Reconstruction of drought at the desert margin in northern China over the past 279 years using tree-ring widths

Abstract

Unstable environments intensify the frequency of extreme disasters. Long-term climate changes can lead to agricultural and ecological degradation that threatens population sustainability. To better understand past climatic events and consequences, here we present a reconstruction of the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI) from September to August for the desert margins of northern China, dating back to 1742. The reconstruction accounts for 42.9% of the variation of meteorological data between 1951 and 2020. Our spatial correlation analyses showed significant correlations between scPDSI, runoff, and precipitation. Over the past 279 years, the study area has undergone nine dry and eight wet periods, with the most severe climate extremes between the 1850s and 1890s. This period of prolonged drought in northeastern China coincided with the combined impacts of climatic factors and human influences, contributing to the fall of the Qing Dynasty. Analysis of periodicity and anomalies in sea surface temperatures indicate a strong association between wet and dry cycles and El Niño-Southern Oscillations. Our findings offer insights into long-term dry and wet fluctuations at the desert margins in northern China and elucidate the relationship between drought and the dynamics of civilizations. They also highlight the potential impact of extremes in climate on modern society, especially under the four projected shared socioeconomic pathways climatic scenarios, which predict worsening droughts in northern China.