Minor loss or huge threat? Assessment of potential infrastructure projects reveals drastic landscape degradation in the Atlantic forest

Abstract

Projects demanding deforestation to expand urban infrastructure and road networks put pressure on the Atlantic Forest − a hyper-fragmented global conservation hotspot known for its high biodiversity and endemism. To support decision-making, we applied a scientific approach to analyse the immediate and long-term impacts of two major planned projects in the most threatened Atlantic Forest region – the Pernambuco Endemism Center, a crucial area for the survival of many endemic species. A Metropolitan Road Arch and a Training School for Career Sergeants are expected in the Environmental Protection Area Aldeia-Beberibe (31,634 ha) in the next few years. The area has 198 protected forest remnants, including one larger than 10,000 ha. Our analysis shows that the projects’ implementation may deforest 189 ha, increase fragment number by 3.5 % and decrease the average patch area by 4 %. The largest fragment will be divided into two. We may lose 335,307 trees and 44,655.59 Mg of carbon. Approximately 112.67 ha of watershed protection will be damaged. Thus, in the medium to long term, habitat quality will worsen, and the probability of connectivity will decrease, restricting forest-dependent species’ mobility considerably. To date, alternative areas have been proposed in meetings, working groups, and environmental advisory bodies for the analysed projects. We strongly oppose further deforestation and suggest that science-based approaches must be immediately considered for any project that requires forest suppression in highly fragmented landscapes. This is crucial to mitigate the alarming scenarios of extreme climate and biodiversity loss that we are currently witnessing in Brazil and worldwide.