The Middle East and the Ukraine War: Between Fear and Opportunity

Abstract

While the ambivalence among Middle Eastern states about the war in Ukraine stems from multiple sources, Russian influence is a significant, if underappreciated, factor. Several of these countries see Moscow as an external balancer and hedge against the possibility of a broader US pullback from the region. At the same time, Russia maintains significant coercive capabilities thanks to its military presence in Syria and burgeoning strategic partnership with Iran. Many aspiring regional powers are also sympathetic to Moscow's calls for an international order less centered on the West. This article analyzes these concerns and perceptions, and it shows how they have shaped the way states in the region have responded to the invasion of Ukraine. Broadly speaking, these states see it as a peripheral concern—especially following the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas in October 2023—though one that could destabilize the region by stoking inflation or further emboldening Iran. While they are wary of confronting Moscow or facing regional instability, many also directly benefit from Russia's economic decoupling from the West. These countries share President Vladimir Putin's assessment that the war in Ukraine is inaugurating a new age more friendly to middle powers.