Long gun violence in California versus Texas: How legislation can reduce firearm violence

IF 1.4 Q3 SURGERY Surgery open science Pub Date : 2024-05-29 DOI:10.1016/j.sopen.2024.05.011
Jonathan Shipley BS , Areg Grigorian MD , Lourdes Swentek MD , Cristobal Barrios MD , Catherine Kuza MD , Jeffrey Santos MD , Jeffry Nahmias MD, MHPE
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Abstract

Introduction

Long guns (LGs) are uniquely implicated in firearm violence and mass shootings. On 1/1/2019 California (CA) raised the minimum age to purchase LGs from 18 to 21. This study aimed to evaluate the incidence of LG violence in CA vs. Texas (TX), a state with rising firearm usage and fewer LG regulations, hypothesizing decreased LG firearm incidents in CA vs increased rates in TX after CA LG legislation.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of the Gun Violence Archive (2015–2021) was performed. An additional analysis of all firearm incidents within TX and CA was performed. CA and TX census data were used to calculate incidents of LG violence per 10,000,000 people. The primary outcome was the number of LG-related firearm incidents. Median yearly rates of LG violence per 10,000,000 people were compared for pre (2015–2018) vs post (2019–2021) CA LG legislation (Senate Bill 1100 (SB1100).

Results

Median LG incidents decreased in CA post-SB1100 (4.21 vs 1.52, p < 0.001) by nearly 64 %, whereas any gun firearm violence was similar pre vs post-SB1100 (77.0 vs 74.5 median incidents, p = 0.89). In contrast, median LG incidents increased after SB1100 (4.34 vs 5.17 median incidents, p = 0.011) by nearly 35 % in TX, with any gun incidents increasing by nearly 53 % (83.48 vs 127.46, p < 0.001).

Conclusion

CA LG firearm incidents decreased following SB 1100 legislation whereas the incidence in TX increased during this same time. Meanwhile, the incidence of any firearm violence remained similar in CA but increased in TX. This suggests the sharp decline in CA LG incidents may be related to SB1100. Accordingly, increasing the age to purchase a LG from 18 to 21 at a federal level may help curtail LG violence nationally.

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加利福尼亚州与得克萨斯州的长期枪支暴力对比:立法如何减少枪支暴力
导语:长枪(LG)是枪支暴力和大规模枪击事件的独特牵连。2019 年 1 月 1 日,加利福尼亚州(CA)将购买长枪的最低年龄从 18 岁提高到 21 岁。本研究旨在评估加利福尼亚州与德克萨斯州(Texas)的长枪暴力事件发生率,德克萨斯州的枪支使用率不断上升,但对长枪的监管较少,本研究假设加利福尼亚州长枪立法后,加利福尼亚州的长枪枪支事件减少,而德克萨斯州的枪支事件增加。此外,还对德克萨斯州和加利福尼亚州的所有枪支事件进行了分析。加利福尼亚州和德克萨斯州的人口普查数据用于计算每 10,000,000 人中发生的 LG 暴力事件。主要结果是与 LG 相关的枪支事件数量。比较了加利福尼亚州 LG 立法(参议院法案 1100 (SB1100))之前(2015-2018 年)与之后(2019-2021 年)每 10,000,000 人 LG 暴力事件的年中位数。结果加利福尼亚州在 SB1100 之后的 LG 事件中位数减少了近 64%(4.21 vs 1.52,p < 0.001),而任何枪支暴力事件在 SB1100 之前与之后相似(77.0 vs 74.5 事件中位数,p = 0.89)。相比之下,德克萨斯州的 LG 事件中位数在 SB1100 之后增加了近 35%(4.34 vs 5.17 事件中位数,p = 0.011),任何枪支事件增加了近 53%(83.48 vs 127.46,p <0.001)。与此同时,加利福尼亚州的任何枪支暴力事件发生率保持相似,而德克萨斯州则有所上升。这表明,加利福尼亚州枪支暴力事件的急剧下降可能与 SB1100 法案有关。因此,在联邦一级将购买轻型枪支的年龄从 18 岁提高到 21 岁可能有助于在全国范围内减少轻型枪支暴力事件。
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