Pub Date : 2026-01-23DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103034
Stefan Hirsch , Ayoub Barissoul , Niklas Möhring , Max Koppenberg
Global policy goals have been set for the expansion of organic farming. However, in most European countries, progress towards this goal is limited, with some organic farmers reverting to conventional production or ceasing production altogether. While various studies have addressed the profitability of organic farming, holistic evidence on the EU level and on farmers’ exit decisions is still lacking. We use a large dataset covering 71% of the EU market to analyze the relationship between dairy farmers’ decision to produce organically and their profitability. Moreover, we investigate the decision of these farmers to exit organic production. Our results reveal that organic farms achieve, on average, a higher profitability. However, the probability of exiting the organic market increases consistently in the years after conversion, peaking in year eight, which reflects difficulties in the transition process. Subsequently, exit probabilities decrease as farms seem to have familiarized themselves with organic production methods and positioned themselves in the sector. Finally, downward fluctuations in profitability and price premiums for organic milk are associated with a higher exit probability. The results show that policy-makers should specifically target the early phase after conversion and provide risk management instruments to support policy targets for organic production.
{"title":"Profitability and exit decisions of organic dairy farmers in the EU","authors":"Stefan Hirsch , Ayoub Barissoul , Niklas Möhring , Max Koppenberg","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103034","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103034","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global policy goals have been set for the expansion of organic farming. However, in most European countries, progress towards this goal is limited, with some organic farmers reverting to conventional production or ceasing production altogether. While various studies have addressed the profitability of organic farming, holistic evidence on the EU level and on farmers’ exit decisions is still lacking. We use a large dataset covering 71% of the EU market to analyze the relationship between dairy farmers’ decision to produce organically and their profitability. Moreover, we investigate the decision of these farmers to exit organic production. Our results reveal that organic farms achieve, on average, a higher profitability. However, the probability of exiting the organic market increases consistently in the years after conversion, peaking in year eight, which reflects difficulties in the transition process. Subsequently, exit probabilities decrease as farms seem to have familiarized themselves with organic production methods and positioned themselves in the sector. Finally, downward fluctuations in profitability and price premiums for organic milk are associated with a higher exit probability. The results show that policy-makers should specifically target the early phase after conversion and provide risk management instruments to support policy targets for organic production.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103034"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146024707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-19DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103035
Hangyu Zhang , Yujing Song , Yue Wang , Jikun Huang
Digital technologies hold potential to transform smallholder agriculture, but their impacts on production are not yet well understood. Using original survey data from Chinese maize farmers, we examine the adoption and impacts of Drone Plant Protection (DPP), a rapidly emerging agricultural technology. We find that adoption is associated with both economic and health considerations: DPP is linked to substantially lower operational costs (-29%) and pesticide exposure time (-90%), and suggests a lower incidence of self-reported pesticide-related health symptoms (-83%). Regarding impacts, a two-way fixed-effects model reveals that DPP users’ pesticide application frequency is 33% higher, primarily during post-tasseling stages. Estimating a damage control production function, we show that these behavioral adjustments are associated with a reduction in yield loss by 4.6% and align with farmer profit maximization. However, despite drones’ precision capabilities, per-round pesticide expenditure remains unchanged. Our findings demonstrate digital technologies’ potential to enhance yield at lower health risk while highlighting the need for policy interventions addressing institutional and technological barriers to unlock their environmental benefits.
{"title":"Refining pesticide use to reduce yield loss: How drone plant protection transforms smallholder pest management","authors":"Hangyu Zhang , Yujing Song , Yue Wang , Jikun Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103035","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103035","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digital technologies hold potential to transform smallholder agriculture, but their impacts on production are not yet well understood. Using original survey data from Chinese maize farmers, we examine the adoption and impacts of Drone Plant Protection (DPP), a rapidly emerging agricultural technology. We find that adoption is associated with both economic and health considerations: DPP is linked to substantially lower operational costs (-29%) and pesticide exposure time (-90%), and suggests a lower incidence of self-reported pesticide-related health symptoms (-83%). Regarding impacts, a two-way fixed-effects model reveals that DPP users’ pesticide application frequency is 33% higher, primarily during post-tasseling stages. Estimating a damage control production function, we show that these behavioral adjustments are associated with a reduction in yield loss by 4.6% and align with farmer profit maximization. However, despite drones’ precision capabilities, per-round pesticide expenditure remains unchanged. Our findings demonstrate digital technologies’ potential to enhance yield at lower health risk while highlighting the need for policy interventions addressing institutional and technological barriers to unlock their environmental benefits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103035"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146024324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-16DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103033
Tobias Holmsgaard Rønn , Christoph Schulze , Mikołaj Czajkowski , Bettina Matzdorf , Olga M. Moreno-Pérez , Søren Bøye Olsen , Mette Termansen , Wojciech Zawadzki
European ambitions for more sustainable food systems rely, in part, on expanding the production and consumption of food legumes. Yet European food legume value chains remain marginal, and EU and national level supporting policies are few. We apply Q–methodology to provide novel evidence about stakeholder perceptions of the relative importance of current value chain barriers and their interrelationship, while also exploring how these perceptions vary among stakeholders from different European countries. Based on a Principal Component Analysis of 91 Danish, German, Polish, and Spanish value chain stakeholders’ sorting of 28 barrier statements, we extract five shared viewpoints, pointing out the perceived most important barriers: (1) a lack of capacity for end-product production and use; (2) unattractive legume products; (3) governance, institutional and capacity gaps; (4) unfavorable food system conditions; and (5) a restricted domestic raw material production. Cross–country analyses reveal that some viewpoints are widely shared, whereas others are country–specific. Our findings underscore the need for a flexible portfolio of European and national policy measures, such as educational initiatives, institutional support, network development, and coordinated national and regional strategies, to effectively address the value chain barriers currently inhibiting the realization of the full potential of food legumes as a pathway toward a more sustainable European food system.
{"title":"Weak pulse: a Q-methodology study of stakeholder viewpoints on barriers in European food legume value chains","authors":"Tobias Holmsgaard Rønn , Christoph Schulze , Mikołaj Czajkowski , Bettina Matzdorf , Olga M. Moreno-Pérez , Søren Bøye Olsen , Mette Termansen , Wojciech Zawadzki","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103033","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103033","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>European ambitions for more sustainable food systems rely, in part, on expanding the production and consumption of food legumes. Yet European food legume value chains remain marginal, and EU and national level supporting policies are few. We apply Q–methodology to provide novel evidence about stakeholder perceptions of the relative importance of current value chain barriers and their interrelationship, while also exploring how these perceptions vary among stakeholders from different European countries. Based on a Principal Component Analysis of 91 Danish, German, Polish, and Spanish value chain stakeholders’ sorting of 28 barrier statements, we extract five shared viewpoints, pointing out the perceived most important barriers: (1) a lack of capacity for end-product production and use; (2) unattractive legume products; (3) governance, institutional and capacity gaps; (4) unfavorable food system conditions; and (5) a restricted domestic raw material production. Cross–country analyses reveal that some viewpoints are widely shared, whereas others are country–specific. Our findings underscore the need for a flexible portfolio of European and national policy measures, such as educational initiatives, institutional support, network development, and coordinated national and regional strategies, to effectively address the value chain barriers currently inhibiting the realization of the full potential of food legumes as a pathway toward a more sustainable European food system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103033"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145975347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-14DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103036
Xiaoli Hao , Erxiang Miao , Zhiyang Shen , Yuhong Li , Shuran Wang , Haitao Wu
Against the backdrop of China’s twin objectives to uphold the 1.8 billion mu arable land baseline and alleviate air pollution, this research employs the national pilot for funeral reform as a policy intervention for a natural experiment. The analysis adopts a DID methodology to estimate the causal effects of this reform on two fronts: the multifunctionality of cultivated land and the concentrations of urban air pollutants, specifically carbon monoxide (CO) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). The results indicated that the implementation of funeral reform significantly enhanced the multifunctionality of cultivated land, particularly by improving its production function and living function. These effects were more pronounced in transportation hubs and major grain-producing regions across North, Northeast, East, and Central China. Mechanism analysis demonstrated that these improvements were primarily driven by the expansion of land transfers and the reduction of land fragmentation, which facilitated the development of large-scale agricultural operations. However, a trade-off was identified, where funeral reform significantly increased local air pollution, with average CO concentrations rising by 0.0949 mg/m3 and SO2 concentrations increasing by 3.2490 µg/m3, respectively. This adverse environmental effect was largely attributable to the expansion of cemeteries and funeral home facilities accompanying the reform.
{"title":"Funeral reform, land use, and environmental consequences: evidence from China","authors":"Xiaoli Hao , Erxiang Miao , Zhiyang Shen , Yuhong Li , Shuran Wang , Haitao Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103036","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103036","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Against the backdrop of China’s twin objectives to uphold the 1.8 billion mu arable land baseline and alleviate air pollution, this research employs the national pilot for funeral reform as a policy intervention for a natural experiment. The analysis adopts a DID methodology to estimate the causal effects of this reform on two fronts: the multifunctionality of cultivated land and the concentrations of urban air pollutants, specifically carbon monoxide (CO) and sulfur dioxide (SO<sub>2</sub>). The results indicated that the implementation of funeral reform significantly enhanced the multifunctionality of cultivated land, particularly by improving its production function and living function. These effects were more pronounced in transportation hubs and major grain-producing regions across North, Northeast, East, and Central China. Mechanism analysis demonstrated that these improvements were primarily driven by the expansion of land transfers and the reduction of land fragmentation, which facilitated the development of large-scale agricultural operations. However, a trade-off was identified, where funeral reform significantly increased local air pollution, with average CO concentrations rising by 0.0949 mg/m<sup>3</sup> and SO<sub>2</sub> concentrations increasing by 3.2490 µg/m<sup>3</sup>, respectively. This adverse environmental effect was largely attributable to the expansion of cemeteries and funeral home facilities accompanying the reform.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103036"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145975348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-10DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103037
Michael Olabisi , Uswat Adeyemi , Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie
Which households experience the most significant changes in their nutritional profile during economic crises? This paper presents evidence from Nigeria’s economic crisis of 2023–24, marked by food price inflation of more than 40% at its peak. Our study investigates how household income can help alleviate the adverse effects of inflation, particularly in households with female income earners. Our findings reveal that households with income-earning women had higher dietary diversity, all else equal. However, these households are more susceptible to inflation-induced declines, particularly in rural areas. Overall, our study highlights the critical role of women income earners and the importance of diversifying household income sources to enhance resilience against economic shocks.
{"title":"Female earnings and dietary diversity: Evidence from an inflationary economic crisis","authors":"Michael Olabisi , Uswat Adeyemi , Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103037","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103037","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Which households experience the most significant changes in their nutritional profile during economic crises? This paper presents evidence from Nigeria’s economic crisis of 2023–24, marked by food price inflation of more than 40% at its peak. Our study investigates how household income can help alleviate the adverse effects of inflation, particularly in households with female income earners. Our findings reveal that households with income-earning women had higher dietary diversity, all else equal. However, these households are more susceptible to inflation-induced declines, particularly in rural areas. Overall, our study highlights the critical role of women income earners and the importance of diversifying household income sources to enhance resilience against economic shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103037"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145941521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103032
Mehdi A. Kamran , Reza Babazadeh , AmirReza Gharibi , Osman El-Said , Samira Afsharfar , Jokha Al Saqri
The rising economic, environmental, and social consequences of food waste necessitate comprehensive studies to identify the primary drivers of household food waste (HFW) and to develop effective strategies for reducing it. This study predicts Food Waste Behavior (FWB) using a two-phase approach. In the first phase, an extensive literature review, complemented by expert opinions, is conducted to identify the most influential factors contributing to HFW. A Structural Equation Model (SEM) is then developed and validated using data obtained from a customized survey of 300 Omani households to establish the theoretical relationships among these factors. Next, IF–THEN rules derived from expert input through a structured Delphi process were used to assign FWB levels to all possible combinations of identified indicators via a Full Factorial Design (FFD). This dataset was then used to train several machine learning (ML) models—including Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)—to predict FWB in households. Among these models, MLP and SVM exhibited the best performance, achieving 99% classification accuracy.
In the second phase, the focus turns to policy intervention, achieved by creating an intelligent policy recommendation system. This system is informed by a detailed review of global food waste policies, supplemented by expert insights, and customized for the Omani context. The policy recommendation tool offers tailored strategies, including incentives, aimed at improving awareness and reducing HFW behaviors. This AI-based decision support system assists policymakers in crafting and implementing targeted interventions to reduce HFW in Oman. Although validated with data from Oman, the framework is adaptable to other countries. With local survey data, the ML models can be retrained to assess FWB and recommend context-specific mitigation policies, offering a scalable, data-driven tool for global use.
{"title":"Food waste behaviour prediction and policy recommender system: data-driven machine learning approaches","authors":"Mehdi A. Kamran , Reza Babazadeh , AmirReza Gharibi , Osman El-Said , Samira Afsharfar , Jokha Al Saqri","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103032","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103032","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rising economic, environmental, and social consequences of food waste necessitate comprehensive studies to identify the primary drivers of household food waste (HFW) and to develop effective strategies for reducing it. This study predicts Food Waste Behavior (FWB) using a two-phase approach. In the first phase, an extensive literature review, complemented by expert opinions, is conducted to identify the most influential factors contributing to HFW. A Structural Equation Model (SEM) is then developed and validated using data obtained from a customized survey of 300 Omani households to establish the theoretical relationships among these factors. Next, IF–THEN rules derived from expert input through a structured Delphi process were used to assign FWB levels to all possible combinations of identified indicators via a Full Factorial Design (FFD). This dataset was then used to train several machine learning (ML) models—including Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)—to predict FWB in households. Among these models, MLP and SVM exhibited the best performance, achieving 99% classification accuracy.</div><div>In the second phase, the focus turns to policy intervention, achieved by creating an intelligent policy recommendation system. This system is informed by a detailed review of global food waste policies, supplemented by expert insights, and customized for the Omani context. The policy recommendation tool offers tailored strategies, including incentives, aimed at improving awareness and reducing HFW behaviors. This AI-based decision support system assists policymakers in crafting and implementing targeted interventions to reduce HFW in Oman. Although validated with data from Oman, the framework is adaptable to other countries. With local survey data, the ML models can be retrained to assess FWB and recommend context-specific mitigation policies, offering a scalable, data-driven tool for global use.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103032"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145920756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-24DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103030
Gizem Yeter , Margherita Masi , Emanuele Dolfi , Ernesto S. Marrocco , Yari Vecchio , Piermichele La Sala , Felice Adinolfi
The circular economy has emerged as a viable alternative to the existing linear model for achieving sustainable food production and consumption. To identify the present structure of the circular economy at the policy level within the food sector, we engaged individuals involved in policymaking, referred to as a policy network. This paper presents the primary perspectives of the policy network on the adaptation and implementation of circular food consumption practices by using the Q methodology. This analysis examines the complex interplay of governance, incentives, collaborative engagement, and community-oriented strategies in achieving circularity in food consumption. Our results revealed four distinct yet complementary factor groups indicating that the transition towards circular food consumption practices should be built on societal models that emphasize resilience, shared responsibility, and shared governance, thus delivering not only a sustainable food system but also a more equitable one. In conclusion, the findings indicate that the transition entails more than a mere technical adjustment or behavioral change; it represents a complex transformation shaped by the values, priorities, and capacities of the involved policy networks.
{"title":"Voices in the loop: policy networks shaping circular food consumption","authors":"Gizem Yeter , Margherita Masi , Emanuele Dolfi , Ernesto S. Marrocco , Yari Vecchio , Piermichele La Sala , Felice Adinolfi","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103030","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103030","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The circular economy has emerged as a viable alternative to the existing linear model for achieving sustainable food production and consumption. To identify the present structure of the circular economy at the policy level within the food sector, we engaged individuals involved in policymaking, referred to as a policy network. This paper presents the primary perspectives of the policy network on the adaptation and implementation of circular food consumption practices by using the Q methodology. This analysis examines the complex interplay of governance, incentives, collaborative engagement, and community-oriented strategies in achieving circularity in food consumption. Our results revealed four distinct yet complementary factor groups indicating that the transition towards circular food consumption practices should be built on societal models that emphasize resilience, shared responsibility, and shared governance, thus delivering not only a sustainable food system but also a more equitable one. In conclusion, the findings indicate that the transition entails more than a mere technical adjustment or behavioral change; it represents a complex transformation shaped by the values, priorities, and capacities of the involved policy networks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103030"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145836544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The world relies on analyses by the United Nations-facilitated Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) to identify where populations are food insecure and to quantify the severity of these crises. IPC sub-national analyses are designed to be comparable over space and time in the more than 30 countries in which the IPC operates. Humanitarian agencies appear to regard these findings as authoritative and comparable, and as of 2024, used IPC analyses to guide more than six billion dollars of annual aid allocations. We study the consistency and comparability of IPC food insecurity analyses across time and space. Drawing on 1,849 IPC subnational analyses covering 742 million people from fifteen countries between 2019 and 2023, we show that IPC analyses face significant challenges related to data availability and food security measurement, resulting from underlying food security indicators that are often discordant. We find that the vast majority of IPC subnational analyses are consistent with IPC technical guidance, but that this guidance permits a wide range of classifications for a given set of food security indicators. We also find evidence that IPC subnational analyses vary in the way they use food security data, often weighing food security indicators differently across locations. While variation in how analyses use food security indicators can plausibly reflect varying contextual factors across countries, we find evidence that analyses weight indicators differently across time for the same location. Finally, we show that analyses do not treat closely correlated food security indicators as substitutes, suggesting inconsistency in the treatment of food security indicators across analyses. We discuss implications of these findings for policy and for the interpretation and use of IPC analyses by researchers and policymakers.
{"title":"Inside the black box: how consistent are global food security crisis analyses?","authors":"Erin Lentz , Kathy Baylis , Hope Michelson , Chungmann Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103028","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The world relies on analyses by the United Nations-facilitated Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) to identify where populations are food insecure and to quantify the severity of these crises. IPC sub-national analyses are designed to be comparable over space and time in the more than 30 countries in which the IPC operates. Humanitarian agencies appear to regard these findings as authoritative and comparable, and as of 2024, used IPC analyses to guide more than six billion dollars of annual aid allocations. We study the consistency and comparability of IPC food insecurity analyses across time and space. Drawing on 1,849 IPC subnational analyses covering 742 million people from fifteen countries between 2019 and 2023, we show that IPC analyses face significant challenges related to data availability and food security measurement, resulting from underlying food security indicators that are often discordant. We find that the vast majority of IPC subnational analyses are consistent with IPC technical guidance, but that this guidance permits a wide range of classifications for a given set of food security indicators. We also find evidence that IPC subnational analyses vary in the way they use food security data, often weighing food security indicators differently across locations. While variation in how analyses use food security indicators can plausibly reflect varying contextual factors across countries, we find evidence that analyses weight indicators differently across time for the same location. Finally, we show that analyses do not treat closely correlated food security indicators as substitutes, suggesting inconsistency in the treatment of food security indicators across analyses. We discuss implications of these findings for policy and for the interpretation and use of IPC analyses by researchers and policymakers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103028"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145786431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-18DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103031
Jingwen Li, Jie Wang
The development of specialty agriculture plays a vital role in unlocking rural potential. However, the impact of policy-driven agricultural industrial cultivation on rural innovation has not been systematically examined. Using panel data from 1,805 Chinese counties between 2014 and 2021, this study treats the designation of China’s Agricultural Product Advantage Zones as a quasi-natural experiment and employs a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) approach to empirically examine the impact of specialty agricultural industries on rural innovation. The results indicate that the development of specialty agricultural industries can significantly promote rural innovation. Further analysis confirms that specialty agricultural industries stimulate regional innovation elements by increasing government expenditure on science and education, expanding the scale of innovative entities, and improving the level of digital infrastructure—all of which contribute to enhanced rural innovation outcomes. Moreover, the development of digital inclusive finance further amplifies their innovation-enhancing effects. This study offers practical insights into how policy-driven specialty agricultural industries can stimulate innovation vitality, and provides a reference development pathway for other developing countries with agricultural-terroir advantages.
{"title":"From endowment to engine: the rural innovation effects of China’s specialty agricultural industries","authors":"Jingwen Li, Jie Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103031","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103031","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The development of specialty agriculture plays a vital role in unlocking rural potential. However, the impact of policy-driven agricultural industrial cultivation on rural innovation has not been systematically examined. Using panel data from 1,805 Chinese counties between 2014 and 2021, this study treats the designation of China’s Agricultural Product Advantage Zones as a quasi-natural experiment and employs a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) approach to empirically examine the impact of specialty agricultural industries on rural innovation. The results indicate that the development of specialty agricultural industries can significantly promote rural innovation. Further analysis confirms that specialty agricultural industries stimulate regional innovation elements by increasing government expenditure on science and education, expanding the scale of innovative entities, and improving the level of digital infrastructure—all of which contribute to enhanced rural innovation outcomes. Moreover, the development of digital inclusive finance further amplifies their innovation-enhancing effects. This study offers practical insights into how policy-driven specialty agricultural industries can stimulate innovation vitality, and provides a reference development pathway for other developing countries with agricultural-terroir advantages.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103031"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145786429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-17DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103005
Wolfgang Stojetz , Piero Ronzani , Jeanne Pinay , Marco d’Errico , Tilman Brück
Polycrises created by violent conflict and climate change are ubiquitous. Yet, the impacts of conflict and climatic shocks on human behavior and welfare have largely been studied in isolation. This paper studies the joint impact of conflict and climatic shocks on households’ social safety nets in fragile settings. Drawing on unique panel survey data from 1,293 households in North-east Nigeria, we document that experiencing a violence shock increases the strength of households’ social safety nets (SSN) when they do not experience a simultaneous drought shock. Yet, experiencing a violence shock decreases SSN strength when they experience a drought shock in addition. This perilous interaction between violence and drought shocks is concentrated in poorer local environments. When the local level of economic resources is high, in relative terms, the positive impact of a violence shock on SSN is dominant. However, when the level of economic resources is low, the influence of droughts shocks rises substantially and experiencing both a drought and a violence shock diminishes social safety drastically. The effect is driven primarily by the exhaustion of informal networks such as kinship- and neighbor-based transfers. Our findings emphasize the need for concerted social protection programs that not only account for the compounding vulnerability from poverty, conflict and climatic change but also recognize the fragility of informal support systems that form the backbone of resilience in fragile settings.
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