Journal of International Money and Finance最新文献

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Spillovers between cryptocurrencies and financial markets in a global framework 全球框架下加密货币与金融市场之间的溢出效应

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103235

Darko B. Vuković , Michael Frömmel , Samuel A. Vigne , Vyacheslav Zinovev

We employ the Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression (BGVAR) model to examine the transmission of adverse shocks originating in the cryptocurrency market to global financial markets. The analysis shows that these spillover effects are not limited to a specific group of countries but are instead global in nature. The results indicate that shocks originating in the cryptocurrency market adversely affect stock markets, bond indices, exchange rates, and volatility indices. These shocks, while typically moderate in magnitude and short in duration, suggest that cryptocurrencies act as mediators of short-term negative shocks. The study also underscores the heterogeneous nature of these impacts across different financial markets and countries, highlighting the varying sensitivities and responses to cryptocurrency market fluctuations. Importantly, this research represents the first application of the GVAR model in the context of the cryptocurrency market, to the best of our knowledge.

我们采用贝叶斯全球向量自回归（BGVAR）模型来研究源于加密货币市场的不利冲击向全球金融市场的传导。分析表明，这些溢出效应并不局限于特定的国家群体，而是具有全球性。结果表明，源自加密货币市场的冲击会对股票市场、债券指数、汇率和波动率指数产生不利影响。这些冲击通常幅度不大，持续时间较短，但表明加密货币是短期负面冲击的媒介。这项研究还强调了这些冲击在不同金融市场和国家的异质性，突出了对加密货币市场波动的不同敏感性和反应。重要的是，据我们所知，这项研究是 GVAR 模型在加密货币市场背景下的首次应用。

引用次数: 0

A post-pandemic new normal for interest rates in emerging bond markets? Evidence from Chile 大流行后新兴债券市场利率的新常态？智利的证据

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103234

Luis Ceballos, Jens H.E. Christensen, Damian Romero

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers intensely debated the extent of the decline in the so-called equilibrium or natural rate of interest. Given the recent sharp increase in interest rates, we revisit this question in an emerging bond market context and offer a Chilean perspective using a dynamic term structure finance model estimated directly on the prices of individual Chilean inflation-indexed bonds with adjustments for bond-specific liquidity risk and real term premia. Beyond documenting the existence of large and time-varying liquidity risk premia in the bond prices, we estimate that the equilibrium real rate in Chile fell about 2 and a half percentage points in the 2003-2022 period and has remained low since then with model projections only suggesting a gradual reversal in coming years. Instead, recent increases in real interest rates in Chile are driven by spikes in the liquidity and term premia of inflation-indexed bond prices.

在 COVID-19 大流行之前，研究人员对所谓的均衡利率或自然利率的下降程度进行了激烈的辩论。鉴于近期利率急剧上升，我们在新兴债券市场的背景下重新审视了这一问题，并从智利的视角出发，使用动态期限结构融资模型直接估算了智利个别通胀指数债券的价格，并对债券特有的流动性风险和实际期限溢价进行了调整。除了记录债券价格中存在巨大且随时间变化的流动性风险溢价外，我们还估计智利的均衡实际利率在 2003-2022 年期间下降了约 2.5 个百分点，此后一直保持低位，模型预测仅表明未来几年会逐渐逆转。相反，近期智利实际利率的上升是由通胀指数债券价格的流动性和期限溢价的飙升推动的。

引用次数: 0

How U.S. tariffs impact China’s domestic sourcing: Evidence from firm-to-firm transactions 美国关税如何影响中国的国内采购：来自企业间交易的证据

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103216

Binkai Chen , Dongmei Guo , Yuting Li , Junjie Xia , Mingzhi Xu

This paper investigates how tariff shocks influence the domestic performance of Chinese firms, leveraging quarterly data on both international and domestic transactions from 2017 to 2018. Our analysis uncovers several key findings: (i) a one percent increase in export tariffs leads to a 0.235 percent increase in sales to domestic buyers, suggesting that higher export costs drive suppliers to prioritize domestic markets, primarily affecting the extensive margin; (ii) a similar increase in countervailing import tariffs results in a 0.995 percent decrease in domestic purchases, underscoring a complementary relationship between China’s imported intermediates and domestic products; (iii) larger firms exhibit smaller magnitudes of domestic sales and are more likely to reduce their domestic intermediate inputs in response to a negative external risk. These findings highlight that understanding the complementary relationship between imports and domestic inputs is crucial for developing strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of tariff policies on domestic production.

本文利用 2017 年至 2018 年国际和国内交易的季度数据，研究关税冲击如何影响中国企业的国内业绩。我们的分析发现了几个关键结论：(i) 出口关税增加 1%，导致对国内买家的销售额增加 0.235%，这表明出口成本上升促使供应商优先考虑国内市场，主要影响广义边际；(ii) 反补贴进口关税的类似增加导致国内采购量减少 0.995% ，这凸显了中国进口中间产品与国内产品之间的互补关系；(iii) 大型企业的国内销售规模较小，更有可能减少国内中间投入以应对负面的外部风险。这些发现突出表明，了解进口与国内投入之间的互补关系对于制定战略以减轻关税政策对国内生产的不利影响至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Innovation’s false spring: U.S. export controls and Chinese patent quality 创新的假春天：美国出口管制与中国专利质量

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103229

Yankun Kang , Xin Ma , Mi Xie , Ninghua Zhong

This paper evaluates the effect of U.S. export restrictions, enacted in 2018, on China’s patent production. An analysis of patent-level datasets indicates a significant surge in Chinese patent filings in sanctioned technological domains. This quantitative growth, however, is accompanied by a decrease in patent quality, evidenced by reduced citation counts and market worth. Specifically, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have witnessed a substantial rise in patent filings post-2018, while private firms exhibit a more modest increase. Despite the surge in patent quantity, the overall quality of patents—particularly those originating from SOEs—has deteriorated significantly. This study contributes to the body of research concerning the economic consequences of the US-China trade dispute and offers original insights into the implications of trade sanctions on innovation quality.

本文评估了 2018 年颁布的美国出口限制措施对中国专利生产的影响。对专利层面数据集的分析表明，中国在受制裁技术领域的专利申请量显著激增。然而，在数量增长的同时，专利质量却有所下降，这体现在引用次数和市场价值的降低上。具体而言，2018 年后，国有企业的专利申请量大幅上升，而民营企业的增幅则较小。尽管专利数量激增，但专利的整体质量--尤其是来自国有企业的专利--却明显下降。本研究为有关中美贸易争端的经济后果的研究做出了贡献，并就贸易制裁对创新质量的影响提出了独到见解。

引用次数: 0

Trade circumvention in free trade areas 自由贸易区的贸易规避

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103232

Jianpeng Deng, Jialin Li, Joseph Mai, Yanmin Shi, Linke Zhu

Do Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) incentivize non-member countries to engage in trade circumvention through member countries, and how much does this behavior contribute to increased trade among RTA members? This paper provides empirical evidence on the prevalence of illicit transshipment through RTAs and quantifies its contribution to trade growth in a case study of NAFTA. Using global trade data and guided by a discrete choice model of shipment methods, we estimate the causal impact of tariff differentials created by RTAs on illicit transshipment, inferred from trade discrepancies. Our results show that circumvention increases more for products with larger preferential margins after the establishment of an RTA, with re-exports serving as a key channel. We also find substantial heterogeneity in these effects. In the case of NAFTA, we find that trade circumvention contributed to 16.4% of the increase in U.S. imports from Mexico in 2018, when the U.S. returned to protectionist policies.

区域贸易协定（RTA）是否会激励非成员国通过成员国进行贸易规避，这种行为对区域贸易协定成员国之间贸易增长的贡献有多大？本文通过对北美自由贸易协定的案例研究，提供了有关通过区域贸易协定进行非法转运的普遍性的经验证据，并量化了其对贸易增长的贡献。我们利用全球贸易数据，并以离散选择模型的装运方法为指导，根据贸易差额推断，估算了区域贸易协定造成的关税差异对非法转运的因果影响。我们的结果表明，在区域贸易协定建立后，优惠幅度较大的产品的规避行为增加较多，而转口贸易是一个关键渠道。我们还发现这些影响存在很大的异质性。在北美自由贸易协定的案例中，我们发现，2018 年美国从墨西哥进口的增加中有 16.4% 是贸易规避造成的，当时美国恢复了保护主义政策。

引用次数: 0

Geopolitical turmoil and investor green preference: Evidence from the corporate bond market 地缘政治动荡与投资者的绿色偏好：来自公司债券市场的证据

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103218

Paolo Fiorillo , Antonio Meles , Dario Salerno , Vincenzo Verdoliva

In this study, we analyze a sample of 1,630 corporate green bonds issued internationally between November 2012 and January 2024 to investigate the yield differences between green and non-green bonds. Our findings reveal a small greenium, particularly significant in the secondary market among carbon-intensive industries, first-time green bond issuers, and riskier issuances. We show that Geopolitical Risk (GPR) significantly influences the greenium in the secondary market, primarily driven by geopolitical acts rather than threats. Additionally, we establish that third-party certifications and corporate exposure to environmental risk are critical in explaining the GPR-greenium relationship. These results underscore the importance of GPR in enhancing investor preference for green bonds, offering important implications for both practice and policy.

在本研究中，我们分析了 2012 年 11 月至 2024 年 1 月期间国际上发行的 1,630 种企业绿色债券样本，以研究绿色债券与非绿色债券之间的收益率差异。我们的研究结果表明，在二级市场上，碳密集型行业、首次发行绿色债券的公司和风险较高的发行公司的绿色债券收益率差距较小，尤其显著。我们的研究表明，地缘政治风险（GPR）对二级市场的绿色指数有重大影响，主要是受地缘政治行为而非威胁的驱动。此外，我们还发现，第三方认证和企业面临的环境风险是解释地缘政治风险与绿币关系的关键。这些结果强调了 GPR 在增强投资者对绿色债券偏好方面的重要性，为实践和政策提供了重要启示。

引用次数: 0

Carbon risk and corporate maturity mismatch 碳风险和企业期限错配

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103213

Ming Huang , Xiaoxiao Wang , Xuewu Wang , Qunzi Zhang

This study investigates the impact of carbon risk on the corporate maturity mismatch of investment and debt. We find that carbon risk exacerbates maturity mismatches, primarily by increasing debt default risk, which in turn reduces both the availability and maturity of bank loans. At the same time, carbon risk drives firms to undertake riskier investments, compelling them to rely more heavily on short-term financing to support long-term projects. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact of carbon risk on maturity mismatch is more pronounced in firms that are smaller in size, exhibit weaker financial performance, have higher leverage, hold less cash, or engage in less green innovation. Moreover, under heightened carbon risk, increased maturity mismatch appears to reduce agency costs and enhance firm performance, thereby improving resource allocation. This finding supports the monitoring role of maturity mismatch. Our results remain robust across multiple sensitivity tests.

本研究探讨了碳风险对企业投资和债务期限错配的影响。我们发现，碳风险加剧了期限错配，主要是通过增加债务违约风险，这反过来又降低了银行贷款的可用性和期限。同时，碳风险促使企业进行更高风险的投资，迫使它们更加依赖短期融资来支持长期项目。异质性分析表明，碳风险对期限错配的影响在规模较小、财务表现较弱、杠杆率较高、现金持有量较少或绿色创新较少的企业中更为明显。此外，在碳风险增加的情况下，期限错配的增加似乎可以降低代理成本，提高企业绩效，从而改善资源配置。这一发现支持了期限错配的监督作用。我们的结果在多个敏感性测试中都保持稳健。

引用次数: 0

Not all banking crises are alike: Assessing their distributional impacts relative to pre-crisis credit gaps 并非所有的银行危机都是一样的：评估危机前信贷缺口对分配的影响

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2024-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103220

Jean-Marc Atsebi , Samuel Ligonnière , Clément Mathonnat

The empirical literature on the effects of banking crises on income inequality has yielded mixed findings. In this paper, we aim to reconcile these mixed results by evaluating the effects of banking crises on income inequality in relation to pre-crisis credit gaps. We apply the Local Projections methodology to a yearly panel of 68 banking crises that occurred in 59 countries over the period 1970–2017. Three key results emerge. First, banking crises lead to increased income inequality. Second, only those banking crises preceded by larger credit gaps show a significant increase in income inequality. Third, a deeper contraction in the credit supply and a higher unemployment rate are two channels that could potentially explain why inequality rises more after banking crises with larger pre-crisis credit gaps. These results underscore the importance of macroprudential policies that, as well as limiting the amplitude of the financial cycle and the associated risks of financial crises, could also play a key role in reducing the distributional consequences of banking crises.

关于银行业危机对收入不平等影响的实证文献得出的结论喜忧参半。在本文中，我们通过评估银行危机对收入不平等的影响与危机前信贷缺口的关系，旨在调和这些混杂的结果。我们将本地预测方法应用于 1970-2017 年间 59 个国家发生的 68 次银行业危机的年度面板。得出了三个关键结果。首先，银行危机导致收入不平等加剧。其次，只有那些在发生银行危机之前信贷缺口较大的国家，收入不平等才会显著增加。第三，信贷供应的深度收缩和较高的失业率这两个渠道有可能解释为什么危机前信贷缺口较大的银行业危机后不平等现象加剧。这些结果凸显了宏观审慎政策的重要性，除了限制金融周期的幅度和金融危机的相关风险外，宏观审慎政策还可以在减少银行危机的分配后果方面发挥关键作用。

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引用次数: 0

Nothing special about an allowance for corporate equity: Evidence from Italian banks 公司股权备抵并无特别之处：意大利银行的证据

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2024-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103219

Dennis Dreusch , Felix Noth , Peter Reichling

This paper analyzes the impact of reduced tax incentives for equity financing on banks' regulatory capital ratios under the Basel III regime. We are particularly interested in a recent interest rate cut in the Italian corporate equity allowance, which reduces the relative tax advantage of equity financing. The results show that banks respond to this increased tax disparity by significantly reducing their regulatory capital while at the same time reducing their risk-taking. The decline in capital is more pronounced for small banks and outweighs the initial capital gains from the introduction of this tax instrument. Our results challenge the use of equity allowances, in that financial stability gains persist only as long as costly tax subsidies remain intact and diminish as the size of the subsidy is reduced.

本文分析了《巴塞尔协议 III》制度下股权融资税收优惠减少对银行监管资本比率的影响。我们尤其关注最近意大利企业股权津贴利率的下调，因为这降低了股权融资的相对税收优势。研究结果表明，银行会通过大幅降低监管资本来应对税收差距的扩大，同时减少风险承担。小型银行的资本下降更为明显，超过了引入这一税收工具所带来的初始资本收益。我们的研究结果对股权津贴的使用提出了质疑，因为只有当成本高昂的税收补贴保持不变时，金融稳定性收益才会持续存在，并随着补贴规模的缩小而减少。

引用次数: 0

Fiscal policy design and inflation: The COVID-19 pandemic experience 财政政策设计与通货膨胀：COVID-19 大流行病的经验

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance

Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103210

Galina Hale , John Leer , Fernanda Nechio

The significant rise in inflation (nearly) worldwide has been associated with different shocks and a range of policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We study how the design of fiscal support measures helps explain the origins of the post-pandemic inflationary bout by exploring the heterogeneity of fiscal support measures across 10 large economies. Because conventional measures of real activity were distorted in the early stages of the pandemic, we control for the underlying state of the real economy using household sentiment data. We find that five weeks following support announcements, fiscal support measures already had statistically and economically significant, albeit not large, inflationary effects. The magnitude of the effect was twice as large in an environment of improving consumer sentiment and, in that case, the effects did not differ significantly whether the fiscal support targeted consumers or firms. Moreover, the inflationary effect was larger and much more immediate if the support involved cash transfers. Our findings suggest that policy design mattered for the underlying inflationary pressures in the aftermath of the pandemic.

全球通胀率的大幅上升（几乎）与不同的冲击以及针对 COVID-19 大流行病的一系列政策应对措施有关。我们通过探讨 10 个大型经济体的财政支持措施的异质性，研究财政支持措施的设计如何有助于解释大流行后通胀飙升的根源。由于传统的实体活动衡量指标在疫情初期被扭曲，我们利用家庭情绪数据来控制实体经济的基本状况。我们发现，在宣布支持措施的五周之后，财政支持措施已经在统计和经济上产生了显著的通货膨胀效应，尽管这种效应并不大。在消费者情绪改善的情况下，这种效应的幅度是原来的两倍，而且在这种情况下，财政支持措施针对的是消费者还是企业，其效应并无明显差异。此外，如果支持涉及现金转移，则通胀效应更大、更直接。我们的研究结果表明，政策设计对大流行病后的潜在通胀压力至关重要。

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