A novel fractional multivariate grey prediction model for forecasting hydroelectricity consumption

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to enhance the prediction accuracy of hydroelectricity consumption in China, with a focus on addressing the challenges posed by complex and nonlinear characteristics of the data. A novel grey multivariate prediction model with structural optimization is proposed to overcome the limitations of existing grey forecasting methods.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper innovatively introduces fractional order and nonlinear parameter terms to develop a novel fractional multivariate grey prediction model based on the NSGM(1, N) model. The Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm is then utilized to compute the model’s hyperparameters. Subsequently, the proposed model is applied to forecast China’s hydroelectricity consumption and is compared with other models for analysis.

Findings

Theoretical derivation results demonstrate that the new model has good compatibility. Empirical results indicate that the FMGM(1, N, a) model outperforms other models in predicting the hydroelectricity consumption of China. This demonstrates the model’s effectiveness in handling complex and nonlinear data, emphasizing its practical applicability.

Practical implications

This paper introduces a scientific and efficient method for forecasting hydroelectricity consumption in China, particularly when confronted with complexity and nonlinearity. The predicted results can provide a solid support for China’s hydroelectricity resource development scheduling and planning.

Originality/value

The primary contribution of this paper is to propose a novel fractional multivariate grey prediction model that can handle nonlinear and complex series more effectively.