Modeling of agricultural water policies to guarantee water supply under climate change

Abstract

The efficient and sustainable use of water has become a necessity in regions prone to drought and water scarcity. One such region is the Fars province of Iran, where farmers often face uncertainties in irrigation water supply due to frequent droughts and declining groundwater levels. This study employed a quantitative research methodology, utilizing surveys and questionnaires to collect data. Specifically, the study used the choice experiment (CE) methodology to evaluate policy attributes aimed at guaranteeing agricultural water supply. The research was conducted in Marvdasht County within the Fars province, with a sample size of 170 farmers and 4080 observations collected in 2015. The collected data were analyzed using the conditional logit (CL) model. The sample size was determined using the stratified random sampling method. The results of the study indicate that age has a negative effect on farmers' willingness to pay (WTP) for guaranteed water supply, while education has a positive effect. Additionally, the study found that farmers' WTP for different policies varied, with the highest WTP observed for the use of water-saving technologies (estimated at 254.89 IRR per m3) across all areas. Consequently, the study recommends that policies promoting the adoption of water-saving technologies should be prioritized globally. It is worth noting that water policies can significantly differ between countries and regions due to various factors, including local water challenges, legal frameworks, cultural norms, and socio-economic conditions. Therefore, when formulating water policies, it is crucial to consider the specific context and tailor them to the unique circumstances of each region or country.