D. A. Demidko, A. A. Goroshko, S. M. Sultson, N. N. Kulakova, P. V. Mikhaylov
{"title":"Weather Data-Based Prediction of the Siberian Moth Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv.: A Case Study","authors":"D. A. Demidko, A. A. Goroshko, S. M. Sultson, N. N. Kulakova, P. V. Mikhaylov","doi":"10.1134/s1995425524700215","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>Outbreak prediction is a crucial component of forest pest management. Weather plays a substantial role in outbreaks of leaf-eating insects. Weather-based prediction models in this field are numerous and more or less precise. We have attempted to create such a model for the Siberian moth (SM) <i>Dendrolimus sibiricus</i> Tschetv., one of the most harmful defoliators in the southern taiga of Siberia. For the territory of interest (the southern taiga and hemiboreal forests of Tomsk oblast, Kemerovo oblast, and Krasnoyarsk krai), the gradient boosting (XBGoost) model was created with an accuracy of 0.952. Temperatures of the vegetation period in the fourth and fifth years before the onset of outbreak are better predictors.</p>","PeriodicalId":50619,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Problems of Ecology","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Contemporary Problems of Ecology","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1134/s1995425524700215","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Outbreak prediction is a crucial component of forest pest management. Weather plays a substantial role in outbreaks of leaf-eating insects. Weather-based prediction models in this field are numerous and more or less precise. We have attempted to create such a model for the Siberian moth (SM) Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv., one of the most harmful defoliators in the southern taiga of Siberia. For the territory of interest (the southern taiga and hemiboreal forests of Tomsk oblast, Kemerovo oblast, and Krasnoyarsk krai), the gradient boosting (XBGoost) model was created with an accuracy of 0.952. Temperatures of the vegetation period in the fourth and fifth years before the onset of outbreak are better predictors.
期刊介绍：
Contemporary Problems of Ecology is a multidisciplinary periodical that publishes original works on the following subjects: theoretical and methodical issues of ecology, regional aspects of ecology, regional ecological disasters, structure and functioning of ecosystems, anthropogenic transformation of ecosystems. All basic aspects of modern ecology, including the most complicated interactions between living organisms and their environment, are presented. Some of the journal issues are dedicated to global changes in biological diversity at various levels of organization (populations, species, ecosystems) principles and methods of nature conservation.
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
分享
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
扫码关注我们
