Journal of International Money and Finance最新文献

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Dynamic effects of fiscal rules: Do initial conditions Matter? 财政规则的动态效应：初始条件重要吗？

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103499

Antonio Fatás , Bram Gootjes , Joseph Mawejje

Fiscal rules have been shown to support fiscal discipline by improving government budget balances and restraining the growth of debt. However, questions remain about what enhances their effectiveness and how certain conditions help to build the credibility needed for their survival and success. Using data from 116 countries between 1984 and 2015, this paper studies the dynamic effects of fiscal rule adoption. It shows that although fiscal rules generally improve the cyclically adjusted primary balance, their effects depend on the time horizon under consideration and the context of adoption. In advanced economies and countries with strong political institutions, the effects strengthen over time. Conversely, in emerging markets and developing economies—especially those with weaker institutions—their impact tends to fade as time passes. The findings highlight the critical role of economic conditions and consensus building at the time of adoption. Specifically, fiscal rules introduced in times of economic hardship or under highly concentrated political power are often less effective in the medium term. Good design of fiscal rules is important, but it is no silver bullet.

财政规则已被证明可以通过改善政府预算平衡和抑制债务增长来支持财政纪律。然而，关于是什么提高了它们的有效性，以及某些条件如何有助于建立它们生存和成功所需的信誉，问题仍然存在。本文利用1984年至2015年间116个国家的数据，研究了财政规则采用的动态效应。它表明，虽然财政规则一般会改善周期性调整的基本平衡，但其效果取决于所考虑的时间范围和采用的背景。在发达经济体和拥有强大政治制度的国家，这种影响会随着时间的推移而增强。相反，在新兴市场和发展中经济体——尤其是那些制度薄弱的经济体——它们的影响往往会随着时间的推移而减弱。调查结果强调了经济条件和共识建立在采用时的关键作用。具体而言，在经济困难时期或在政治权力高度集中的情况下制定的财政规则，在中期往往效果较差。良好的财政规则设计很重要，但它不是灵丹妙药。

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引用次数: 0

How Phillips curve dynamics enhance business cycle synchronization analysis in Central and Eastern Europe 菲利普斯曲线动力学如何增强中欧和东欧经济周期同步分析

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103495

Nico Petz , Thomas O. Zörner

This paper analyzes business cycle synchronization and the Phillips curve relationship in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European (CESEE) economies relative to the euro area. Using business cycles extracted with a Kalman filter and applying several synchronization measures, we find that CESEE EU countries are more closely aligned with the euro area than their non-EU counterparts. Heterogeneities are most pronounced during the early 2000s, the global financial crisis, and the euro crisis. We find strong evidence of a time-varying unemployment-inflation relationship, with a post-COVID-19 steepening of the Phillips curve and negative slope coefficients in nearly all countries. Phillips curve slopes increasingly converge toward the euro area, particularly among EU members whose post-2022 dynamics are closely aligned. These results highlight the role of EU membership in fostering economic synchronization and the need to account for time variation when assessing convergence in the face of major shocks.

本文分析了中欧、东欧和东南欧经济体相对于欧元区的经济周期同步性和菲利普斯曲线关系。使用卡尔曼滤波提取的商业周期并应用几种同步措施，我们发现CESEE欧盟国家比非欧盟国家与欧元区的联系更紧密。异质性在21世纪初、全球金融危机和欧元危机期间最为明显。我们发现了失业率与通胀之间存在时变关系的有力证据，在几乎所有国家，菲利普斯曲线在新冠肺炎疫情后趋于陡峭，斜率系数为负。菲利普斯曲线的斜率越来越向欧元区靠拢，特别是在2022年后的动态紧密一致的欧盟成员国之间。这些结果突出了欧盟成员国在促进经济同步方面的作用，以及在评估面临重大冲击的趋同时考虑时间变化的必要性。

引用次数: 0

Global shocks, institutional development, and trade restrictions: What can we learn from crises and recoveries between 1990 and 2022? 全球冲击、制度发展和贸易限制：我们能从1990年至2022年的危机和复苏中学到什么？

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103504

Joshua Aizenman , Hiro Ito , Donghyun Park , Jamel Saadaoui , Gazi Salah Uddin

The Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic were two major shocks to the world economy in the 21st century. In this study, we analyze the patterns of recessions and recoveries of 101 advanced and developing economies. We identify the turning points of recessions and expansions between 1990 and 2022, and perform cross-country analysis of domestic and external drivers of economic recovery. In addition to the standard independent variables, we include institutional development, political stability, the extent of democracy, and trade restrictions indexes, and explore their roles in explaining recessions and recovery patterns. For the whole sample, we find that deeper recessions are followed by stronger recoveries, in line with Friedman’s plucking model of the business cycle. However, the empirical evidence for the plucking model becomes weaker if institutional development is limited and trade restrictions are high. We show that recessions that create conflict and trade tensions differ sharply from those that do not, a relevant finding in the current global climate of heightened trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty. Finally, since developing countries tend to have weaker institutions and higher trade barriers, our evidence suggests that countercyclical monetary and fiscal policy will have to play a bigger role in cushioning global shocks in those countries. This, in turn, requires more robust and credible monetary and fiscal policy frameworks.

国际金融危机和新冠肺炎疫情是21世纪世界经济面临的两大冲击。在这项研究中，我们分析了101个发达和发展中经济体的衰退和复苏模式。我们确定了1990年至2022年间经济衰退和扩张的转折点，并对经济复苏的国内外驱动因素进行了跨国分析。除了标准的自变量外，我们还包括制度发展、政治稳定、民主程度和贸易限制指数，并探讨它们在解释衰退和复苏模式中的作用。对于整个样本，我们发现，深度衰退之后是更强劲的复苏，这与弗里德曼的商业周期采摘模型一致。然而，在制度发展受限、贸易限制程度高的情况下，采摘模型的实证证据会变弱。我们的研究表明，造成冲突和贸易紧张的衰退与没有造成冲突和贸易紧张的衰退有很大不同，这是在当前贸易紧张局势加剧和地缘政治不确定性加剧的全球气候下的一个相关发现。最后，由于发展中国家往往有较弱的制度和较高的贸易壁垒，我们的证据表明，反周期货币和财政政策将不得不在缓冲这些国家的全球冲击方面发挥更大的作用。这反过来又需要更稳健、更可信的货币和财政政策框架。

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引用次数: 0

Decoding the digital finance revolution: How BigTechs, FinTechs and crypto-assets shape financial systemic risk in US and EU 解读数字金融革命：大科技、金融科技和加密资产如何影响美国和欧盟的金融系统风险

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103493

Domenico Curcio , Simona D’Amico , Iftekhar Hasan , Davide Vioto

Using a market-indicator-based approach, this paper empirically examines whether the stability of the US and EU financial systems is affected by the digital finance revolution driven by BigTechs, FinTechs, and crypto-assets. These three sectors display different downside volatility profiles, with financial intermediaries being particularly sensitive to shocks from the crypto ecosystem only under extremely severe downturns, which are prevented in regulated equity markets. In that vein, we provide evidence that the Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation reduced financial systemic risk in EU. Overall, our empirical analysis shows that markets perceive the performance and riskiness of tech-driven companies and assets in differentiated ways, and that the transmission of shocks from digital finance ecosystems operates uniquely under varying conditions of systemic stress. Finally, we also document asymmetric spillover effects between advanced and emerging economies, with shock transmission from the US and EU to emerging markets being systematically stronger than in the reverse direction.

本文采用基于市场指标的方法，实证研究了美国和欧盟金融体系的稳定性是否受到由大科技、金融科技和加密资产驱动的数字金融革命的影响。这三个行业表现出不同的下行波动性，金融中介机构只有在极其严重的经济衰退下才对加密生态系统的冲击特别敏感，而这种情况在受监管的股票市场中是不会发生的。在这种情况下，我们提供的证据表明，加密资产监管市场降低了欧盟的金融系统性风险。总体而言，我们的实证分析表明，市场以不同的方式感知技术驱动型公司和资产的绩效和风险，并且在不同的系统压力条件下，数字金融生态系统的冲击传导是独特的。最后，我们还记录了发达经济体和新兴经济体之间的不对称溢出效应，从美国和欧盟到新兴市场的冲击传导系统性强于反向传导。

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引用次数: 0

Not all housing cycles are created equal: Macroeconomic consequences of housing booms 并非所有的房地产周期都是平等的：房地产繁荣的宏观经济后果

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103496

Bruno Albuquerque , Eugenio Cerutti , Yosuke Kido , Richard Varghese

This paper shows that not all housing price cycles are alike. The speed and persistence of house price increases during housing expansions are key determinants of both the severity of the subsequent downturn and the net macroeconomic impact over the cycle. Analyzing 180 housing expansions across 68 countries, we classify 49 % as housing booms, characterized by rapid and persistent real house price increases. We find that economic downturns are significantly deeper and longer when housing contractions are preceded by a housing boom. The housing contraction is more severe the more intense the preceding housing boom, and when accompanied by a credit boom. Overall, while housing booms spur stronger economic growth during the expansion phase, their sharp reversals lead to severe housing contractions, resulting in significant net negative effects on the real economy.

本文表明，并非所有的房价周期都是相似的。在住房扩张期间，房价上涨的速度和持久性是决定随后经济低迷严重程度和整个周期的净宏观经济影响的关键因素。我们分析了68个国家的180次住房扩张，将49%归类为住房繁荣，其特征是实际房价快速持续上涨。我们发现，当房地产市场收缩之前出现房地产繁荣时，经济衰退的深度和时间都要长得多。之前的房地产繁荣越强烈，当伴随着信贷繁荣时，房地产收缩就越严重。总体而言，虽然房地产繁荣在扩张阶段刺激了更强劲的经济增长，但它们的急剧逆转导致了严重的房地产收缩，对实体经济产生了显著的净负面影响。

引用次数: 0

FOEs and the transmission of US monetary policy shocks: Evidence from China 敌人与美国货币政策冲击的传导：来自中国的证据

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103497

Yuanyuan Li , Xun Wang , Jingwen Yu

The transmission mechanisms of global liquidity shocks have garnered significant attention, particularly in the context of emerging market economies. This study contributes to this literature by empirically examining a novel household income channel through which foreign-owned enterprises (FOEs) propagate US monetary policy shocks to host countries. Leveraging a large Chinese individual-level survey dataset, we uncover a hitherto understudied mechanism linking external monetary tightening to income dynamics in the private sector. Tightening US monetary policy shocks exhibit a significantly larger contractionary effect on individuals employed in FOEs relative to those in non-FOEs. These spillover effects are more pronounced for individuals working in industries with greater external financial dependence and in provinces with less developed financial sector. Moreover, the income dampening effect of US monetary policy shocks through FOEs affects household consumption, and households with greater financing constraints are more prominently affected. Our paper provides new insights into how FOEs act as transmission intermediaries for external liquidity shocks, affecting the host country’s economy.

全球流动性冲击的传导机制引起了极大的关注，尤其是在新兴市场经济体的背景下。本研究通过实证研究一种新的家庭收入渠道，为这一文献做出了贡献，通过这种渠道，外资企业（foe）将美国货币政策冲击传播给东道国。利用中国大型个人层面的调查数据集，我们发现了一个迄今尚未得到充分研究的机制，将外部货币紧缩与私营部门的收入动态联系起来。紧缩的美国货币政策冲击对发达国家就业的个人的收缩效应明显大于非发达国家就业的个人。这些溢出效应对于在外部金融依赖程度较高的行业和金融部门欠发达省份工作的个人更为明显。此外，美国货币政策冲击对家庭消费的收入抑制效应，融资约束程度越高的家庭受到的影响越显著。我们的论文提供了新的见解，以了解foe如何作为外部流动性冲击的传导中介，影响东道国的经济。

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引用次数: 0

How do credit supply conditions transmit across the globe? 信贷供应状况如何在全球范围内传播？

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103488

Helmut Herwartz , Christian Ochsner , Hannes Rohloff

Pointing to the prominent role of global shocks in determining financial outcomes, global credit aggregates and indicators of country-specific credit market stress co-move to a significant extent. In this work, we examine the transmission of global credit supply shocks associated with governments, businesses and households to the country level. In a data-rich environment, we show that a substantial amount of variation in credit aggregates and interest rates is explained by common global credit supply components. In addition, we find that real risk and term premia and their associated uncertainties (i.e., realized volatilities) transmit global shocks to country-level debt and equity markets. However, effect magnitudes and signs are heterogeneous across sectors, and highlight the relevance of sector-specific credit market monitoring. For instance, whereas global government credit supply eases financial pressures, acting as safe-haven lending, global household credit supply shocks significantly increase risk and liquidity premia across the globe. An investigation of monetary policy effects of major central banks (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ) on global credit supply reveals important transmission heterogeneities of conventional versus unconventional policies.

鉴于全球冲击在决定金融结果方面的突出作用，全球信贷总量和各国信贷市场压力指标在很大程度上是联动的。在这项工作中，我们研究了与政府、企业和家庭相关的全球信贷供应冲击向国家层面的传导。在数据丰富的环境中，我们表明信贷总量和利率的大量变化可以用共同的全球信贷供应组成部分来解释。此外，我们发现实际风险和期限溢价及其相关的不确定性（即已实现波动率）将全球冲击传递到国家层面的债务和股票市场。然而，不同行业的影响程度和迹象是不同的，这凸显了针对特定行业的信贷市场监测的相关性。例如，虽然全球政府信贷供应缓解了金融压力，起到了避险贷款的作用，但全球家庭信贷供应冲击显著增加了全球范围内的风险和流动性溢价。对主要央行（美联储、欧洲央行、英国央行、日本央行）货币政策对全球信贷供应影响的调查揭示了传统政策与非常规政策的重要传导异质性。

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引用次数: 0

Exchange rate regime flexibility and firms’ employment 汇率制度灵活性与企业就业

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103487

Silvio Contessi , Qingyuan Du , Deting Gao , Lei Pan , Shenxiang Xie

This paper examines how exchange rate regime flexibility impacts the allocation of labor across firms. Specifically, we investigate how differences in labor-intensity or capital-intensity in production affect employment decisions under various degrees of exchange rate regime flexibility. In a simple theoretical model, we show that firms utilizing more labor-intensive production technologies are more likely to expand their employment when the exchange rate they face becomes less flexible. In contrast, firms employing more capital-intensive technology tend to hire more workers when the exchange rate is more flexible. We test our theory using granular firm-level data from China and provide robust evidence supporting the theoretical predictions.

本文考察了汇率制度灵活性对企业间劳动力配置的影响。具体来说，我们研究了在不同程度的汇率制度灵活性下，生产中劳动强度或资本强度的差异如何影响就业决策。在一个简单的理论模型中，我们表明，当企业面临的汇率变得不那么灵活时，使用更多劳动密集型生产技术的企业更有可能扩大就业。相反，当汇率更灵活时，雇佣更多资本密集型技术的公司倾向于雇佣更多的工人。我们使用来自中国的颗粒级企业数据来检验我们的理论，并提供有力的证据来支持理论预测。

引用次数: 0

Government spending dynamics in small open economies 小型开放经济体的政府支出动态

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103483

Raphaelle G. Coulombe , Jaroslav Horvath

Compared to small open advanced economies (AEs), emerging market economies (EMEs) exhibit simultaneously higher volatility and procyclicality of government spending, two features likely to amplify business cycle fluctuations. To rationalize these stylized facts, we augment the canonical small open economy model with heterogeneous parties and repeated elections with endogenous voting. We relate the distinct dynamics of government spending in EMEs to a combination of larger interest rate fluctuations and a higher degree of political polarization. While, on their own, interest rate shocks and political polarization account, respectively, for about a quarter and a half of government spending variance in EMEs, we show that higher political polarization amplifies the macroeconomic effects of interest rate shocks by increasing political turnover. We provide corroborating evidence for this mechanism by documenting that EMEs exhibit, on average, larger political turnover than AEs.

与小型开放的发达经济体（ae）相比，新兴市场经济体（eme）同时表现出更高的波动性和政府支出的顺周期性，这两个特征可能会放大商业周期波动。为了使这些风格化的事实合理化，我们用异质政党和内生投票的重复选举来增强规范的小型开放经济模型。我们将eme中政府支出的独特动态与较大的利率波动和较高程度的政治两极分化联系起来。虽然利率冲击和政治极化本身分别占到eme政府支出差异的四分之一和一半左右，但我们表明，更高的政治极化通过增加政治更替放大了利率冲击的宏观经济效应。我们通过记录EMEs表现出平均比ae更大的政治流动率，为这一机制提供了确凿的证据。

引用次数: 0

The trade-inflation nexus: The role of production networks 贸易-通货膨胀关系：生产网络的作用

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103484

Thuy Hang Duong , Weifeng Larry Liu

From the 1990s until the COVID-19 pandemic, the world experienced a sustained period of low and stable inflation, alongside a marked increase in trade integration among countries. This paper examines the impacts of international trade on inflation through domestic production networks. We first construct a theoretical model of an open economy to illustrate how domestic input–output networks propagate the price impacts of trade shocks. Using Australia as a case study, we find that the network impacts of trade shocks on inflation are as significant as their direct impacts, and primarily propagate upstream, based on data from 47 manufacturing industries from 2000 to 2023. Australia’s low inflation before COVID benefited from increased exposure to China’s low-cost exports, while inflation surged during episodes of global supply chain disruptions, among other factors. This paper underscores the importance of economic globalization and production structures for inflation, and offers several implications for monetary and trade policies.

从20世纪90年代到2019冠状病毒病大流行，世界经历了持续的低而稳定的通货膨胀时期，同时各国之间的贸易一体化显著加强。本文通过国内生产网络考察国际贸易对通货膨胀的影响。我们首先构建了一个开放经济的理论模型，以说明国内投入产出网络如何传播贸易冲击的价格影响。以澳大利亚为例，基于2000年至2023年47个制造业的数据，我们发现贸易冲击对通胀的网络影响与其直接影响一样显著，并且主要是向上游传播。澳大利亚在新冠肺炎之前的低通胀得益于对中国低成本出口的敞口增加，而在全球供应链中断等因素期间，通胀飙升。本文强调了经济全球化和生产结构对通货膨胀的重要性，并对货币和贸易政策提出了几点启示。

引用次数: 0

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