Partisanship, elections and lockdowns: Evidence from US states

Abstract

In this article, we use state‐level variation in Senate elections and partisanship to understand the variation in lockdown characteristics in the US. We argue that the state‐level decision makers and their parties weigh off the perceived political costs in an election year of a depressed economy against risks to public health. Democrats and Republicans, and their voters, vary in the weights they attach to these costs and benefits. We are thus exploring the marginal effect of the party–election interaction after accounting for other likely drivers of variations in lockdown characteristics. We find that Republican states with an election have less strict and shorter lockdowns compared to Democratic states with an election. Our results have implications for the communication of pandemic policies, including vaccination strategies.