Hydroclimatic scenario generation using two-stage stochastic simulation framework

IF 4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES Advances in Water Resources Pub Date : 2024-05-31 DOI:10.1016/j.advwatres.2024.104739
Chandramauli Awasthi , Dol Raj Chalise , Hui Wang , Solomon Tassew Erkyihun , Tirusew Asefa , A. Sankarasubramanian
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Abstract

Climate change poses significant challenges for decision-making processes across a range of sectors. From the water resources planning and management perspective, the interest is often in evaluating the performance of a water supply system in a future state considering the potential changes in rainfall and streamflow characteristics. With observed climate change signals, scenario-based projections of rainfall and streamflow simulations are crucial for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on water resource systems. Given the complexity of the existing approaches, their applications for generating scenario-based projections of streamflow and rainfall are limited. We developed a non-parametric bootstrapping approach, NPScnGen, for future scenario generation of any hydroclimatic variable. The developed approach is flexible and can be used with any physical hydrological or data-driven stochastic model that provides simulations of hydroclimatic variables of interest for the historical climate condition. In NPScnGen, samples of any set of time-series characteristics, such as mean and standard deviation, are generated from a multivariate Gaussian process for the considered scenario, and then bootstrapping is performed to select the closest sample from the historical simulation of that hydroclimatic variable. We have also proposed a modified wavelet-based model, Wavelet-HMM, and used that model to synthetically generate historical climate time-series as a baseline. We present the application of the developed framework consisting of historical climate simulation and future climate projection approaches on rainfall and streamflow datasets for the Tampa Bay region in Florida.

Plain Language Summary: Water resources managers require a wide range of hypothetical but potential changes in hydroclimatic variables such as streamflow and rainfall to evaluate the sustenance of water supply systems in future. Existing scenario generation approaches are limited by either the complexity of statistical models or dependency on climate models which have their own limitations. In such a scenario, the developed non-parametric scenario generation framework in this study, NPScnGen, can be very useful. The developed framework can be applied with any sophisticated time-series generation model that can generate synthetic hydroclimatic traces for baseline climate condition, and it is also flexible in generating a wide range of potential climate change scenarios. We show the application of the framework on both streamflow and rainfall datasets.

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利用两阶段随机模拟框架生成水文气候情景
气候变化给各行各业的决策过程带来了重大挑战。从水资源规划和管理的角度来看,考虑到降雨量和溪流特征的潜在变化,评估未来状态下供水系统的性能往往是人们关心的问题。根据观测到的气候变化信号,基于情景预测的降雨量和流量模拟对于评估气候变化对水资源系统的潜在影响至关重要。鉴于现有方法的复杂性,它们在生成基于情景的流量和降雨预测方面的应用非常有限。我们开发了一种非参数引导方法 NPScnGen,用于生成任何水文气候变量的未来情景。所开发的方法非常灵活,可用于任何物理水文或数据驱动的随机模型,这些模型可提供历史气候条件下相关水文气候变量的模拟结果。在 NPScnGen 中,任何一组时间序列特征(如平均值和标准偏差)的样本都是根据所考虑情景的多元高斯过程生成的,然后进行引导,从该水文气候变量的历史模拟中选择最接近的样本。我们还提出了基于小波的改进模型 Wavelet-HMM,并使用该模型合成历史气候时间序列作为基线。我们介绍了在佛罗里达州坦帕湾地区的降雨量和溪流数据集上应用所开发的框架(包括历史气候模拟和未来气候预测方法)的情况。现有的情景生成方法受限于统计模型的复杂性或对气候模型的依赖性,而气候模型本身也有其局限性。在这种情况下,本研究开发的非参数情景生成框架 NPScnGen 就非常有用。所开发的框架可应用于任何复杂的时间序列生成模型,该模型可生成基线气候条件下的合成水文气候迹线,还可灵活生成各种潜在的气候变化情景。我们展示了该框架在河水流量和降雨量数据集上的应用。
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来源期刊
Advances in Water Resources
Advances in Water Resources 环境科学-水资源
CiteScore
9.40
自引率
6.40%
发文量
171
审稿时长
36 days
期刊介绍: Advances in Water Resources provides a forum for the presentation of fundamental scientific advances in the understanding of water resources systems. The scope of Advances in Water Resources includes any combination of theoretical, computational, and experimental approaches used to advance fundamental understanding of surface or subsurface water resources systems or the interaction of these systems with the atmosphere, geosphere, biosphere, and human societies. Manuscripts involving case studies that do not attempt to reach broader conclusions, research on engineering design, applied hydraulics, or water quality and treatment, as well as applications of existing knowledge that do not advance fundamental understanding of hydrological processes, are not appropriate for Advances in Water Resources. Examples of appropriate topical areas that will be considered include the following: • Surface and subsurface hydrology • Hydrometeorology • Environmental fluid dynamics • Ecohydrology and ecohydrodynamics • Multiphase transport phenomena in porous media • Fluid flow and species transport and reaction processes
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