An optimized crop–livestock system can achieve a safe and just planetary boundary for phosphorus at the sub-basin level in China

Abstract

The contribution of crop and livestock production to the exceedance of the planetary boundary for phosphorus (P) in China is still unclear, despite the country’s well-known issues with P fertilizer overuse and P-related water pollution. Using coupled models at sub-basin scales we estimate that livestock production increased the consumption of P fertilizer fivefold and exacerbated P losses twofold from 1980 to 2017. At present, China’s crop–livestock system is responsible for exceeding what is considered a ‘just’ threshold for fertilizer P use by 30% (ranging from 17% to 68%) and a ‘safe’ water quality threshold by 45% (ranging from 31% to 74%) in 25 sub-basins in China. Improving the crop–livestock system will keep all sub-basins within safe water quality and just multigenerational limits for P in 2050. Sustainable phosphorus (P) management is central to food security and a healthy environment. This study quantifies the impacts of crop–livestock production on P use and losses at the sub-basin scale in China and evaluates the exceedance of a ‘safe’ and ‘just’ P planetary boundary.