Methodology for the Ensemble Synthesis of Stochastic Seismic Event Sets Satisfying the Renewal Process for Local Strong Earthquakes

Abstract

Local strong seismic activity shows the potential to closely follow a renewal process, which is inconsistent with the overall seismic activity that aligns with the Poisson process. Given that existing methods for synthesizing stochastic seismic event sets cannot control local seismic activity, a method based on Monte Carlo simulations has been developed for synthesizing random seismic event sets where local strong earthquakes satisfy the renewal process. This method can synthesize seismic activities in a statistical area where the overall activity conforms to the Poisson process and the major seismic activities in local potential sources or faults follow the renewal process. This paper presents long- and short-scale approaches. The long-scale earthquake catalogs are suitable for reflecting the sequential characteristics of seismic activities. Meanwhile, the short-scale catalogs focus on the impacts of specific earthquake events within a group for a detailed understanding of hazards under certain conditions, making them suitable for studies on specific earthquake sequences and geological areas or situations requiring high temporal resolution. In the applications of short-scale sequences, we find that the equivalent occurrence rate method may overestimate the seismic hazard. This synthesis method for earthquake catalogs can simulate realistic seismic activities, thereby enhancing the accuracy of hazard analysis results and is suitable for seismic hazard analysis and earthquake insurance rate setting.