Efficiency and benchmarks for photovoltaic power generation amid uncertain conditions

IF 6.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Socio-economic Planning Sciences Pub Date : 2024-06-05 DOI:10.1016/j.seps.2024.101971

Yuya Nakamoto , Shogo Eguchi , Hirotaka Takayabu

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Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation systems are highly subject to weather and site conditions, thus, the construction of PV power plant projects must consider these uncertainties. This study analyzes the monthly electricity generation of 249 utility-scale PV power plants in Japan to evaluate their electricity generation efficiency. Applying the generic data envelopment analysis, benchmark values were identified for power generation from PV power plants. Furthermore, we implemented a Monte Carlo experiment to evaluate the impact of variability in solar irradiance and temperature on power generation efficiency. For our analysis, we considered three inputs—solar irradiance, temperature, and installed capacity—and electricity generation as the output. The results showed that inter-regional gap in the efficiency score between the west and north regions is 0.03, and this can be covered by a 0.1 increase in the DC/AC ratio. Additionally, variability in weather conditions affect both the efficiency of a power plant and production possibility frontier, in turn causing the benchmark values for a generic decision-making unit to vary. Increasing the generation capacity of power plants and operating them more efficiently is essential to expanding the use of renewable energy resources.

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不确定条件下的光伏发电效率和基准

光伏发电系统受天气和场地条件的影响很大，因此光伏电站项目的建设必须考虑这些不确定因素。本研究分析了日本 249 个公用事业规模光伏电站的月发电量，以评估其发电效率。应用通用数据包络分析法，确定了光伏电站发电量的基准值。此外，我们还实施了蒙特卡洛实验，以评估太阳辐照度和温度变化对发电效率的影响。在分析中，我们考虑了三项输入--太阳辐照度、温度和装机容量，并将发电量作为输出。结果表明，西部和北部地区的效率得分差距为 0.03，而这一差距可以通过提高 0.1 的直流/交流比来弥补。此外，天气条件的变化会影响发电厂的效率和生产可能性前沿，进而导致通用决策单元的基准值发生变化。提高发电厂的发电能力和运营效率对于扩大可再生能源的使用至关重要。

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来源期刊

Socio-economic Planning Sciences OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE-

CiteScore

9.40

自引率

13.10%

发文量

294

审稿时长

58 days

期刊介绍： Studies directed toward the more effective utilization of existing resources, e.g. mathematical programming models of health care delivery systems with relevance to more effective program design; systems analysis of fire outbreaks and its relevance to the location of fire stations; statistical analysis of the efficiency of a developing country economy or industry. Studies relating to the interaction of various segments of society and technology, e.g. the effects of government health policies on the utilization and design of hospital facilities; the relationship between housing density and the demands on public transportation or other service facilities: patterns and implications of urban development and air or water pollution. Studies devoted to the anticipations of and response to future needs for social, health and other human services, e.g. the relationship between industrial growth and the development of educational resources in affected areas; investigation of future demands for material and child health resources in a developing country; design of effective recycling in an urban setting.