TC activity affected the northern sea of the Shandong Peninsula over the past 1500 years and its driving mechanism

Abstract

Modern observational records indicate that the activity of tropical cyclone (TC) has been influenced by changes in tropical sea surface temperatures over the past century. However, due to a lack of direct observational records and the low resolution of current TC reconstructions, further investigation is needed to understand the driving factors behind TC activity. Additionally, key parameters such as TC paths and the extent of their impact remain unclear, with limited research on the characteristics of TC impacts in the northern sea of the Shandong Peninsula. In this study, we utilized sedimentary records from the muddy area to reconstruct the TC impact history in the northern sea of the Shandong Peninsula over the past 1500 years. Our reconstruction results indicate that TC activity affected the north China Sea region during the intervals 1000–1600 CE and 1850–2000 CE, TC activity showed an increasing and decreasing trend before and after 1300 CE, respectively. Research suggests that on a centennial scale, TCs affecting the northern sea of the Shandong Peninsula are mainly controlled by ENSO. A stronger ENSO led to increased TC activity in the region of genesis, resulting TC tracks shifting northward, which result in higher TC activity affected the BS.