中美贸易摩擦冲击提供了缓冲。贸易战争。利用微观层面的供应链数据和差异中之差的设计，我们发现参与CBEC综合试验区减少了4.1个百分点的供应链中断，相当于相对于平均值下降了53%，并且缓解效果对非美国尤其明显。不是关税直接针对的贸易伙伴和行业。进一步分析确定了四个潜在机制：(1)缓解金融约束；(2)降低信息成本和谈判成本；(3)利用贸易基础设施；(4)与客户制度质量的协同效应。此外，CBEC综合试验区的企业在非目标行业也建立了更多的美国关系，表现出更低的成本和更高的运营效率。

引用次数: 0

Public spending and inclusive growth: A cross-country empirical analysis 公共支出与包容性增长：一项跨国实证分析

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103528

Gazi Salah Uddin , Anh H. Le , Md. Bokhtiar Hasan , John Beirne , Donghyun Park

We investigate the effects of different components of government spending on inclusive growth. More specifically, we consider the inclusive impact of public spending on environmental protection, health, education, housing, and social protection, all of which can conceivably promote inclusive growth. For our empirical analysis, we apply panel regressions and local projections to a comprehensive database of 191 countries between 1980 and 2023. Our evidence indicates that equity-promoting government spending reduces income inequality, as measured by the Gini index, and improves human development indicators. Moreover, our analysis reveals that poorer households benefit disproportionately, suggesting that targeted fiscal expenditures can promote equity. Notably, the inclusive effects are most pronounced in advanced economies, where robust fiscal frameworks support and amplify such effects. In contrast, emerging and developing economies experience more modest gains. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of well-designed public spending programs for equitable growth. Finally, we conduct state-dependent local projections and a regional sub-sample analysis.

我们研究了政府支出的不同组成部分对包容性增长的影响。更具体地说，我们考虑了公共支出在环境保护、卫生、教育、住房和社会保护方面的包容性影响，所有这些都可以令人信服地促进包容性增长。为了进行实证分析，我们对1980年至2023年间191个国家的综合数据库进行了面板回归和地方预测。我们的证据表明，以基尼指数衡量，促进公平的政府支出减少了收入不平等，并改善了人类发展指标。此外，我们的分析表明，较贫困的家庭受益不成比例，这表明有针对性的财政支出可以促进公平。值得注意的是，包容性效应在发达经济体最为明显，发达经济体健全的财政框架支持并放大了这种效应。相比之下，新兴和发展中经济体的收益则较为温和。总的来说，研究结果强调了设计良好的公共支出计划对公平增长的重要性。最后，我们进行了依赖于状态的局部预测和区域子样本分析。

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引用次数: 0

Exchange rates and cross-border consumer spending: Evidence from retail payments data 汇率和跨境消费者支出：来自零售支付数据的证据

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103525

Laura Felber

This paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on cross-border consumer spending in small open economies. Exploiting an unexpected and persistent central bank-induced exchange rate appreciation of more than 20% and drawing on a unique dataset of over 500 million anonymized debit and credit card transactions, I document a substantial and immediate impact on consumer spending. While cross-border shopping by domestic consumers is estimated to have increased by 4% in the quarter of the shock, tourism spending by foreign consumers declined by up to 9%. The strongest spending adjustments are observed among domestic consumers living near the border and foreign consumers from neighboring countries. The latter exhibit high exchange rate sensitivity on both the extensive and intensive margins, with an overall elasticity of 0.66, and shift their consumption from higher- to lower-value goods and services. These findings suggest significant substitution effects in consumption on impact and emphasize the important role of cross-border shopping in small open economies. The paper provides insights for policymakers, especially in small open economies where exchange rates, via the trade channel, are a key determinant of economic activity.

本文考察了汇率波动对小型开放经济体跨境消费者支出的影响。利用央行引发的意外且持续的超过20%的汇率升值，并利用超过5亿匿名借记卡和信用卡交易的独特数据集，我记录了对消费者支出的重大而直接的影响。据估计，在受冲击的那个季度，国内消费者的跨境购物增长了4%，而外国消费者的旅游支出下降了9%。居住在边境附近的国内消费者和来自邻国的外国消费者的支出调整最为明显。后者在粗放型边际和集约型边际均表现出较高的汇率敏感性，总体弹性为0.66，并将消费从高价值商品和服务转向低价值商品和服务。这些研究结果表明，跨境购物在消费影响上具有显著的替代效应，并强调了跨境购物在小型开放经济体中的重要作用。本文为政策制定者提供了见解，特别是在小型开放经济体中，通过贸易渠道，汇率是经济活动的关键决定因素。

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