Surface wind speed trends for the period of 1981–2020 and their implication for a highly urbanised semi-arid Delhi–NCR and surrounding areas

IF 1.3 4区地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Journal of Earth System Science Pub Date : 2024-06-05 DOI:10.1007/s12040-024-02322-2

Lovish Raheja, Rajvidya Wadalkar, Ranjana Ray Chaudhuri, Arti Pandit

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Abstract

This study analyses surface wind speed trends over the north Indian region covering Delhi–National Capital Region (NCR) and adjoining areas (lying within latitude 25°–30°N and longitude 75°–80°E) for the recent 40-year period (1981–2020). The analysis reveals an annual stilling of 9.83 × 10⁻³ m/s/year for the study period. The seasonal analysis indicates the highest stilling in the summer by 14.57 \(\times {10}^{-3}\) m/s/year in absolute terms. The daytime and night-time wind speed variation analysis revealed a significant difference between daytime and night-time wind speeds over the region. However, declining trends for daytime and night-time wind speeds could not be differentiated statistically, i.e., daytime and night-time speeds had been declining at an almost equal rate over the study period in the study region. Further, the dust concentration analysis revealed a significant rise in dust concentration of 0.72 µg/m³/year; the highest trend has been observed for the winter season. The increase in dust concentration and the stilling together make it a significant concern from a health perspective. The stilling may have further implications on the hydrological cycle, wind energy reliance, and other concerns, which affect the climate at the micro-scale. Rapid urbanisation seems to be the most prominent factor for stilling due to an increase in surface roughness, pointing towards a need for attribute analysis in future. The study further identifies challenges in meteorological studies, which include inherent cyclicity in the meteorological variables (such as wind speed and temperature), parameterisation (choice of the independent variable), the need for sophistication in data retrieval processes, including validation (training and testing) and a lack of adequate understanding about atmospheric phenomena for the region under study. These challenges must be systematically addressed in future research to achieve better and more consistent inferences from meteorological analyses.

Research Highlights

An annual surface wind speed decline of 9.83 × 10⁻³ m/s/year has been observed over Delhi-NCR and adjoining areas since 1981.
The declining effect is most pronounced in the summer season, amounting to 14.57 ×10⁻³ m/s/year.
Dust concentration has been on continuous rise at the rate of about 0.72 µg/m³/year since 1981.
The co-occurrence of dust concentration rise and wind speed decline may be a significant cause of deterioration of air quality in the region.
The study envisages the need for systematic and holistic urban and built environment plan-ning.

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1981-2020 年期间的地表风速趋势及其对高度城市化的半干旱德里-NCR 及周边地区的影响

摘要本研究分析了印度北部地区（位于北纬 25°-30°，东经 75°-80°）最近 40 年（1981-2020 年）的地表风速趋势，范围包括德里-国家首都区（NCR）及邻近地区。分析表明，研究期间的年静流为 9.83 × 10-3 米/年。季节分析表明，夏季静风绝对值最高，为 14.57 （\times {10}^{-3}）米/秒/年。昼夜风速变化分析表明，该区域昼夜风速差异显著。不过，昼夜风速的下降趋势在统计上无法区分，即在研究期间，研究区域内昼夜风速的下降速度几乎相等。此外，粉尘浓度分析表明，粉尘浓度每年显著上升 0.72 微克/立方米；冬季的趋势最高。从健康角度来看，粉尘浓度的增加和静流共同构成了一个重大问题。沙尘暴可能会进一步影响水文循环、风能依赖以及其他在微观尺度上影响气候的问题。由于地表粗糙度增加，快速城市化似乎是造成静流的最主要因素，这表明未来需要进行属性分析。该研究进一步指出了气象研究面临的挑战，其中包括气象变量（如风速和温度）的固有周期性、参数化（自变量的选择）、数据检索过程（包括验证（培训和测试））的复杂性以及对所研究区域的大气现象缺乏足够的了解。这些挑战必须在今后的研究中系统地加以解决，以便从气象分析中获得更好、更一致的推论。研究要点自 1981 年以来，在德里-NCR 及邻近地区观测到地表风速每年下降 9.83 × 10-3 米/秒。自 1981 年以来，粉尘浓度以每年约 0.72 微克/立方米的速度持续上升，粉尘浓度上升和风速下降同时出现可能是该地区空气质量恶化的重要原因。

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来源期刊

Journal of Earth System Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

5.30%

发文量

226

期刊介绍： The Journal of Earth System Science, an International Journal, was earlier a part of the Proceedings of the Indian Academy of Sciences – Section A begun in 1934, and later split in 1978 into theme journals. This journal was published as Proceedings – Earth and Planetary Sciences since 1978, and in 2005 was renamed ‘Journal of Earth System Science’. The journal is highly inter-disciplinary and publishes scholarly research – new data, ideas, and conceptual advances – in Earth System Science. The focus is on the evolution of the Earth as a system: manuscripts describing changes of anthropogenic origin in a limited region are not considered unless they go beyond describing the changes to include an analysis of earth-system processes. The journal''s scope includes the solid earth (geosphere), the atmosphere, the hydrosphere (including cryosphere), and the biosphere; it also addresses related aspects of planetary and space sciences. Contributions pertaining to the Indian sub- continent and the surrounding Indian-Ocean region are particularly welcome. Given that a large number of manuscripts report either observations or model results for a limited domain, manuscripts intended for publication in JESS are expected to fulfill at least one of the following three criteria. The data should be of relevance and should be of statistically significant size and from a region from where such data are sparse. If the data are from a well-sampled region, the data size should be considerable and advance our knowledge of the region. A model study is carried out to explain observations reported either in the same manuscript or in the literature. The analysis, whether of data or with models, is novel and the inferences advance the current knowledge.