Green Road is open: Economic Pathway with a carbon price escalator

IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Journal of Environmental Economics and Management Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI:10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103033
Lucas Bretschger
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Abstract

The paper develops the concept of “Economic Pathways” (EPs), which characterizes theory-based scenarios for an economy that strives for decarbonization by the middle of the century. The theoretical framework derives closed-form analytical solutions for consumption, innovation, emissions, and population. The EPs differ in the stringency of assumed policies and associated income and emission development. Unlike the well-known “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways”, they allow the inclusion of important causalities between the economy and the environment and thereby considerably narrow down the scope of likely future developments. The quantitative part serves to illustrate the long-term consequences of climate policy. I show that deep decarbonization only moderately delays economic development, but requires increasing escalation of the carbon price. The paper argues that the adoption of more stringent climate policies becomes more likely as the phase-out of fossil fuels increases. The “Green Road” is not only feasible but also attractive and realistic.

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绿色之路已开启:碳价格上涨的经济路径
本文提出了 "经济路径"(Economic Pathways,EPs)的概念,以理论为基础,描述了力争在本世纪中叶实现去碳化的经济情景。该理论框架得出了消费、创新、排放和人口的闭式分析解决方案。EPs 的不同之处在于假定政策的严格程度以及相关的收入和排放发展。与众所周知的 "共享社会经济路径 "不同,它们允许纳入经济与环境之间的重要因果关系,从而大大缩小了未来可能发展的范围。定量部分用于说明气候政策的长期后果。我的研究表明,深度去碳化只会适度延迟经济发展,但要求碳价格不断攀升。本文认为,随着化石燃料淘汰量的增加,更有可能采取更严格的气候政策。绿色之路 "不仅可行,而且具有吸引力和现实性。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.00
自引率
4.30%
发文量
91
期刊介绍: The Journal of Environmental Economics and Management publishes theoretical and empirical papers devoted to specific natural resources and environmental issues. For consideration, papers should (1) contain a substantial element embodying the linkage between economic systems and environmental and natural resources systems or (2) be of substantial importance in understanding the management and/or social control of the economy in its relations with the natural environment. Although the general orientation of the journal is toward economics, interdisciplinary papers by researchers in other fields of interest to resource and environmental economists will be welcomed.
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