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What if farmers had seen it coming? The retrospective potential of extended-range forecasts in managing the 2018 drought in Norwegian agriculture 如果农民们预见到了它的到来呢?扩展范围预测在管理2018年挪威农业干旱方面的回顾性潜力
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100792
Manuel Hempel , Erik W. Kolstad
Climate variability and extreme weather events pose substantial challenges to global agriculture, threatening food security and self-sufficiency. In Norway, these impacts are anticipated to intensify with climate change. Extended-range weather forecasts, which predict conditions several weeks ahead, have emerged as powerful tools for enhancing agricultural decision-making and climate risk management.
The 2018 drought in Norway, the most severe agricultural crisis in decades, starkly highlighted the sector’s vulnerability to climate risks. This study investigates the potential benefits of extended-range forecasts, which were not available to farmers during the drought. We focused on whether these forecasts could have accurately predicted the drought and how they might have been leveraged by the agricultural sector.
Our findings reveal a high user demand and forecast relevance; however, significant gaps in communication, interpretation, and decision-making capacity were evident. Even if they had had access to the forecasts, individual farmers would have faced limited options to avert low yields due to the lack of adaptive infrastructure like irrigation systems. Yet, at the organizational level, there was substantial potential to enhance crisis management through improved communication strategies and decision-making frameworks.
Investments in resilient agricultural practices and infrastructure, combined with these improved strategies, would enable the agriculture sector to better leverage extended-range forecasts, resulting in better crisis management and mitigation of future extreme weather events.
The broader implication is clear: integrating reliable climate forecasts into agricultural decision-making processes can enhance resilience, by improving preparedness for increasing climate threats, thereby helping to secure food self-sufficiency in Norway and beyond.
气候变率和极端天气事件对全球农业构成重大挑战,威胁粮食安全和自给自足。在挪威,预计这些影响将随着气候变化而加剧。可预测未来数周天气状况的大范围天气预报已成为加强农业决策和气候风险管理的有力工具。2018年挪威的干旱是几十年来最严重的农业危机,突显了该行业对气候风险的脆弱性。这项研究调查了在干旱期间农民无法获得的扩展范围预测的潜在好处。我们关注的是这些预测是否能准确预测干旱,以及农业部门如何利用这些预测。我们的研究结果揭示了高用户需求和预测相关性;然而,在沟通、解释和决策能力方面存在明显差距。即使他们有机会获得预测,由于缺乏灌溉系统等适应性基础设施,个体农民也将面临有限的选择来避免低产量。然而,在组织一级,通过改进沟通战略和决策框架,有很大的潜力来加强危机管理。对抗灾农业做法和基础设施的投资,加上这些改进的战略,将使农业部门能够更好地利用大范围预报,从而更好地管理危机,减轻未来极端天气事件的影响。更广泛的含义是明确的:将可靠的气候预测纳入农业决策过程,可以通过提高对日益增加的气候威胁的准备来增强抵御能力,从而有助于确保挪威和其他国家的粮食自给自足。
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引用次数: 0
Navigating heatwaves in a temperate climate: barriers to behavioural adaptation in Dutch urban areas 在温带气候中导航热浪:荷兰城市地区行为适应的障碍
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100794
Istiaque Ahmed, Marjolein van Esch, Ana Petrović, Frank van der Hoeven
Heatwaves are no longer rare anomalies in temperate cities; they are lived, negotiated, and unevenly endured. Yet behavioural adaptation—a vital first line of defence—remains underexplored. Drawing on a sequential mixed-methods design integrating in-depth interviews (N = 21) and a nationwide survey (N = 1,849) across Dutch urban density gradients, this study shows that behavioural adaptation is less a matter of individual choice than of social, structural, and spatial constraint. Homeowners leveraged their control over private spaces to adopt both active and passive technological adjustments, achieving higher adaptation scores. Tenants, constrained by housing tenure, disproportionately relied on cultural adjustments rooted in social ties and experiential knowledge. Residents of very highly urbanised areas reported higher indoor temperatures and demonstrated the lowest adaptation scores, revealing density-driven limits to coping capacity. Gender and household composition further influenced adaptive capacity, with women and multi-person households displaying consistently stronger responses. By centring behavioural adaptation, the study identifies key barriers and exposes the mechanisms through which adaptation inequality takes shape in temperate urban settings.
在温带城市,热浪不再是罕见的反常现象;它们是活生生的,是协商的,是不均衡的忍受。然而,行为适应——至关重要的第一道防线——仍未得到充分探索。通过对荷兰城市密度梯度进行深度访谈(N = 21)和全国性调查(N = 1849)的连续混合方法设计,本研究表明,行为适应与其说是个人选择的问题,不如说是社会、结构和空间约束的问题。房主利用他们对私人空间的控制,采用主动和被动的技术调整,获得更高的适应分数。受住房使用权限制的租户,不成比例地依赖植根于社会关系和经验知识的文化调整。高度城市化地区的居民报告了较高的室内温度,表现出最低的适应得分,揭示了密度驱动的应对能力限制。性别和家庭构成进一步影响了适应能力,妇女和多口家庭始终表现出更强的反应。通过以行为适应为中心,该研究确定了主要障碍,并揭示了适应不平等在温带城市环境中形成的机制。
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引用次数: 0
Using news media to identify gaps in climate change adaptation research: Insights from the Philippines 利用新闻媒体识别气候变化适应研究中的差距:来自菲律宾的见解
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100793
Henry A. Bartelet , Luisa F. Bedoya Taborda , Princess P. Bedrijo
Climate change impacts are intensifying globally, with the most severe effects often occurring in regions already facing significant vulnerabilities. These areas are at the forefront of adaptation needs. While climate change adaptation research has expanded over the past decade, a critical question remains: does this growing body of work focus on the regions and sectors most affected by climate change? This study introduces a novel method for assessing on-the-ground climate impacts by analysing the prevalence of climate-related newspaper articles across time, geography, and impact categories. These media reports, used as proxies for experienced impacts, are systematically compared with the scholarly literature on climate adaptation through a systematic review of peer-reviewed publications. Applying this method in the Philippines, a country highly vulnerable to climate change, reveals a significant overlap in regional and thematic coverage between news reports and adaptation studies. However, there are some differences: adaptation studies declined after 2020, possibly reflecting shifts in research priorities during the COVID-19 pandemic; academic literature concentrated on regions with higher visibility, such as the National Capital Region and Western Visayas, while areas like Northern Mindanao and Ilocos were relatively understudied. Both sources emphasized agricultural impacts, highlighting farmers’ exposure to droughts, heavy rains, and severe storms, while news reports also captured urban vulnerabilities, including heat-related health risks and storm damage to infrastructure. Mentions of leptospirosis following severe storms suggest emerging health challenges that require further research. Until more objective localised impact data is available, media-based proxies offer a practical way to explore regional disparities in adaptation science and to contextualize adaptation policy priorities.
气候变化的影响正在全球范围内加剧,最严重的影响往往发生在已经面临严重脆弱性的地区。这些地区处于适应需求的最前沿。虽然气候变化适应研究在过去十年中得到了扩展,但一个关键问题仍然存在:这些不断增长的工作是否关注受气候变化影响最大的地区和部门?本研究通过分析与气候相关的报纸文章在时间、地理和影响类别上的流行程度,介绍了一种评估实地气候影响的新方法。通过对同行评议出版物的系统审查,将这些媒体报道与关于气候适应的学术文献进行系统比较,这些报道被用作已经历影响的代表。将这种方法应用于菲律宾这个极易受到气候变化影响的国家,发现新闻报道与适应研究在区域和专题报道方面存在显著重叠。然而,也存在一些差异:适应性研究在2020年之后有所下降,可能反映了2019冠状病毒病大流行期间研究重点的变化;学术文献集中在知名度较高的地区,如国家首都地区和西米沙鄢群岛,而对北棉兰老岛和伊洛科斯岛等地区的研究相对不足。这两个消息来源都强调了农业的影响,强调了农民面临干旱、暴雨和严重风暴的风险,而新闻报道也抓住了城市的脆弱性,包括与热有关的健康风险和风暴对基础设施的破坏。严重风暴后提到的钩端螺旋体病表明需要进一步研究的新出现的卫生挑战。在获得更客观的局部影响数据之前,基于媒体的代理提供了一种探索适应科学的区域差异和将适应政策优先事项置于背景下的实用方法。
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引用次数: 0
Just beach 只是海滩
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100790
Kammie-Dominique Tavares , Renee O. Setter , Tanya Dreizin , Alan Clinton , Alisha Summers , Makena Coffman
Sandy beaches are being squeezed out of existence due to a combination of erosion, coastal development, poor management practices, and sea level rise. This study offers a beach-scale analysis of the cost of managed retreat for the island of Kaua‘i through the end of the century, prompted by state laws to preserve sandy beaches and County efforts to implement proactive planning solutions. We estimate the cost of property acquisition, deconstruction, and infrastructural realignment across forty beaches under future projections of coastal erosion and sea level rise − a total of $3.1 billion ($2025). Half of the total costs through 2100 is for immediate (2025) needs ($1.7 billion), 94% of which is road infrastructure and the water supply pipes underneath. Infrastructure dominates the total cost of adaptation ($2.0 billion). While residential development represents the largest land use type impacted by coastal erosion, residential parcels account for the second greatest share of adaptation costs ($0.6 billion). Meanwhile, hotel and resort areas affect fewer beaches yet with substantial costs ($0.5 billion). Our results show that historical coastal planning decisions have created development lock-in patterns that make beach-centered adaptation costly. Furthermore, as achieving justice within adaptation relies on information at multiple spatial and temporal scales, this study can be used to inform broader deliberations for sea level rise adaptation.
由于侵蚀、海岸开发、管理不善和海平面上升,沙滩正在逐渐消失。这项研究提供了一个海滩规模的成本分析,到本世纪末,考艾岛管理撤退的成本,受到国家法律保护沙滩和县努力实施积极规划解决方案的推动。根据未来海岸侵蚀和海平面上升的预测,我们估计了40个海滩的房产收购、解构和基础设施重组的成本——总计31亿美元(2025年美元)。到2100年,总成本的一半将用于当下(2025年)的需求(17亿美元),其中94%用于道路基础设施和地下供水管道。基础设施占适应总成本的大头(20亿美元)。虽然住宅开发是受海岸侵蚀影响最大的土地利用类型,但住宅地块占适应成本的第二大份额(6亿美元)。与此同时,酒店和度假区对海滩的影响较少,但成本却很高(5亿美元)。我们的研究结果表明,历史上的沿海规划决策创造了发展锁定模式,使以海滩为中心的适应成本高昂。此外,由于在适应中实现正义依赖于多个时空尺度的信息,因此该研究可用于为更广泛的海平面上升适应讨论提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
Taking values seriously for transformational climate change adaptation 认真对待转型适应气候变化的价值观
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100791
Elisa Calliari , Tara Quinn , Michael Klenk , Lovleen Bhullar , Iva Peša , Matthew J. Dennis
Climate change is causing extensive and unprecedented impacts on individuals, societies, and ecosystems. Transformational efforts are increasingly advocated to overcome limits to climate change adaptation, but they can entail difficult and potentially disruptive decisions that depend on the goals that individuals and societies decide to pursue, and thus on the values they wish to prioritise, reconfigure or leave behind in response to radical changes. The call for transformational adaptation revives the impetus for placing values centre stage but also poses key challenges for adaptation research and practice. This perspective outlines three challenges for taking values seriously: understanding what values are, by acknowledging both their descriptive and normative dimensions; accounting for the multiplicity of value holders across space and time; and designing processes through which value conflicts are made explicit and can be legitimately resolved. We outline how ethics can help in determining the relation between what people find valuable and normatively well-grounded values; propose ‘value mapping’ exercises to elicit the values of actors involved in the adaptation process; and stress the potential of deliberative approaches in supporting efforts for more transformative adaptation. These challenges are exemplified through planned relocation, a radical and potentially transformative adaptation response. This paper outlines the distinction between descriptive and normative conceptions of values, a distinction often overlooked in environmental social sciences, and demonstrates its significance for addressing the multiplicity of values and conflicts in transformational adaptation. Rather than prescribing a definitive method for closing the gap between these descriptive and normative conceptions on values, it traces an initial pathway for integrating empirical and ethical perspectives and calls for renewed collaborations across the social sciences and humanities to advance values-based adaptation research and practice.
气候变化正在对个人、社会和生态系统造成广泛和前所未有的影响。越来越多的人提倡转型努力,以克服适应气候变化的限制,但这些努力可能需要做出困难和潜在破坏性的决定,这取决于个人和社会决定追求的目标,从而取决于他们希望优先考虑、重新配置或放弃的价值观,以应对激进的变化。对转型适应的呼吁重振了将价值观置于中心位置的动力,但也为适应研究和实践带来了关键挑战。这一观点概述了认真对待价值观的三个挑战:通过承认其描述性和规范性维度来理解价值观是什么;考虑到跨越空间和时间的价值持有者的多样性;设计流程,使价值冲突变得明确,并能合理地解决。我们概述了伦理如何帮助确定人们认为有价值的价值观与规范上有充分基础的价值观之间的关系;提出“价值映射”练习,以引出参与适应过程的行动者的价值观;并强调审议方法在支持更具变革性的适应努力方面的潜力。这些挑战体现在有计划的搬迁、激进的、可能具有变革性的适应应对措施上。本文概述了描述性和规范性价值观概念之间的区别,这一区别在环境社会科学中经常被忽视,并论证了其对解决转型适应中的价值观多样性和冲突的重要性。它没有规定一种明确的方法来缩小这些描述性和规范性价值观之间的差距,而是追溯了整合经验和伦理观点的初步途径,并呼吁在社会科学和人文科学之间重新开展合作,以推进基于价值观的适应研究和实践。
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引用次数: 0
The shift of heat-related respiratory mortality from 2005 to 2019 in China and its socioeconomic determinants 2005 - 2019年中国热相关呼吸道死亡率的变化及其社会经济决定因素
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100789
Xiaohui Ji , Peng Yin , Haomin Tan , Jiangmei Liu , Zhiying Jiang , Jinlei Qi , Guanhao He , Jianxiong Hu , Fengrui Jing , Ziqiang Lin , Tao Liu , Wenjun Ma , Maigeng Zhou
While extensive research has examined acute mortality risks associated with heat exposure, emerging evidence indicates a paradoxical decline in heat-attributable mortality across developed nations. Yet critical knowledge gaps persist regarding this epidemiological transition in China. Our study collected daily respiratory mortality data from 2,219 districts/counties in 31 provinces, China during 2005–2019. We investigated the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) experienced an increment of 0.124℃ per year from 2005 to 2019 (P = 0.038), while the excess risk (ER) associated with extreme heat declined from 9.46% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 4.81–14.32%) in 2005–2007 to 3.51% (95% CI: 2.12–4.92%) in 2017–2019, representing a 62.88% (95% CI: 55.31–69.99%) reduction. Similarly, the attributable fraction (AF) also decreased from 1.26% (95% CI: 0.57–1.92%) to 0.38% (95% CI: 0.21–0.55%), marking a 69.84% (95% CI: 48.91–89.24%) decrease. Stratified analyses revealed the mortality burdens decreases were more pronounced among males, individuals 0–64 years, southern China, and patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Urbanization rate, the prevalence of air conditioning, and green space were top three socioeconomic factors driving this temporal shift. Our analysis reveals an attenuation of heat-associated respiratory mortality between 2005–2019, concurrent with rising MMT exhibiting pronounced population and spatial disparities. It underscores the critical role of adaptive capacity in mitigating climate change-related health burdens, informing targeted public health strategies.
虽然广泛的研究已经检查了与热暴露相关的急性死亡风险,但新出现的证据表明,发达国家因热导致的死亡率出现了矛盾的下降。然而,关于中国这一流行病学转变的关键知识差距仍然存在。我们的研究收集了2005-2019年中国31个省2219个区/县的每日呼吸道死亡率数据。从2005年到2019年,最低死亡温度(MMT)每年增加0.124℃(P = 0.038),而与极端高温相关的超额风险(ER)从2005 - 2007年的9.46%(95%置信区间(CI): 4.81 ~ 14.32%)下降到2017-2019年的3.51% (95% CI: 2.12 ~ 4.92%),减少了62.88% (95% CI: 55.31 ~ 69.99%)。同样,归因分数(AF)也从1.26% (95% CI: 0.57-1.92%)下降到0.38% (95% CI: 0.21-0.55%),下降了69.84% (95% CI: 48.91-89.24%)。分层分析显示,死亡率负担的下降在男性、0-64岁的个体、中国南方和慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)患者中更为明显。城市化率、空调普及率和绿地是推动这一时间变化的三大社会经济因素。我们的分析显示,2005年至2019年期间,与热相关的呼吸道死亡率有所下降,同时MMT上升,表现出明显的人口和空间差异。它强调了适应能力在减轻与气候变化有关的健康负担、为有针对性的公共卫生战略提供信息方面的关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
When it rains, it pours: integration of equity in flood risk management in Boulder County, Colorado 祸不双全:科罗拉多州博尔德县洪水风险管理的整合
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100788
Lauren Stevenson, Elizabeth Reddy, Junko Munakata Marr, Marie Stettler Kleine
Flooding disproportionately impacts underserved and marginalized communities. Institutional means of addressing environmental injustice related to such events remain inadequate in the United States of America. Professionals involved in community engagement and risk management contend with these challenges nonetheless, drawing on their personal ideas about equity rather than formal guidance to do so. This study uses qualitative methods to explore how local, county, and region-level government professionals in Boulder County, Colorado, understand and engage with equity in flood risk management. We sort the approaches to equity that study participants described into three categories, responding to their focus on: access needs, traditionally and present-day overlooked groups, and the duty of a government employee to serve the whole community. While other scholars have productively categorized such ideas and practices in relation to theories of equity, we turn instead to notions of efficacious practice through design frameworks developed in disability studies. Doing so, we offer a model for understanding empirical approaches to equity that professionals may use in the absence of other guidance. . Our results show that disability studies can provide powerful insights for research on flood risk management. Further, they demonstrate the importance of critical engagement with how professionals navigate their work in support of equity in the context of substantial institutional failures.
洪水对服务不足和边缘化社区的影响尤为严重。在美利坚合众国,解决与此类事件有关的环境不公正现象的体制手段仍然不足。尽管如此,参与社区参与和风险管理的专业人士仍在应对这些挑战,他们利用自己对公平的个人想法,而不是正式的指导。本研究使用定性方法探讨科罗拉多州博尔德县的地方、县和区级政府专业人员如何理解和参与洪水风险管理的公平性。我们将研究参与者描述的实现公平的方法分为三类,以回应他们关注的重点:获取需求,传统和现在被忽视的群体,以及政府雇员为整个社区服务的责任。虽然其他学者已经将这些想法和实践与公平理论进行了富有成效的分类,但我们通过残疾研究中开发的设计框架转向有效实践的概念。这样做,我们提供了一个模型来理解实证方法的公平,专业人士可能会在缺乏其他指导的情况下使用。我们的研究结果表明,残疾研究可以为洪水风险管理研究提供强有力的见解。此外,他们还证明了在重大制度失败的背景下,专业人士如何在支持公平的工作中进行批判性参与的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing climate change impacts on military academies: a comparative analysis of the United States Military Academy and the South African Military Academy 评估气候变化对军事学院的影响:美国军事学院和南非军事学院的比较分析
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100784
Mark Read , Hennie Smit , Ivan Henrico , Babalwa Mtshawu , Lesley Welman
Climate change poses growing challenges to military institutions, particularly academies where training, education, and infrastructure are co-located. This study assesses how climate change may affect the United States Military Academy (USMA) at West Point and the South African Military Academy (SAMA) in Saldanha, focusing on implications for training activities, academic programmes, and infrastructure resilience. USMA, located in New York’s Hudson Highlands, is experiencing a warming Humid Continental climate with rising temperatures, stronger tropical cyclones, increased precipitation, and heightened flood risk. SAMA, situated on South Africa’s West Coast, faces a hotter and drier Mediterranean climate, with projected declines in rainfall and sustained water scarcity. Using descriptive climatic data and institutional information, the study compares the climate-related pressures likely to affect each academy over coming decades. The analysis shows that although the academies face distinct climatic trajectories, both will need to adapt training protocols, strengthen infrastructure, and integrate climate resilience into defence education. The findings underscore the importance of coordinated planning and proactive adaptation measures to sustain mission readiness and ensure that future military leaders are adequately prepared for climate-related operational and strategic challenges.
气候变化给军事机构带来了越来越大的挑战,尤其是那些训练、教育和基础设施都在同一地点的院校。本研究评估了气候变化如何影响西点军校的美国军事学院(USMA)和萨尔达尼亚的南非军事学院(SAMA),重点关注对培训活动、学术项目和基础设施恢复能力的影响。USMA位于纽约哈德逊高地,正经历着温暖潮湿的大陆性气候,气温上升,热带气旋更强,降水增加,洪水风险增加。SAMA位于南非西海岸,面临着更热、更干燥的地中海气候,预计降雨量会减少,水资源会持续短缺。利用描述性气候数据和机构信息,该研究比较了未来几十年可能影响每个学院的气候相关压力。分析表明,尽管两所院校面临着不同的气候轨迹,但它们都需要调整培训协议,加强基础设施,并将气候适应能力纳入国防教育。研究结果强调了协调规划和主动适应措施的重要性,以维持任务准备,并确保未来的军事领导人为气候相关的业务和战略挑战做好充分准备。
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引用次数: 0
Heat-health risk knowledge, perceptions, adaptation, and challenges in Mozambique: insights from community members and health professionals 莫桑比克的热健康风险知识、认知、适应和挑战:来自社区成员和卫生专业人员的见解
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100786
Carolina Pereira Marghidan , Osvaldo Inlamea , Granelio Tamele , Paulo Notiço , Pedro Inguana , Américo José , Eduardo Samo Gudo , Erin Coughlan de Perez , Justine Blanford , Maarten van Aalst , Tatiana Marrufo
Intro: Extreme heat is increasing across Mozambique, yet evidence on how heat is perceived, experienced, and how it impacts communities and key sectors remains limited. Methods: This exploratory study examines heat-health risk knowledge and perceptions, occupational and healthcare challenges, and adaptation strategies in Maputo City and Matola Municipality, the country’s largest urban area. Using a purposive sampling approach, we conducted 95 structured surveys between January and April 2023 (56 community members (C); 39 health professionals (H)), combining closed- and open-ended questions. These perspectives offer insight into local heat risks from key actors positioned to recognize and respond to heat risks, providing essential initial evidence to inform heat preparedness and policy in Mozambique. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, non-parametric group comparison tests and ordinal logistic regression, and inductive thematic analysis for open-ended responses. Results: Nearly all participants (98%) perceived that extreme heat had increased in recent years and viewed it as a severe public health threat, with most rating the risk at the maximum level (10/10). Most respondents perceived themselves as “very much” vulnerable to heat (C: 55%, H: 39%), primarily due to health impacts and inadequate housing and work conditions contributing to high exposure. Heat was reported to affect healthcare delivery through increased patient load, equipment failures, and difficulties in storing medicines, as well as reducing labour productivity due to physical and mental fatigue. Although 94% reported receiving heat warnings, participants emphasized that warnings do not consistently reach vulnerable groups and called for more community-based dissemination. Conclusion: Extreme heat is already affecting daily life and healthcare services in urban Mozambique. Building resilience will require low-cost, equitable adaptation measures, strengthened health system preparedness, and coordinated institutional responses as heatwaves intensify. In data-scarce settings, frontline community and health-system perspectives are particularly valuable to understand local heat-health risks.
简介:莫桑比克各地的极端高温正在增加,但关于如何感知、体验高温及其对社区和关键部门的影响的证据仍然有限。方法:本探索性研究考察了马普托市和马托拉市(该国最大的城市地区)的热健康风险知识和观念、职业和医疗保健挑战以及适应策略。采用有目的的抽样方法,我们在2023年1月至4月期间进行了95次结构化调查(56名社区成员(C);39名卫生专业人员(H)),结合了封闭式和开放式问题。这些观点为识别和应对高温风险的关键行为者提供了对当地高温风险的洞察,为莫桑比克的高温防范和政策提供了重要的初步证据。数据分析采用描述性统计、非参数组比较检验和有序逻辑回归,以及开放式回答的归纳专题分析。结果:几乎所有参与者(98%)都认为近年来极端高温有所增加,并将其视为严重的公共卫生威胁,大多数人将风险评为最高水平(10/10)。大多数答复者认为自己“非常”容易受热影响(C: 55%, H: 39%),主要原因是健康影响以及住房和工作条件不足导致高暴露。据报告,高温会增加病人负荷、设备故障、药品储存困难,以及由于身心疲劳而降低劳动生产率,从而影响医疗保健服务的提供。尽管94%的人报告收到了高温警报,但与会者强调,警报并没有始终到达弱势群体,并呼吁更多地以社区为基础进行传播。结论:极端高温已经影响到莫桑比克城市的日常生活和卫生保健服务。建设抗灾能力需要采取低成本、公平的适应措施,加强卫生系统的准备工作,并在热浪加剧时协调机构应对措施。在数据匮乏的情况下,一线社区和卫生系统的观点对于了解当地的热健康风险特别有价值。
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引用次数: 0
Climate risk adaptation through disaster insurance: Understanding purchase behavior of farmers threatened by flash floods in rural China 基于灾害保险的气候风险适应:了解中国农村受山洪威胁农民的购买行为
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100787
Feiting Gao, Li Peng, Damin Zhou, Shuai Liang
Climate-related disasters such as flash floods pose severe threats to rural communities, making effective adaptation strategies essential for reducing risks and strengthening resilience. Disaster insurance, as an important climate policy instrument, can mitigate economic losses. However, a gap remains between their willingness to buy and actual purchase of disaster insurance. In this study, a research framework integrating partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), probit regression, and mediation analysis was employed to explore the factors influencing farmers’ disaster insurance purchase behavior (DIPB) in the Longmen Mountain region of southwest China, which is under frequent threat of climate-induced hazards. A household survey of 536 farmers was conducted, and the probit regression analysis revealed that their DIPB was strongly linked to their willingness to purchase insurance as well as their insurance awareness. Other factors that influenced their purchase behavior included their age, health status, education level, and labor out-migration. The PLS-SEM results indicated that farmers’ disaster preparedness expectations (DPE) were shaped by village capacity building, trust in government, and risk perception. In addition, participation in community-based disaster management (PCDM) was found to play a mediating role between expectations and behavior. These findings highlight the need for climate policy frameworks that integrate individual decision-making, community-based adaptation, and institutional trust to promote disaster insurance uptake. Policy recommendations are offered for expanding insurance coverage, enhancing rural resilience, and embedding disaster risk transfer into broader climate adaptation strategies.
山洪等与气候有关的灾害对农村社区构成严重威胁,因此制定有效的适应战略对于降低风险和增强抵御能力至关重要。灾害保险作为一项重要的气候政策工具,可以减轻经济损失。然而,他们购买灾难保险的意愿和实际购买之间仍然存在差距。本文采用偏最小二乘结构方程模型(PLS-SEM)、probit回归和中介分析相结合的研究框架,探讨了气候灾害频发的龙门山区农民灾害保险购买行为的影响因素。通过对536名农户的入户调查,probit回归分析显示,农户的DIPB与农户购买保险的意愿和保险意识有密切关系。影响其购买行为的其他因素包括年龄、健康状况、受教育程度和外迁。PLS-SEM结果显示,农户备灾预期受村庄能力建设、政府信任和风险认知的影响。此外,参与社区灾害管理(PCDM)在期望和行为之间起中介作用。这些发现突出表明,需要建立气候政策框架,将个人决策、社区适应和机构信任结合起来,以促进灾害保险的吸收。报告提出了扩大保险覆盖面、增强农村抵御能力以及将灾害风险转移纳入更广泛的气候适应战略的政策建议。
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Climate Risk Management
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