Nicola Hewett , Andrew Golightly , Lee Fawcett , Neil Thorpe
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Improving road safety is hugely important with the number of deaths on the world’s roads remaining unacceptably high; an estimated 1.35 million people die each year (WHO, 2020). Current practice for treating collision hotspots is almost always reactive: once a threshold level of collisions has been exceeded during some predetermined observation period, treatment is applied (e.g. road safety cameras). However, more recently, methodology has been developed to predict collision counts at potential hotspots in future time periods, with a view to a more proactive treatment of road safety hotspots. Dynamic linear models provide a flexible framework for predicting collisions and thus enabling such a proactive treatment. In this paper, we demonstrate how such models can be used to capture both seasonal variability and spatial dependence in time dependent collision rates at several locations. The model allows for within- and out-of-sample forecasting for locations which are fully observed and for locations where some data are missing. We illustrate our approach using collision rate data from 8 Traffic Administration Zones in the US, and find that the model provides a good description of the underlying process and reasonable forecast accuracy.
期刊介绍:
Computational Science is a rapidly growing multi- and interdisciplinary field that uses advanced computing and data analysis to understand and solve complex problems. It has reached a level of predictive capability that now firmly complements the traditional pillars of experimentation and theory.
The recent advances in experimental techniques such as detectors, on-line sensor networks and high-resolution imaging techniques, have opened up new windows into physical and biological processes at many levels of detail. The resulting data explosion allows for detailed data driven modeling and simulation.
This new discipline in science combines computational thinking, modern computational methods, devices and collateral technologies to address problems far beyond the scope of traditional numerical methods.
Computational science typically unifies three distinct elements:
• Modeling, Algorithms and Simulations (e.g. numerical and non-numerical, discrete and continuous);
• Software developed to solve science (e.g., biological, physical, and social), engineering, medicine, and humanities problems;
• Computer and information science that develops and optimizes the advanced system hardware, software, networking, and data management components (e.g. problem solving environments).