Researchers have found positive relationships between economic freedom and economic growth and negative relationships between lobbying and growth. We test the impact of policies induced by lobbying for free markets, using state‐level data to evaluate the effects of high enactment rates for bills advocated by a prominent free‐market lobbyist, the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC). Our approach accounts for the probability ALEC targets states. We find that, holding constant existing economic freedom, there is no effect on output, possibly negative effects on employment, and wage increases. States raise more revenue and increase expenditures. Poverty and inequality rise.
{"title":"Corporate influence, conservative “model bills,” and state economic outcomes","authors":"Christopher Biolsi, J. Sebastián Leguizamón","doi":"10.1111/sjpe.12400","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12400","url":null,"abstract":"Researchers have found positive relationships between economic freedom and economic growth and negative relationships between lobbying and growth. We test the impact of policies induced by lobbying for free markets, using state‐level data to evaluate the effects of high enactment rates for bills advocated by a prominent free‐market lobbyist, the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC). Our approach accounts for the probability ALEC targets states. We find that, holding constant existing economic freedom, there is no effect on output, possibly negative effects on employment, and wage increases. States raise more revenue and increase expenditures. Poverty and inequality rise.","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142181323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines the effect of inter vivos gift taxation on wealth inequality and economic growth. We develop a simple model with inter vivos gifts, which are generated by altruism and gift taxation in an overlapping generation setting. The analysis shows that an increase in the gift tax rate reduces inequality, and a positive tax rate maximizes the economic growth rate. From a policy perspective, rather than exempting gifts from taxation, raising the gift tax rate to some extent reduces inequality and promotes human capital accumulation and, therefore, economic growth.
{"title":"The effect of inter vivos gift taxation on wealth inequality and economic growth","authors":"Ryota Nakano","doi":"10.1111/sjpe.12401","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12401","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the effect of inter vivos gift taxation on wealth inequality and economic growth. We develop a simple model with inter vivos gifts, which are generated by altruism and gift taxation in an overlapping generation setting. The analysis shows that an increase in the gift tax rate reduces inequality, and a positive tax rate maximizes the economic growth rate. From a policy perspective, rather than exempting gifts from taxation, raising the gift tax rate to some extent reduces inequality and promotes human capital accumulation and, therefore, economic growth.","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142181325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We provide evidence that the quality of economic institutions in non‐democracies is not uniform, and differences in the type of political regimes lead to such variations. By dividing non‐democracies into four groups of monarchies, personal dictatorships, party dictatorships, and military dictatorships, we argue that monarchies perform better than the others due to their structural characteristics. Using a broad sample of non‐democracies, we empirically find that the performance of economic institutions is better in monarchies compared to other forms of dictatorships. Moreover, no significant difference is observed between the performance of personal, party, and military dictatorships.
{"title":"Does regime type matter for economic institutions in non‐democracies?","authors":"Reza Bakhshiani, Masoud Nili, S. Mahdi Barakchian","doi":"10.1111/sjpe.12398","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12398","url":null,"abstract":"We provide evidence that the quality of economic institutions in non‐democracies is not uniform, and differences in the type of political regimes lead to such variations. By dividing non‐democracies into four groups of monarchies, personal dictatorships, party dictatorships, and military dictatorships, we argue that monarchies perform better than the others due to their structural characteristics. Using a broad sample of non‐democracies, we empirically find that the performance of economic institutions is better in monarchies compared to other forms of dictatorships. Moreover, no significant difference is observed between the performance of personal, party, and military dictatorships.","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142181322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The nonlinear effects of uncertainty shocks on U.S. macroeconomy are examined using a smooth transition VAR model in which the dynamic relationship between the variables changes with the level of economic policy uncertainty. Our results show that the nonlinear effects of uncertainty shocks depend on the current level of uncertainty, with uncertainty shocks behaving more like stronger demand shocks in the high‐uncertainty period than in the low period. Hence, we can conclude that the negative demand shock channel of uncertainty shocks, documented in the literature, is valid especially in the high‐uncertainty period.
我们使用平滑过渡 VAR 模型研究了不确定性冲击对美国宏观经济的非线性影响，在该模型中，变量之间的动态关系随着经济政策不确定性水平的变化而变化。我们的结果表明，不确定性冲击的非线性效应取决于当前的不确定性水平，不确定性冲击在高不确定性时期比在低不确定性时期表现得更像更强的需求冲击。因此，我们可以得出结论，文献中记载的不确定性冲击的负面需求冲击渠道是有效的，尤其是在高不确定性时期。
{"title":"Nonlinear effects of uncertainty shocks: State dependency and asymmetry","authors":"Hiroshi Morita, Shiro Yuasa","doi":"10.1111/sjpe.12399","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12399","url":null,"abstract":"The nonlinear effects of uncertainty shocks on U.S. macroeconomy are examined using a smooth transition VAR model in which the dynamic relationship between the variables changes with the level of economic policy uncertainty. Our results show that the nonlinear effects of uncertainty shocks depend on the current level of uncertainty, with uncertainty shocks behaving more like stronger demand shocks in the high‐uncertainty period than in the low period. Hence, we can conclude that the negative demand shock channel of uncertainty shocks, documented in the literature, is valid especially in the high‐uncertainty period.","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141884059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nicolás Cachanosky, Emilio Ocampo, Karla C. Hernández, John Ramseur
This paper studies the impact of dollarization on the evolution of GDP per capita in Ecuador using synthetic control analysis (SCA). The results suggest a significant likelihood of a positive impact of dollarization. These results are relevant for countries with a history of high, persistent, and volatile inflation considering dollarization as a currency regime.
{"title":"Did dollarization help Ecuador?","authors":"Nicolás Cachanosky, Emilio Ocampo, Karla C. Hernández, John Ramseur","doi":"10.1111/sjpe.12397","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12397","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the impact of dollarization on the evolution of GDP per capita in Ecuador using synthetic control analysis (SCA). The results suggest a significant likelihood of a positive impact of dollarization. These results are relevant for countries with a history of high, persistent, and volatile inflation considering dollarization as a currency regime.","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141776717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We construct a three‐level constant elasticity of substitution production model. Labour is split into three components: (i) low‐skilled labour, (ii) high‐skilled labour with a traditional education background, and (iii) high‐skilled labour with an AI‐based education background. Rising use of automation in production will cause a rise in the skill premium (wages of both types of high‐skilled workers relative to low‐skilled workers) and AI skill premium (wages of high‐skilled labour with an AI‐based education relative to those with a traditional education background). Dependent on the value of the elasticity, automation may favour high‐skilled workers with an AI‐based education background.
{"title":"The AI revolution with 21st century skills: Implications for the wage inequality and technical change","authors":"Rachael Grant, Murat Üngör","doi":"10.1111/sjpe.12395","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12395","url":null,"abstract":"We construct a three‐level constant elasticity of substitution production model. Labour is split into three components: (i) low‐skilled labour, (ii) high‐skilled labour with a traditional education background, and (iii) high‐skilled labour with an AI‐based education background. Rising use of automation in production will cause a rise in the skill premium (wages of both types of high‐skilled workers relative to low‐skilled workers) and AI skill premium (wages of high‐skilled labour with an AI‐based education relative to those with a traditional education background). Dependent on the value of the elasticity, automation may favour high‐skilled workers with an AI‐based education background.","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141776718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examine the house price convergence across 12 OECD countries over the period 1905–2016. Using novel quantile unit root tests which allow for smooth breaks via a Fourier expansion series, we find that nine countries show the presence of relative house price convergence at all the quantiles. Focusing on several specific quantiles, 11 countries have significant convergence tendencies. Moreover, there are four definite patterns related to shocks in the relative house prices across quantiles.
{"title":"House price convergence in the very long run","authors":"Lei Pan, Takashi Matsuki","doi":"10.1111/sjpe.12394","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12394","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the house price convergence across 12 OECD countries over the period 1905–2016. Using novel quantile unit root tests which allow for smooth breaks via a Fourier expansion series, we find that nine countries show the presence of relative house price convergence at all the quantiles. Focusing on several specific quantiles, 11 countries have significant convergence tendencies. Moreover, there are four definite patterns related to shocks in the relative house prices across quantiles.","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141743338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ayobami E. Ilori, Cosmas Dery, Lucia M. Murgia, Dennis Nsafoah
This paper examines the heterogeneous effects of monetary policy on consumer prices in the United Kingdom. We estimate a proxy Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model, using extended high‐frequency monetary surprises from Cesa‐Bianchi et al. (European Economic Review, 123, 2020, 103375) to instrument shifts in UK monetary policy. We then analyze the impulse responses for various components of the UK Consumer Price Index. Our findings reveal that while monetary policy tightening leads to a persistent decline in aggregate consumer prices, the impact on disaggregated components is highly heterogeneous. Notably, we observe that energy price changes offset movements in food, beverage, and tobacco prices, resulting in identical responses of core and headline consumer CPIH inflation measures. The contrasting effects across different CPI components highlight the importance of examining disaggregated data when assessing the transmission of monetary policy to consumer prices.
{"title":"Monetary policy and heterogeneous price effects in the United Kingdom","authors":"Ayobami E. Ilori, Cosmas Dery, Lucia M. Murgia, Dennis Nsafoah","doi":"10.1111/sjpe.12396","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12396","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the heterogeneous effects of monetary policy on consumer prices in the United Kingdom. We estimate a proxy Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model, using extended high‐frequency monetary surprises from Cesa‐Bianchi et al. (<jats:italic>European Economic Review</jats:italic>, 123, 2020, 103375) to instrument shifts in UK monetary policy. We then analyze the impulse responses for various components of the UK Consumer Price Index. Our findings reveal that while monetary policy tightening leads to a persistent decline in aggregate consumer prices, the impact on disaggregated components is highly heterogeneous. Notably, we observe that energy price changes offset movements in food, beverage, and tobacco prices, resulting in identical responses of core and headline consumer CPIH inflation measures. The contrasting effects across different CPI components highlight the importance of examining disaggregated data when assessing the transmission of monetary policy to consumer prices.","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":"90 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141743065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Panagiotis Delis, Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, Theodosios Palaskas, Chrysostomos Stoforos
We assess the determinants of regional business cycle synchronization in Greece vis‐à‐vis the national reference business cycle, using NUTSII annual data. The computation of the time‐varying synchronization is based on the dynamic estimate of a conditional variance–covariance model and subsequently, a panel regression model is used to evaluate its determinants. The findings show that island regions, industrial structure, imports, savings and disposable income are the key determinants, based on the GVA business cycle synchronization vis‐à‐vis the national reference cycle. We also assess the determinants of employment synchronization (vis‐à‐vis the national employment level) and we find that regions with higher disposable income and public spending tend to drive the level of synchronization. Turning to the inter‐regional synchronization, we provide evidence that investments, disposable income and employment drive the GVA business cycle synchronization, whereas the employment synchronization is determined by the level of imports, disposable income and public spending, as well as by the status of regions as island economies. We further show that the Greek economic crisis during the period 2010–2018 has diminished or eliminated the effects of the aforementioned drivers, suggesting that during the said period, synchronization was mainly driven by the wider economic conditions. These findings lead to important policy implications, which are thoroughly discussed.
{"title":"Determinants of regional business cycle synchronization in Greece","authors":"Panagiotis Delis, Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, Theodosios Palaskas, Chrysostomos Stoforos","doi":"10.1111/sjpe.12393","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12393","url":null,"abstract":"We assess the determinants of regional business cycle synchronization in Greece vis‐à‐vis the national reference business cycle, using NUTSII annual data. The computation of the time‐varying synchronization is based on the dynamic estimate of a conditional variance–covariance model and subsequently, a panel regression model is used to evaluate its determinants. The findings show that island regions, industrial structure, imports, savings and disposable income are the key determinants, based on the GVA business cycle synchronization vis‐à‐vis the national reference cycle. We also assess the determinants of employment synchronization (vis‐à‐vis the national employment level) and we find that regions with higher disposable income and public spending tend to drive the level of synchronization. Turning to the inter‐regional synchronization, we provide evidence that investments, disposable income and employment drive the GVA business cycle synchronization, whereas the employment synchronization is determined by the level of imports, disposable income and public spending, as well as by the status of regions as island economies. We further show that the Greek economic crisis during the period 2010–2018 has diminished or eliminated the effects of the aforementioned drivers, suggesting that during the said period, synchronization was mainly driven by the wider economic conditions. These findings lead to important policy implications, which are thoroughly discussed.","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":"87 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141192659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this article, we use state‐level variation in Senate elections and partisanship to understand the variation in lockdown characteristics in the US. We argue that the state‐level decision makers and their parties weigh off the perceived political costs in an election year of a depressed economy against risks to public health. Democrats and Republicans, and their voters, vary in the weights they attach to these costs and benefits. We are thus exploring the marginal effect of the party–election interaction after accounting for other likely drivers of variations in lockdown characteristics. We find that Republican states with an election have less strict and shorter lockdowns compared to Democratic states with an election. Our results have implications for the communication of pandemic policies, including vaccination strategies.
{"title":"Partisanship, elections and lockdowns: Evidence from US states","authors":"Gail Pacheco, Dennis Wesselbaum","doi":"10.1111/sjpe.12392","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12392","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, we use state‐level variation in Senate elections and partisanship to understand the variation in lockdown characteristics in the US. We argue that the state‐level decision makers and their parties weigh off the perceived political costs in an election year of a depressed economy against risks to public health. Democrats and Republicans, and their voters, vary in the weights they attach to these costs and benefits. We are thus exploring the marginal effect of the party–election interaction after accounting for other likely drivers of variations in lockdown characteristics. We find that Republican states with an election have less strict and shorter lockdowns compared to Democratic states with an election. Our results have implications for the communication of pandemic policies, including vaccination strategies.","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141145838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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