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Evaluating line transect efficiency for estimating vicuña (Vicugna vicugna) population density and habitat use in the Apolobamba National Natural Integrated Management Area, Bolivia 玻利维亚Apolobamba国家自然综合管理区估算vicuña (Vicugna Vicugna)种群密度和生境利用的样线效率评价
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2026.127235
Robert B. Wallace , Sandra Rivera , Jesus Martinez , Guido Ayala , Ariel Reinaga , Robert Marquez , Samantha Strindberg
Vicuñas (Vicugna vicugna) are sustainably managed in Bolivia as a wild species with highly valuable wool. As part of a community management model, over the last two decades indigenous communities have organized censuses of wild vicuña. In order to validate these community censuses, we estimated vicuña population density and abundance in the Apolobamba National Natural Integrated Management Area in the northwestern Bolivian Andes using a line transect distance sampling approach. We placed 54 transects across 690 km2 covering most of the vicuña distribution within Apolobamba, with transects conducted on motorcycles on the flatter Andean plain and on foot in the adjacent hills. Using a Multiple Covariate Distance Sampling (MCDS) approach and based on 252 transect encounters the vicuña population density was estimated at 12.53 individuals/km2 (95% CI 9.51 – 15.07) overall with a half-normal model. A complementary occupancy sampling analysis of the survey data indicated that vicuña occupancy was higher as distance to peat bog increased and vicuña detectability was greater when line transects were conducted on foot. Our population estimate for the area where local communities and park guards traditionally count vicuña was 12,527 animals (95% CI 10,614–––13,815). The community census conducted immediately before our survey counted 11,978 animals. This parity in results for the two methodologies is important as the community census methodology is widely applied across Bolivia to evaluate wild vicuna populations under community management. Our results validate the community census methodology as an accurate and participative methodology for monitoring wild vicuña populations into the future.
Vicuñas (Vicugna Vicugna)是玻利维亚可持续管理的野生物种,具有高价值的羊毛。作为社区管理模式的一部分,在过去二十年中,土著社区组织了野生vicuña人口普查。为了验证这些社区普查,我们使用样线距离抽样方法估计了玻利维亚安第斯山脉西北部Apolobamba国家自然综合管理区vicuña的人口密度和丰度。我们在690平方公里的范围内放置了54个横断面,覆盖了Apolobamba内的大部分vicuña分布,在较平坦的安第斯平原上骑摩托车进行横断面,在邻近的山丘上步行进行横断面。采用半正态模型,利用多重协变量距离抽样(MCDS)方法,基于252个样带遭遇,估计vicuña总体种群密度为12.53个体/km2 (95% CI 9.51 ~ 15.07)。对调查数据的补充占用抽样分析表明,vicuña占用率随距离泥炭沼泽的增加而增加,vicuña可探测性随步行线样条的增加而增加。我们对当地社区和公园警卫传统计数vicuña的地区的人口估计为12,527只动物(95% CI 10,614—13,815)。在我们调查之前进行的社区普查统计了11978只动物。这两种方法的结果相当重要,因为社区普查方法在玻利维亚广泛应用于评估社区管理下的野生骆马种群。我们的结果验证了社区普查方法是一种准确和参与性的方法,用于监测野生vicuña种群到未来。
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引用次数: 0
Avian diversity and responses to altitude and human disturbance in Askot Wildlife Sanctuary, Western Himalaya 西喜马拉雅阿斯科特野生动物保护区鸟类多样性及其对海拔和人为干扰的响应
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2026-01-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2026.127234
Soni Bisht , Gopal Singh Rawat
The Himalaya represents one of the world’s most significant biodiversity hotspots, yet many of its protected areas remain poorly documented. Askot Wildlife Sanctuary, located in the Western Himalaya (630–4,230 m), was surveyed from 2016 to 2019 to establish a baseline avifaunal inventory and assess species–environment relationships across habitats and elevation zones. Standardized point count surveys recorded 239 bird species from 53 families. Among these, five species are globally Threatened and six are Near Threatened according to the IUCN Red List. Additionally, 156 species are listed under the Indian Wildlife (Protection) Act of 1972, emphasizing the site’s conservation significance. The assemblage comprised 57 migratory species, including both altitudinal and long-distance migrants, and 74 Himalayan endemics, highlighting the sanctuary as a critical ecological refuge. Species richness followed a unimodal elevational pattern, with mid-elevations supporting the highest diversity due to the overlap of lowland and high-altitude taxa. Habitat-specific analysis revealed maximum Shannon diversity in agricultural land (0.34±0.01 SE), while conifer forests sustained the lowest (0.15 ± 0.01 SE). Avian diversity showed a significant negative correlation with altitude (r =  − 0.48, p <0.001) and a positive correlation with tree richness (r = 0.31, p <0.05). The occurrence of conservation-priority species such as Cheer Pheasant, Critically Endangered White-rumped and Red-headed Vultures, and Endangered raptors including Egyptian Vulture and Steppe Eagle further underscores the sanctuary’s global importance. These findings demonstrate the ecological sensitivity of Himalayan avifauna to elevational dynamics, habitat heterogeneity, and anthropogenic pressures, and highlight the urgent need for habitat-specific conservation and management interventions.
喜马拉雅是世界上最重要的生物多样性热点地区之一,但它的许多保护区仍然缺乏记录。2016年至2019年,研究人员对位于喜马拉雅西部(630 - 4230米)的阿斯科特野生动物保护区进行了调查,以建立基线鸟类物种清查,并评估栖息地和海拔区域的物种-环境关系。标准化点数调查记录了53科239种鸟类。根据世界自然保护联盟红色名录,其中5个物种是全球濒危物种,6个物种是近危物种。此外,根据1972年的《印度野生动物(保护)法案》,有156种物种被列入名单,强调了该遗址的保护意义。其中包括57种迁徙物种,包括纵向和长距离迁徙物种,以及74种喜马拉雅特有物种,突出了该保护区作为重要生态避难所的地位。物种丰富度呈现单峰分布格局,由于低地和高海拔类群的重叠,中海拔地区的物种多样性最高。农用地Shannon多样性最高(0.34±0.01 SE),针叶林最低(0.15±0.01 SE)。鸟类多样性与海拔高度呈显著负相关(r = - 0.48, p <0.001),与树木丰富度呈正相关(r = 0.31, p <0.05)。保护重点物种的出现,如野鸡、极度濒危的白背和红头秃鹫,以及包括埃及秃鹫和草原鹰在内的濒危猛禽,进一步凸显了该保护区在全球的重要性。这些发现表明喜马拉雅地区鸟类对海拔动态、栖息地异质性和人为压力的生态敏感性,并强调了生境保护和管理干预措施的迫切需要。
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引用次数: 0
High endemism, higher risk: Why Colombia’s liverwort diversity demands urgent conservation action 高地方性,高风险:为什么哥伦比亚的苔类多样性需要紧急保护行动
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2026.127233
Yeison Jaroc Lombo-Sanchez , Karen Yuliana Suarez-Contento , Mércia Patrícia Pereira Silva , Kátia Cavalcanti Pôrto
The biodiversity crisis demands urgent assessments for neglected taxa to inform effective conservation. Liverworts, a key hyperdiverse yet critically understudied plant group, epitomize this challenge in megadiverse countries. We present the first comprehensive, national threat assessment for Colombian liverworts, analyzing 8,297 records of 708 taxa using IUCN criteria. Our results reveal a severe conservation crisis: over 56% of assessed species are threatened (CR: 2.3%; EN: 38.6%; VU: 15.8%) or Data Deficient (26.7%). Threat is highly concentrated spatially, with the Andean and Pacific regions—identified as centres of endemism—showing the highest concentrations of threatened species and the most severe threat levels. Alarmingly, these critical zones exhibit poor representation within the Protected Area network. We identify Lejeuneaceae and Lepidoziaceae as the most threatened families. Lejeunea, Plagiochila, and Cololejeunea contain the highest proportion of threatened and data-deficient taxa. Our findings provide a critical baseline and a clear mandate: conserving Colombia’s bryophyte diversity requires immediate expansion of protected areas in endemic hotspots and targeted research to address knowledge gaps for data-deficient taxa.
生物多样性危机要求对被忽视的分类群进行紧急评估,以便为有效的保护提供信息。Liverworts是一种重要的高度多样化但研究不足的植物群,在超级多样化的国家体现了这一挑战。我们提出了第一个全面的,国家对哥伦比亚地菌的威胁评估,使用IUCN标准分析了708个分类群的8297条记录。结果表明,中国的物种保护危机严重:超过56%的被评估物种受到威胁(CR: 2.3%; EN: 38.6%; VU: 15.8%)或数据不足(26.7%)。威胁在空间上高度集中,被确定为特有种中心的安第斯和太平洋地区显示出受威胁物种的最高集中度和最严重的威胁水平。令人担忧的是,这些关键区域在保护区网络中表现得很差。我们确定Lejeuneaceae和Lepidoziaceae是最受威胁的科。Lejeunea、Plagiochila和Cololejeunea包含的受威胁和缺乏数据的分类群比例最高。我们的研究结果提供了一个关键的基线和明确的任务:保护哥伦比亚的苔藓植物多样性需要立即在地方性热点地区扩大保护区,并有针对性地开展研究,以解决数据不足的分类群的知识空白。
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引用次数: 0
Vegetation mediates the effect of management and habitat on Auchenorrhyncha species richness, but not community quality, in restored grasslands 在恢复草原中,植被调节管理和生境对柽桐物种丰富度的影响,但不调节群落质量
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2026.127231
Valeria Trivellone , Christopher H. Dietrich , Bernd Panassiti , Abigail Pagels , Eric Janssen , Paul B. Marcum , Sara Johnson , Susan D. McIntyre , Mary Ann Feist , David N. Zaya , Thomas J. Benson , Brenda Molano-Flores
Insects represent the largest component of global biodiversity, and widespread declines in their richness and abundance have raised concerns about ecosystem functioning. Yet insect communities in natural and semi-natural grasslands, and the drivers of their recent changes, remain poorly studied at broad spatial scales. In Illinois (USA), efforts to preserve and restore native tallgrass prairies have been ongoing for decades, but their impact on native insect communities remain poorly understood. We conducted a statewide assessment of Auchenorrhyncha communities (Hemiptera, hereafter ‘hoppers’) along a gradient of anthropogenic disturbance. By sampling both plants and hoppers across prairie habitats, we evaluated how management practices and habitat history influence hopper communities through direct and indirect (trophic) pathways. Using community-level analyses and structural equation modeling, we tested hypotheses regarding direct and indirect effects of management intensity, habitat type, and environmental factors on plant and hopper communities. Responses were assessed for prairie-dependent species (e.g., Flexamia grammica and Calamovilfa longifolia), overall species richness (plants and hoppers), and habitat quality indices (Floristic Quality Index, Auchenorrhyncha Quality Index [AQI]). Higher management intensity indirectly promotes hopper species richness through enhanced plant species richness. However, this pattern did not extend to the AQI, which declined significantly under high-intensity management in hill prairies, which currently serve as refuges for the remaining prairie specialist hoppers. These findings suggest that while prairie management benefits plant diversity, its effects on prairie-dependent insect communities are more complex and mediated by ecological and historical factors. Effective conservation of hopper communities may therefore require targeted, habitat-specific management strategies.
昆虫是全球生物多样性的最大组成部分,其丰富度和丰度的普遍下降引起了人们对生态系统功能的担忧。然而,在广泛的空间尺度上,对自然和半自然草地上的昆虫群落及其近期变化的驱动因素的研究仍然很少。在美国伊利诺斯州,保护和恢复本土高草草原的努力已经进行了几十年,但它们对本土昆虫群落的影响仍然知之甚少。我们沿着人为干扰的梯度对全州范围内的Auchenorrhyncha群落(半翅目,以下简称“跳虫”)进行了评估。通过对草原生境的植物和跳虫进行采样,我们评估了管理实践和生境历史如何通过直接和间接(营养)途径影响跳虫群落。利用群落水平分析和结构方程模型,验证了管理强度、生境类型和环境因子对植物和飞蛾群落的直接和间接影响。评估了草原依赖物种(如Flexamia grammica和Calamovilfa longifolia)、总体物种丰富度(植物和跳蝇)和生境质量指数(Floristic quality Index, Auchenorrhyncha quality Index [AQI])的响应。较高的管理强度通过提高植物物种丰富度间接促进了飞蛾物种丰富度。然而,这种模式并没有延伸到AQI,在高强度管理下,AQI显著下降,目前这些草原是剩余草原专科跳鸟的避难所。这些发现表明,虽然草原管理有利于植物多样性,但其对草原依赖昆虫群落的影响更为复杂,并受到生态和历史因素的调节。因此,有效保护跳虫群落可能需要有针对性的、针对栖息地的管理策略。
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引用次数: 0
Synergies between potential key geoheritage areas (KGAs) and key biodiversity areas (KBAs) in Spain and Scotland: Toward a holistic nature conservation framework 西班牙和苏格兰潜在的关键地质遗产区(KGAs)和关键生物多样性区(KBAs)之间的协同作用:迈向整体自然保护框架
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2026.127232
M.R. Monge-Ganuzas , J.E. Gordon , R. Crofts , D. Juffe Bignoli , J.B. Brilha
Geodiversity provides the abiotic foundation that shapes ecosystems and supports biodiversity. However, its role in conservation planning remains underrepresented. This study investigates spatial overlaps and functional linkages between potential Key Geoheritage Areas (KGAs) and Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) in Spain and Scotland, aiming to promote a more integrated conservation framework. Using national geosite inventories and the World Database of KBAs, we conducted spatial analyses and inferred ecological dependencies based on geological features and habitat data.
In Spain, 78% of the surface area of potential KGAs lies entirely within KBAs, despite KGAs covering only 1.7% of the total KBA area. These KGAs include volcanic, karstic, coastal, and tectonic systems that underpin habitats for protected species. In Scotland, all 40 globally important KBAs show inferred functional links to geoheritage, particularly through coastal geomorphology, soils, and hydrological systems supporting seabird and wetland species.
The results demonstrate that co-located KGAs and KBAs offer opportunities for integrated management, enhancing conservation effectiveness by recognizing the interdependence of abiotic and biotic systems. This innovative framework supports holistic conservation strategies, especially under climate change and land-use pressures. The study highlights the need for interdisciplinary approaches and skilled practitioners capable of managing both biodiversity and geoheritage within protected areas.
地质多样性为形成生态系统和支持生物多样性提供了非生物基础。然而,它在保护规划中的作用仍然没有得到充分的体现。本研究探讨了西班牙和苏格兰潜在的关键地质遗产区(KGAs)和关键生物多样性区(KBAs)之间的空间重叠和功能联系,旨在促进更综合的保护框架。利用国家地质遗址清查和世界地质bas数据库,我们进行了空间分析,并根据地质特征和栖息地数据推断出生态依赖关系。在西班牙,尽管KGAs仅占KBA总面积的1.7%,但潜在KGAs表面积的78%完全位于KBA内。这些KGAs包括支撑受保护物种栖息地的火山、岩溶、海岸和构造系统。在苏格兰,所有40个全球重要的kba都显示出与地质遗产的推断功能联系,特别是通过支持海鸟和湿地物种的沿海地貌、土壤和水文系统。结果表明,通过认识到非生物系统和生物系统的相互依存关系,共同定位的KGAs和KBAs为综合管理提供了机会,提高了保护效果。这一创新框架支持整体保护战略,特别是在气候变化和土地利用压力下。这项研究强调需要跨学科的方法和熟练的实践者来管理保护区内的生物多样性和地质遗产。
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引用次数: 0
Threats to the conservation of protected natural areas in Mexico 对墨西哥自然保护区保护的威胁
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2026.127226
Dulce Guadalupe García-Flores , Martha Mariela Zarco-González , Ángel Balbuena-Serrano , Zuleyma Zarco-González , Octavio Monroy-Vilchis
Protected Natural Areas (PNA) are a primary tool for conserving biodiversity and are used internationally. However, there is currently no decree ensuring their proper functioning, especially considering the rapid expansion of human activities. In Mexico, 182 PNA have been decreed, of which 125 terrestrial areas were analyzed to assess fragmentation and connectivity using land cover data from the MAD-Mex system (Monitoring Activity Data for the Mexican REDD + program) and a least-cost path modeling approach. A cluster analysis based on fragmentation metrics resulted in the formation of three groups of PNA, which were classified through discriminant analysis into low, medium, and high vulnerability levels. Subsequently, the extreme groups (low and high vulnerability) were characterized using nine socioeconomic variables, through a generalized linear model. The most vulnerable PNA are concentrated in the central region of the country, where population density, mining activity, and proximity to metropolitan areas increase fragmentation and reduce connectivity. A generalized linear model showed that the vulnerability of PNA increases with human population density and the presence of mines, while it decreases with distance to metropolitan areas and the presence of tourist areas. This analysis provides important insights into the local threats faced by each of Mexico’s terrestrial PNA. Such information is crucial for improving management plans and conservation strategies tailored to the specific threats confronting these areas.
自然保护区(PNA)是保护生物多样性的主要工具,在国际上得到广泛使用。但是,目前没有法令确保其适当运作,特别是考虑到人类活动的迅速扩大。在墨西哥,已经颁布了182个PNA,使用MAD-Mex系统(墨西哥REDD +计划的监测活动数据)的土地覆盖数据和最低成本路径建模方法,分析了其中125个陆地区域,以评估碎片化和连通性。基于碎片化指标的聚类分析将PNA划分为三组,并通过判别分析将其分为低、中、高脆弱性。随后,通过广义线性模型,利用9个社会经济变量对极端群体(低脆弱性和高脆弱性)进行了表征。最脆弱的PNA集中在该国的中部地区,那里的人口密度、采矿活动和靠近大都市地区加剧了碎片化,减少了连通性。广义线性模型表明,PNA的脆弱性随着人口密度和地雷的存在而增加,而随着距大都市的距离和旅游区的存在而降低。这一分析为了解墨西哥每一种陆地PNA面临的当地威胁提供了重要的见解。这些信息对于改进针对这些地区面临的具体威胁的管理计划和保护战略至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Development of biodiversity prediction model for inland wetlands in Korea through Machine learning 利用机器学习开发韩国内陆湿地生物多样性预测模型
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2026.127227
Myeong Heon Lee , Jae Geun Kim
Wetlands support exceptional biodiversity and vital ecosystem services but face accelerating loss and fragmentation worldwide. Predicting how biodiversity varies among wetlands and identifying its key environmental drivers are crucial for conservation, yet traditional approaches often struggle with spatial heterogeneity, data limitations, and the challenge of distinguishing among wetland types. Here, we combined high-resolution, field-delineated wetland boundaries with interpretable machine learning to model species richness and phylogenetic diversity across vascular plants, birds, and fish in all major inland wetland types in Korea. Our models, rigorously validated using spatial block cross-validation, identified the main environmental determinants of biodiversity at the scale of true wetland units. We then used model interpretation techniques to uncover nonlinearities and ecological thresholds in biodiversity–environment relationships. Our results reveal that vegetated area is a universal, dominant predictor across taxa and wetland types, but its effects are nonlinear, with clear saturation or optimum thresholds. Other drivers, such as hydrological stability and landscape composition, were context-dependent. These findings challenge the assumption that “more is always better,” instead highlighting system- and taxon-specific thresholds as effective targets for wetland conservation and restoration. By integrating interpretable machine learning with field-true spatial data, this study offers actionable benchmarks for monitoring, management, and policy, and offers a modeling framework applicable to wetland conservation efforts worldwide.
湿地支持着特殊的生物多样性和重要的生态系统服务,但在世界范围内面临着加速丧失和破碎化。预测湿地生物多样性如何变化并确定其关键环境驱动因素对于湿地保护至关重要,然而传统的方法经常受到空间异质性、数据局限性和区分湿地类型的挑战的困扰。在这里,我们将高分辨率、实地划定的湿地边界与可解释的机器学习相结合,模拟了韩国所有主要内陆湿地类型中维管植物、鸟类和鱼类的物种丰富度和系统发育多样性。我们的模型经过空间块交叉验证的严格验证,确定了真正湿地单元尺度上生物多样性的主要环境决定因素。然后,我们使用模型解释技术来揭示生物多样性-环境关系的非线性和生态阈值。研究结果表明,植被面积是一个普遍的、主导的预测因子,但其影响是非线性的,存在明显的饱和或最佳阈值。其他驱动因素,如水文稳定性和景观组成,则依赖于环境。这些发现挑战了“越多越好”的假设,而不是强调系统和分类群特定的阈值是湿地保护和恢复的有效目标。通过将可解释的机器学习与现场真实空间数据相结合,本研究为监测、管理和政策提供了可操作的基准,并提供了一个适用于全球湿地保护工作的建模框架。
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引用次数: 0
Promote or inhibit? The impact of national park establishment on regional economic development: Evidence from Wuyishan National Park, China 促进还是抑制?国家公园建设对区域经济发展的影响——以武夷山国家公园为例
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2026-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2026.127230
Suwan Li , Honghong Yu , Mengyuan Qiu , Jiameng Yang
Clarifying the effects of national park establishment on regional economic development is essential for ensuring policy sustainability. This study treats Wuyishan National Park Establishment (WNPE) as a quasi-natural experiment and constructs a panel dataset for 138 counties in Fujian, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang provinces over the period 2011–2023. Total factor productivity (TFP) is adopted as a proxy for regional economic development and is measured using the Super-SBM Global Malmquist Index Model. The difference-in-differences (DID) model, mediation effect model, and spatial econometric models are then employed to systematically assess the impact of WNPE on economic development, underlying transmission mechanisms, and spatial spillover effects. The results show that: (1) WNPE significantly suppresses regional economic development, and this finding remains robust to multiple robustness checks. (2) WNPE leads to sluggish growth in the tertiary sector while inducing only a limited withdrawal of the secondary sector, thereby hindering the process of industrial structure adjustment and ultimately exerting a negative impact on regional economic development. (3) Compared to counties with underdeveloped infrastructure, those with well-developed infrastructure can effectively alleviate the negative economic effects of WNPE. (4) At present, the impact of WNPE on the economies of adjacent regions is relatively limited, and no significant spatial spillover effects are observed. Overall, these findings reveal the relationship and mechanism between WNPE and regional economic development. These, in turn, provide the decision-making references for policymakers to develop scientific, targeted, and differentiated national park policies and adjust regional economic development strategies.
明确国家公园建设对区域经济发展的影响是确保政策可持续性的必要条件。本文以武夷山国家公园建设为准自然实验,构建了2011-2023年福建、江西、浙江三省138个县的面板数据集。采用Super-SBM全球Malmquist指数模型对全要素生产率(TFP)作为区域经济发展的指标进行测度。运用差别化差分(DID)模型、中介效应模型和空间计量经济学模型,系统评估了西部农村资本流动对经济发展的影响、潜在传导机制和空间溢出效应。研究结果表明:(1)WNPE显著抑制区域经济发展,且经多次稳健性检验,这一发现具有稳健性。(2) WNPE导致第三产业增长缓慢,第二产业退出有限,从而阻碍了产业结构调整进程,最终对区域经济发展产生负面影响。(3)与基础设施欠发达的县相比,基础设施发达的县可以有效缓解WNPE的负面经济效应。(4)目前,WNPE对相邻区域经济的影响相对有限,没有明显的空间溢出效应。总体而言,这些发现揭示了WNPE与区域经济发展的关系和机制。为决策者制定科学的、针对性的、差别化的国家公园政策和调整区域经济发展战略提供决策参考。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the current and future habitat suitability of the endangered Syrian brown bear in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region under climate change scenarios 在气候变化情景下评估伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区濒危叙利亚棕熊当前和未来的栖息地适宜性
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2026.127229
Korsh Ararat , Nabaz R. Khwarahm , Soran H. Ahmed , Omar F. Al-Sheikhly
Large carnivores worldwide face significant conservation challenges due to habitat loss, fragmentation, and climate change, which alter resource availability and increase human-wildlife conflicts, while habitat suitability modelling plays a crucial role in predicting these impacts and informing conservation strategies across species and regions. The Syrian brown bear, an endangered subspecies, faces escalating threats in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) due to habitat degradation, climate change impacts, and rising human-wildlife conflicts, and this study employs MaxEnt habitat suitability modelling to assess the bear’s current habitat suitability and predict future changes under two contrasting climate scenarios, SSP 126 (low-emission) and SSP 585 (high-emission), projected for the year 2070. The analysis utilizes occurrence data collected between 2009 and 2025, combined with key environmental variables such as slope, elevation, precipitation seasonality, temperature seasonality, and land cover, to map the bear’s ecological preferences and vulnerabilities, with currently suitable habitat spanning 23.68% of the KRI, totaling 12,067.71 km2, and slope (42.40% contribution), elevation (19.70%), and precipitation seasonality (14.60%) identified as the dominant factors shaping habitat suitability. Under the SSP 126 scenario, highly suitable areas are projected to expand significantly to 5.58% (2,844.41 km2) by 2070, particularly in northeastern high-altitude zones, potentially providing refugia for the species, whereas conversely, the SSP 585 scenario predicts a drastic reduction in highly suitable habitat to just 1.56% (795.10 km2), driven by intensifying heat and aridity, which could severely limit the bear’s range. These results highlight the species’ reliance on steep, high-altitude terrains and its susceptibility to rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, and habitat fragmentation, and to ensure the long-term survival of the Syrian brown bear in the KRI, this study underscores the urgent need for targeted conservation strategies, including the creation of habitat corridors to improve connectivity between fragmented populations, community engagement initiatives to mitigate human-bear conflicts, and the implementation of land-use policies to safeguard critical habitats from further degradation.
由于栖息地的丧失、破碎化和气候变化,世界范围内的大型食肉动物面临着巨大的保护挑战,这些挑战改变了资源的可用性,增加了人类与野生动物的冲突,而栖息地适宜性建模在预测这些影响和为跨物种和区域的保护策略提供信息方面发挥着至关重要的作用。叙利亚棕熊是一种濒危亚种,在伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区(KRI)由于栖息地退化、气候变化影响和人类与野生动物冲突加剧而面临日益严重的威胁。本研究利用MaxEnt生境适宜性模型评估了叙利亚棕熊目前的栖息地适宜性,并预测了两种不同气候情景(SSP 126(低排放)和SSP 585(高排放))在2070年的未来变化。利用2009 - 2025年的发生数据,结合坡度、高程、降水季节性、温度季节性和土地覆盖等关键环境变量,分析了熊的生态偏好和脆弱性,目前适宜栖息地面积占KRI的23.68%,总面积为12,067.71 km2,坡度(42.40%),高程(19.70%),降水季节性(14.60%)是影响生境适宜性的主要因素。在SSP 126情景下,预计到2070年,高度适宜的区域将显著扩大到5.58% (2,844.41 km2),特别是在东北部高海拔地区,可能为该物种提供避难所,而相反,SSP 585情景预测,由于高温和干旱加剧,高度适宜的栖息地将急剧减少到1.56% (795.10 km2),这可能严重限制熊的范围。这些结果强调了该物种对陡峭、高海拔地形的依赖,以及对气温上升、长期干旱和栖息地破碎化的敏感性。为了确保叙利亚棕熊在KRI的长期生存,本研究强调了迫切需要有针对性的保护策略,包括创建栖息地走廊以改善碎片化种群之间的连通性,社区参与倡议以减轻人熊冲突。实施土地使用政策,保护重要栖息地免遭进一步退化。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling tiger dispersal in the central Indian landscape using a prey-predator game theory approach coupled with network analysis and remote sensing-GIS 利用猎物-捕食者博弈论方法结合网络分析和遥感-地理信息系统模拟印度中部地区老虎的扩散
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2026.127224
Anam Ahsan , Saurabh Shanu , Arijit Roy
Bengal tigers (Panthera tigris tigris) primarily inhabit fragmented and isolated landscapes, threatening their long-term survival. Habitat fragmentation disrupts movement, reduces genetic diversity, limits prey availability, and increases human-wildlife conflict. Maintaining ecological connectivity is essential for tiger dispersal and population stability. This study employs Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques to analyze habitat connectivity across six tiger reserves. Habitat suitability models, incorporating vegetation indices, prey density, and anthropogenic factors, were developed using GIS-based spatial analysis. Using a 200 km threshold, binary and probabilistic indices were applied to identify critical habitat patches for tiger dispersal. The Kanha-Achanakmar landscape emerged as a crucial corridor, exhibiting the highest Betweenness Centrality (BC) and Integral Index of Connectivity (IIC) values, highlighting its role in sustaining tiger populations and facilitating ecological linkages.
Additionally, the study integrates graph-theoretic and game-theoretic models to assess tiger dispersal dynamics. The game-theoretic approach evaluates behavioral strategies and the impact of landscape modifications on population viability. The findings emphasize the Pench-Kanha-Achanakmar corridor as a key dispersal route, supporting prey interactions and ecological stability. This research provides a computational framework for conservation planning, leveraging Remote Sensing, GIS, and mathematical modeling to inform strategies for maintaining long-term habitat connectivity and the persistence of wild tiger populations.
孟加拉虎(Panthera tigris tigris)主要生活在破碎和孤立的景观中,威胁着它们的长期生存。栖息地的破碎破坏了迁徙,减少了遗传多样性,限制了猎物的可得性,并增加了人类与野生动物的冲突。维持生态连通性对老虎的扩散和种群稳定至关重要。本研究采用遥感和地理信息系统(GIS)技术分析了六个老虎保护区的栖息地连通性。基于gis的空间分析方法,建立了包括植被指数、猎物密度和人为因素在内的生境适宜性模型。以200 km为阈值,采用二元指数和概率指数确定老虎扩散的关键生境斑块。坎哈-阿恰纳克马尔景观是一个重要的走廊,表现出最高的中间性中心性(BC)和整体连通性指数(IIC)值,突出了其在维持老虎种群和促进生态联系方面的作用。此外,该研究结合了图论和博弈论模型来评估老虎的扩散动力学。博弈论方法评估了行为策略和景观改变对种群生存能力的影响。研究结果强调,Pench-Kanha-Achanakmar走廊是一个关键的扩散路径,支持猎物相互作用和生态稳定。本研究为保护规划提供了一个计算框架,利用遥感、地理信息系统和数学模型,为维持野生老虎种群的长期栖息地连通性和持久性提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal for Nature Conservation
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