Adapting reservoir operation to climate change in regions with long-term hydrologic persistence

IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.crm.2024.100623
Vahid Espanmanesh , Etienne Guilpart , Marc-André Bourgault , Amaury Tilmant
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Abstract

Large-scale climate variability patterns such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence the hydrology and hence affect the management of water resources in numerous regions around the globe. The presence of multiyear drought and wet periods is already challenging as these long, extreme, events tend to stress water resources systems much more than multiple, isolated, ones. This manuscript presents a variant of a hydrologically-driven approach to assess the performance of large-scale water resources systems in regions where the long-term persistence that characterizes the flow regime is likely to be affected by climate change. This approach comprises several steps including the construction of a large ensemble of hydrological projections which are bias-corrected in the frequency domain to account for the long-term persistence; the clustering of these projections based on hydrologic attributes to identify likely alterations of the flow regime; and the use of an optimization model to derive allocation policies tailored to identified alterations of the flow regime. The proposed approach is tested on the Senegal River basin which has experienced multiyear dry, normal, and wet periods in the past. The analysis of allocation policies highlights the relevance of climate-tailored policies in adapting to climate change, with climate tailored policies yielding moderate gains under the most extreme alterations, while they remain meaningful under more moderate ones.

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在具有长期水文持续性的地区使水库运行适应气候变化
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)等大尺度气候变异模式会影响水文,进而影响全球许多地区的水资源管理。多年干旱和湿润期的存在已经是一个挑战,因为这些长期的极端事件往往比多个孤立的事件对水资源系统造成更大的压力。本手稿介绍了一种水文驱动方法的变体,用于评估大规模水资源系统在水流状态的长期持续性可能受到气候变化影响的地区的表现。该方法由几个步骤组成,包括构建一个大型水文预测集合,在频域中对其进行偏差校正,以考虑长期持续性;根据水文属性对这些预测进行聚类,以确定流态可能发生的变化;以及使用优化模型,针对已确定的流态变化制定分配政策。所提议的方法在塞内加尔河流域进行了测试,该流域在过去经历了多年干旱、正常和潮湿时期。对分配政策的分析凸显了气候定制政策在适应气候变化方面的相关性,在最极端的变化情况下,气候定制政策会产生适度收益,而在较温和的变化情况下,气候定制政策仍然有意义。
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来源期刊
Climate Risk Management
Climate Risk Management Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
8.20
自引率
4.50%
发文量
76
审稿时长
30 weeks
期刊介绍: Climate Risk Management publishes original scientific contributions, state-of-the-art reviews and reports of practical experience on the use of knowledge and information regarding the consequences of climate variability and climate change in decision and policy making on climate change responses from the near- to long-term. The concept of climate risk management refers to activities and methods that are used by individuals, organizations, and institutions to facilitate climate-resilient decision-making. Its objective is to promote sustainable development by maximizing the beneficial impacts of climate change responses and minimizing negative impacts across the full spectrum of geographies and sectors that are potentially affected by the changing climate.
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