Agricultural commodities’ price transmission from international to local markets in developing countries

IF 6.8 1区经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Food Policy Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI:10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102652

Lotanna E. Emediegwu , Marco Rogna

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Abstract

The transmission of commodities prices from international to local markets is an interesting and deeply investigated topic. A fast and strong link between the two levels of the market is seen by economists as a sign of local market efficiency, allowing actors to respond fast to signals coming from the international market. However, empirical evidence on the topic is mixed, ranging from a very weak linkage between prices in the two markets to a high-speed and almost complete transmission. The present paper aims to advance the knowledge on the topic by focusing on the price transmission of four main cereals – maize, rice, sorghum, and wheat – in 23 developing and fragile economies. Employing a recent World Bank dataset with prices for several local markets in select countries, we estimate panel vector autoregressions (PVAR) to analyze the pass-through effects of international price shocks on local food prices. We find evidence for a relatively strong price transmission elasticity for all commodities except sorghum. Furthermore, the observed transmission of shocks is almost immediate. We present the policy implications of these findings.

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发展中国家农产品价格从国际市场传导到当地市场的情况

商品价格从国际市场向本地市场的传递是一个有趣而又需要深入研究的课题。经济学家认为，两级市场之间快速而有力的联系是本地市场效率的标志，使参与者能够对来自国际市场的信号做出快速反应。然而，有关这一主题的经验证据不一，从两个市场价格之间非常微弱的联系到高速和几乎完全的传递，不一而足。本文旨在通过重点研究 23 个发展中经济体和脆弱经济体的四种主要谷物--玉米、大米、高粱和小麦--的价格传导，推进对这一主题的认识。我们利用世界银行最近的一个数据集（其中包含若干国家当地市场的价格），估计了面板向量自回归（PVAR），分析了国际价格冲击对当地粮食价格的传递效应。我们发现，除高粱外，所有商品的价格传导弹性都相对较强。此外，观察到的冲击传递几乎是即时的。我们介绍了这些发现对政策的影响。

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来源期刊

Food Policy 管理科学-农业经济与政策

CiteScore

11.40

自引率

4.60%

发文量

128

审稿时长

62 days

期刊介绍： Food Policy is a multidisciplinary journal publishing original research and novel evidence on issues in the formulation, implementation, and evaluation of policies for the food sector in developing, transition, and advanced economies. Our main focus is on the economic and social aspect of food policy, and we prioritize empirical studies informing international food policy debates. Provided that articles make a clear and explicit contribution to food policy debates of international interest, we consider papers from any of the social sciences. Papers from other disciplines (e.g., law) will be considered only if they provide a key policy contribution, and are written in a style which is accessible to a social science readership.