Recent northward shift of tropical cyclone economic risk in China

Abstract

The impact of tropical cyclones (TCs) has intensified with continued global warming and socio-economic development. Quantifying the TC economic exposure is a core element of economic risk assessment for TCs. The centroid of annual economic exposure to TCs in China shifted northward at a rate of 19.71 km per year from 2006 to 2020, where changes in the TC tracks contributed a northward shift of 11.22 km per year and changes in GDP distribution contributed a northward shift of 7.75 km per year. The northward shift of TC economic exposure centroid is more than twice as sensitive to the shift of GDP distribution as to that of TC tracks. The phenomenon of the northward shift in TC economic exposure is particularly evident in the subtropical zone in China. Further northward shift of TC exposure could potentially cause higher socio-economic losses in places underprepared for TC hazards. Our result provides references for TC disaster mitigation and preparedness in China.