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Risk Governance of Climate-Related Hazards in Longyearbyen, Svalbard: A Review of Risk Governance Approaches and Knowledge Gaps 斯瓦尔巴群岛朗伊尔城与气候相关灾害的风险治理:风险治理方法和知识差距综述
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100585
Stig Johannessen , Holt Hancock , Siiri Wickström , Eirik Albrechtsen

Climate-related risks pose challenges to communities globally as changing climatic conditions alter the patterns of natural hazards which threaten human lives and infrastructure. In Longyearbyen, Norway, in the High Arctic Svalbard archipelago, climatic changes presently occur at rates well in excess of global means, with corresponding changes to climate-related risks requiring new and improved risk governance strategies. Here, we present the results from a literature review investigating how recent advances in climate-related risk governance can help inform risk governance strategy development in Longyearbyen. The literature identified in our work indicates recent research into the governance of climate-related risks has focused to a large extent on flooding or landslides. Successful risk governance in the reviewed literature often included data collection of both environmental and social information and emphasized local, context-specific knowledge via bi-directional risk communication throughout the risk governance process. We identified knowledge gaps in the literature review. First, there is a missing societal safety perspective on climate changes and natural hazards: much of the identified literature views the climatic changes and natural hazards either through a physical process-based perspective rooted in the natural sciences, or focuses on physical mitigation measures, without considering the interaction of nature, technology, and society. Second, there is a lack of research on data collection and analysis strategies that combine the acquisition of local knowledge via a discourse-based approach with data and knowledge generated from sensors or physical models via a technical approach. Third, more research is required on uncertainty assessment and handling in the risk governance process. Fourth, there is missing consideration of short-term disaster handling approaches – especially in relation to relatively more frequent consideration of long-term climate adaptation strategies. Finally, as none of the reviewed works specifically addressed risk governance in an Arctic setting, we discuss how the results from this literature review and the proposed risk governance framework can help transfer knowledge to Longyearbyen’s context. Our results help clarify current knowledge related to the governance of climate-related risks and provide a foundation for future work in Arctic locations.

气候相关风险给全球社区带来了挑战,因为不断变化的气候条件改变了威胁人类生命和基础设施的自然灾害模式。在挪威斯瓦尔巴群岛高纬度地区的朗伊尔边,目前气候变化的速度远远超过了全球平均水平,与气候相关的风险也随之发生变化,这就要求制定新的、更好的风险治理战略。在此,我们介绍了一项文献综述的结果,该综述调查了与气候相关的风险治理方面的最新进展如何帮助朗伊尔边制定风险治理战略。我们在工作中发现的文献表明,近期对气候相关风险治理的研究在很大程度上侧重于洪水或滑坡。在所查阅的文献中,成功的风险治理通常包括对环境和社会信息的数据收集,并在整个风险治理过程中通过双向风险交流强调对当地具体情况的了解。我们在文献综述中发现了一些知识空白。首先,气候变化和自然灾害的社会安全视角缺失:大部分已发现的文献要么通过植根于自然科学的基于物理过程的视角来看待气候变化和自然灾害,要么侧重于物理减缓措施,而没有考虑自然、技术和社会的相互作用。其次,缺乏对数据收集和分析策略的研究,这些策略将通过基于话语的方法获取当地知识与通过技术方法从传感器或物理模型生成的数据和知识相结合。第三,需要对风险治理过程中的不确定性评估和处理开展更多研究。第四,缺少对短期灾害处理方法的考虑--尤其是相对于更频繁考虑的长期气候适应战略而言。最后,由于所审查的著作中没有一部专门针对北极环境下的风险治理,我们讨论了本次文献审查的结果和建议的风险治理框架如何有助于将知识转移到朗伊尔城的环境中。我们的研究结果有助于澄清当前与气候相关风险治理有关的知识,并为今后在北极地区开展工作奠定基础。
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引用次数: 0
Effectiveness and resilience of BMPs to watershed climate adaptation considering the uncertainty of hydrological model and GCMs 考虑到水文模型和 GCM 的不确定性,BMP 对流域气候适应的有效性和复原力
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100612
Bowen Zhang , Ying Chen , Xingwei Chen , Lu Gao , Haijun Deng , Meibing Liu

Climate change significantly impacts catchment hydrologic and water quality processes. Best management practices (BMPs) can serve as adaptation strategies to negate the impact of climate change on sediment and total nitrogen (TN) loads. One major controversial issue in climate change adaptation studies is the highly uncertain nature of such changes. Previous studies have rarely focused on the combined impact of the uncertainty in climate change and watershed model parameters, which could be the main sources of uncertainty in climate change adaptation research. In this study, the effectiveness and resilience (defined as continued effectiveness under a changing climate) of BMPs in reducing sediment and TN loads were explored under future climate change in the Shanmei Reservoir watershed (SMW) of Southeast China. Climate change projections provided by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from 2031 to 2060 were applied in the Annualized Agricultural Nonpoint Source (AnnAGNPS) model to evaluate the effectiveness and resilience of 4 BMPs (riparian buffers (RB), no-tillage (NT), fertilization reduction (FR), and parallel terraces (PT)). The ensemble average of 10 GCMs and 10 behavior parameter groups were adopted to reduce the uncertainty resulting from the hydrological model parameters and GCMs. The results indicated that the average annual temperature and precipitation in the SMW will increase in the future. On a seasonal scale, the average temperature during all seasons will increase, and precipitation will decrease in summer and autumn but increase in spring and winter. The annual sediment and TN loads will decrease, but the loads in spring and winter will increase. BMPs could be effective as climate adaptation strategies for reducing sediment and TN loads under future climate conditions, with PT as the most effective option. Structural BMPs were more effective in reducing sediment and TN loads in spring and winter, whereas nonstructural BMPs were more effective in reducing loads in summer and autumn. BMPs were more resilient when future watershed runoff changes were slight or climate sensitivity was reduced, with higher BMP resilience in spring and winter than in summer and autumn. This study aimed to provide systematic references for watersheds through the implementation of BMPs for mitigating the effects of climate change and extending the boundaries of the AnnAGNPS model application.

气候变化会对流域水文和水质过程产生重大影响。最佳管理实践(BMP)可作为适应战略,以消除气候变化对沉积物和总氮(TN)负荷的影响。气候变化适应研究中的一个主要争议问题是这种变化的高度不确定性。以往的研究很少关注气候变化和流域模型参数不确定性的综合影响,而这可能是气候变化适应研究中不确定性的主要来源。本研究探讨了中国东南部山美水库流域(SMW)在未来气候变化条件下,BMP 在减少泥沙和 TN 负荷方面的有效性和恢复力(定义为在气候变化条件下的持续有效性)。在年化农业非点源(AnnAGNPS)模型中应用了 10 个大气环流模型(GCM)提供的 2031 年至 2060 年 SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0 和 SSP5-8.5 情景下的气候变化预测,以评估 4 种 BMP(河岸缓冲区(RB)、免耕(NT)、减少施肥(FR)和平行梯田(PT))的有效性和恢复力。采用了 10 个 GCM 和 10 个行为参数组的集合平均值,以减少水文模型参数和 GCM 带来的不确定性。结果表明,未来 SMW 的年平均气温和降水量都将增加。从季节尺度来看,四季平均气温都将升高,降水量将在夏秋两季减少,而在春冬两季增加。年沉积物和 TN 负荷将减少,但春季和冬季的负荷将增加。在未来气候条件下,BMP 可作为减少沉积物和 TN 负荷的有效气候适应战略,其中 PT 是最有效的选择。结构性 BMP 在减少春季和冬季的沉积物和 TN 负荷方面更为有效,而非结构性 BMP 在减少夏季和秋季的负荷方面更为有效。当未来流域径流变化轻微或气候敏感性降低时,BMP 的复原力更强,春季和冬季的 BMP 复原力高于夏季和秋季。本研究旨在通过实施 BMP 为流域提供系统参考,以减轻气候变化的影响,并扩展 AnnAGNPS 模型的应用范围。
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引用次数: 0
How is the military and defence sector of EU member states adapting to climate risks? 欧盟成员国的军事和国防部门如何适应气候风险?
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100609
Yamani Amakrane, Robbert Biesbroek

Climate change has direct and indirect consequences for the military and defence sector. Direct impacts are for example the damaging of military infrastructure due to more extreme climatic conditions or the impact on operational capabilities when on missions. Indirect impacts include the increase of global instability and insecurity, or migration due to changing climatic conditions. Climate change risks are often seen as a threat multiplier. Whilst the impacts of climate change on the military and defence sector is gaining attention in both political and scientific realms, the way this sector adapts to these risks is, however, still pretty much unknown.

This research aims to assess how the European Union member states’ military and defence sector are adapting to the impacts of climate change. We map and analyse the current policy actions by analysing the defence and climate policy documents (n = 63) and conducting interviews (n = 8) with civil servants of defence ministries across the EU. We find that almost none of the countries have a concrete climate change adaptation plan for their military. Whilst several frontrunner countries do mention climate change in their defence policy documents, they lack concrete policy goals and instruments. Moreover, concrete adaptation measures are not discussed by most of the countries. France is a notable exemption as it offers more detailed policies, but they too are at the groundwork stage. Hardly any reference to the military was found in the climate policy documents of the countries. The results show that the military and defence sector of the EU member states are not well prepared to the impacts of climate change and that concerted action is needed to close the adaptation gap adequately and effectively.

气候变化对军事和国防部门有着直接和间接的影响。例如,直接影响是由于更极端的气候条件对军事基础设施造成破坏,或对执行任务时的作战能力造成影响。间接影响包括全球不稳定和不安全因素的增加,或因气候条件变化导致的人口迁移。气候变化风险通常被视为威胁倍增器。本研究旨在评估欧盟成员国的军事和国防部门如何适应气候变化的影响。我们通过分析欧盟各国的国防和气候政策文件(63 份)以及与国防部公务员的访谈(8 次),绘制并分析了当前的政策行动。我们发现,几乎没有一个国家为其军队制定了具体的气候变化适应计划。虽然一些领先国家在其国防政策文件中提到了气候变化,但它们缺乏具体的政策目标和手段。此外,大多数国家都没有讨论具体的适应措施。法国是一个明显的例外,因为它提供了更详细的政策,但这些政策也处于基础阶段。在各国的气候政策文件中,几乎没有提及军事问题。研究结果表明,欧盟成员国的军事和国防部门对气候变化的影响准备不足,需要采取协调一致的行动,充分有效地缩小适应差距。
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引用次数: 0
Transformative crop insurance solution with big earth data: Implementation for potato in India 利用地球大数据的变革性作物保险解决方案:印度马铃薯的实施情况
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100622
C.S. Murthy , Karun Kumar Choudhary , Varun Pandey , P. Srikanth , Siddesh Ramasubramanian , G. Senthil Kumar , Malay Kumar Poddar , Cristina Milesi , Ramakrishna Nemani

Context

Crop insurance has become an indispensable risk management tool in the agricultural sector because globally crops are being exposed to multiple hazards. The lack of reliable crop yield data has impacted the sustenance of area-yield crop insurance schemes. Index-based insurance, which links pay-outs to crop performance proxies rather than measured losses, is being explored to improve the effectiveness of crop insurance contracts.

Objective

This paper presents an innovative crop insurance scheme that has replaced the existing ‘area-yield’ approach using bias-prone crop yield estimates with the ‘area-crop performance approach’ using objectively measured satellite indices.

Method

Satellite-based crop mapping, satellite and weather-based crop health indicators, field data collection and analysis, composite index generation, and insurance loss assessment are major tasks in the project. Data of Sentinel-1 and 2 satellites, weather datasets and mobile app-based field data from transplantation to harvesting of the crop constituted a huge repository of the database in this project. Metrics derived from established satellite indices, such as NDVI, LSWI and Backscatter, along with weather indices, were synthesized into a composite index of crop performance called Crop Health Factor (CHF). The input data matrix of the CHF model included eight input indicators. After data normalization, weights for these indicators were generated using the entropy technique, a proven method of information measurement that produces balanced relationships and unbiased weights. The CHF was first generated with data from the past years (2016–2019), and the resulting weights were then applied to the normalized data of the current year (2020).

Results

The current crop insurance scheme, using CHF data instead of yield data, was implemented in the state of West Bengal, India, covering about 500,000 ha of potato across and one thousand insurance units in the 2020 crop season. The CHF and yield data from past years showed similar patterns in the majority of cases. The indemnity level was set at 70 % of the normal CHF, which was the average CHF of past years. Loss assessment and compensation payouts for the current year were determined by the extent of CHF reduction beyond the indemnity level.

Significance

This new index-insurance scheme has many advantages over the conventional yield-based scheme in terms of transparency, objectivity and ease of implementation. There is scope for improving the composite index with additional features. Such technology-driven index-insurance schemes for field crops are expected to bring a paradigm shift in the crop insurance sector, giving rise to new business models and benefitting all the stakeholders.

背景作物保险已成为农业部门不可或缺的风险管理工具,因为全球作物都面临着多种危害。由于缺乏可靠的作物产量数据,地区产量作物保险计划难以为继。本文介绍了一种创新的作物保险计划,该计划利用客观测量的卫星指数的 "面积-作物表现法 "取代了现有的使用容易产生偏差的作物产量估算的 "面积-产量法"。哨兵 1 号和 2 号卫星的数据、气象数据集以及基于移动应用程序的从作物移植到收获的田间数据构成了该项目的庞大数据库。从 NDVI、LSWI 和反向散射等已建立的卫星指数以及天气指数中得出的度量指标被综合成一个作物性能综合指数,称为作物健康因子(CHF)。CHF 模型的输入数据矩阵包括八个输入指标。在对数据进行归一化处理后,使用熵技术生成这些指标的权重。熵技术是一种行之有效的信息测量方法,可产生平衡关系和无偏权重。首先使用过去几年(2016-2019 年)的数据生成 CHF,然后将生成的权重应用于当年(2020 年)的归一化数据。结果目前的作物保险计划使用 CHF 数据代替产量数据,在印度西孟加拉邦实施,2020 年作物季覆盖约 50 万公顷马铃薯和 1,000 个保险单位。往年的CHF数据和产量数据在大多数情况下显示出相似的模式。赔偿额设定为正常 CHF 的 70%,即往年的平均 CHF。这一新的指数保险计划与传统的基于收益率的计划相比,在透明度、客观性和易于实施方面具有许多优势。综合指数还有改进的余地,可以增加新的功能。这种以技术为驱动力的大田作物指数保险计划有望为农作物保险行业带来模式转变,催生新的商业模式,使所有利益相关者受益。
{"title":"Transformative crop insurance solution with big earth data: Implementation for potato in India","authors":"C.S. Murthy ,&nbsp;Karun Kumar Choudhary ,&nbsp;Varun Pandey ,&nbsp;P. Srikanth ,&nbsp;Siddesh Ramasubramanian ,&nbsp;G. Senthil Kumar ,&nbsp;Malay Kumar Poddar ,&nbsp;Cristina Milesi ,&nbsp;Ramakrishna Nemani","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100622","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2024.100622","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Context</h3><p>Crop insurance has become an indispensable risk management tool in the agricultural sector because globally crops are being exposed to multiple hazards. The lack of reliable crop yield data has impacted the sustenance of area-yield crop insurance schemes. Index-based insurance, which links pay-outs to crop performance proxies rather than measured losses, is being explored to improve the effectiveness of crop insurance contracts.</p></div><div><h3>Objective</h3><p>This paper presents an innovative crop insurance scheme that has replaced the existing ‘area-yield’ approach using bias-prone crop yield estimates with the ‘area-crop performance approach’ using objectively measured satellite indices.</p></div><div><h3>Method</h3><p>Satellite-based crop mapping, satellite and weather-based crop health indicators, field data collection and analysis, composite index generation, and insurance loss assessment are major tasks in the project. Data of Sentinel-1 and 2 satellites, weather datasets and mobile app-based field data from transplantation to harvesting of the crop constituted a huge repository of the database in this project. Metrics derived from established satellite indices, such as NDVI, LSWI and Backscatter, along with weather indices, were synthesized into a composite index of crop performance called Crop Health Factor (CHF). The input data matrix of the CHF model included eight input indicators. After data normalization, weights for these indicators were generated using the entropy technique, a proven method of information measurement that produces balanced relationships and unbiased weights. The CHF was first generated with data from the past years (2016–2019), and the resulting weights were then applied to the normalized data of the current year (2020).</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>The current crop insurance scheme, using CHF data instead of yield data, was implemented in the state of West Bengal, India, covering about 500,000 ha of potato across and one thousand insurance units in the 2020 crop season. The CHF and yield data from past years showed similar patterns in the majority of cases. The indemnity level was set at 70 % of the normal CHF, which was the average CHF of past years. Loss assessment and compensation payouts for the current year were determined by the extent of CHF reduction beyond the indemnity level.</p></div><div><h3>Significance</h3><p>This new index-insurance scheme has many advantages over the conventional yield-based scheme in terms of transparency, objectivity and ease of implementation. There is scope for improving the composite index with additional features. Such technology-driven index-insurance schemes for field crops are expected to bring a paradigm shift in the crop insurance sector, giving rise to new business models and benefitting all the stakeholders.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"45 ","pages":"Article 100622"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000391/pdfft?md5=f9a75891c1b74a1e9e5572d3f2096627&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000391-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141290305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Defining severe risks related to mobility from climate change 界定气候变化带来的与流动性相关的严重风险
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100601
Elisabeth A. Gilmore , David Wrathall , Helen Adams , Halvard Buhaug , Edwin Castellanos , Nathalie Hilmi , Robert McLeman , Chandni Singh , Ibidun Adelekan

While migration is often conceptualized as an adaptive response to climate hazards, migration can also present severe risks to people on the move. In this paper, we attempt to operationalize the Representative Key Risks (RKR) framework of the Sixth Assessment Report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for human mobility. First, we provide a framework for understanding how mobility risks emerge by engaging with the concept of habitability. We argue that uninhabitability occurs where the physical environment loses suitability and where there is a loss of agency in local populations. The severity of the risk from the loss of habitability is then represented by the high potential for human suffering. When climate hazards affect physical suitability and agency, the forms of migration that occur undermine human wellbeing and the right to self-determination: forced displacement, community relocation/resettlement, and involuntary immobility. Second, we show how such forms of mobility are more or less likely along different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). This paper asserts a central concern around human suffering to recentre scenario discourse on where, and how, adaptation, changes to development patterns, and government policies can reduce this suffering. Proactive governance at local, national, and international levels that attends to people’s adaptation and mobility needs can avert the more frequent emergence of severe risks related to mobility in a changing climate.

虽然人们通常将迁徙视为对气候灾害的一种适应性反应,但迁徙也会给迁徙者带来严重的风险。在本文中,我们尝试将政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第二工作组第六次评估报告中的代表性关键风险(RKR)框架应用于人类流动。首先,我们提供了一个框架,通过可居住性的概念来理解流动性风险是如何出现的。我们认为,当自然环境失去适宜性,当地居民失去自主权时,就会出现不适宜居住的情况。丧失可居住性所带来的风险的严重性体现在人类遭受痛苦的可能性很高。当气候灾害影响到物质环境的适宜性和能动性时,就会出现损害人类福祉和自决权的迁移形式:被迫流离失所、社区搬迁/重新安置和非自愿流动。其次,我们说明了在不同的共享社会经济路径(SSPs)上,这些流动形式的可能性有大有小。本文围绕人类苦难展开中心讨论,探讨适应、发展模式的改变以及政府政策在哪些方面以及如何减少人类苦难。在地方、国家和国际层面上,关注人们的适应和流动性需求的积极治理可以避免在不断变化的气候中更频繁地出现与流动性相关的严重风险。
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引用次数: 0
Is climate migration successful adaptation or maladaptation? A holistic assessment of outcomes in Kenya 气候迁移是成功适应还是适应不良?对肯尼亚成果的整体评估
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100614
Amit Tubi, Yael Israeli

Research is increasingly approaching migration as an adaptation to climate risk. Yet our understanding of the migration-adaptation nexus remains limited, as most studies conceptualize migration as either adaptive or maladaptive and focus on specific aspects of vulnerability. To advance a comprehensive understanding of migration’s successful and maladaptive effects, this study employs a two-dimensional conceptualization of migration outcomes, encompassing a range of vulnerability variables at the migrant and household levels and migrants’ well-being. This framework is applied to the case of drought-influenced migration from agro-pastoralist northern Kenya to the City of Nairobi. Based on semi-structured interviews with 40 long-term migrants, we identify quantitative and qualitative migration-induced changes in the examined variables.

The results highlight the complexity of migration outcomes. Effects on the broad range of variables comprising vulnerability’s exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity components are mixed. Migrants’ ability to provide their families’ basic needs has improved, although only half of the households could allocate remittances to reconstruct their drought-stricken livelihood sources in northern Kenya. Moreover, the profound change in social-environmental settings induced by migration exposed migrants to unfamiliar risks, such as urban crime, but also to new sources of adaptive capacity, such as knowledge enabling the development of climate-insensitive livelihoods. However, migration’s partial success in reducing vulnerability came at the expense of migrants’ well-being, which diminished drastically. These findings stress the need for fundamental changes in the migration-as-adaptation literature, including a more thorough engagement with the temporalities and scope of migration’s effects on adaptation, greater attention to the tradeoffs that are integral to migration as adaptation, and a shift to analytical frameworks that consider maladaptive effects alongside successful ones. We argue that these changes are essential to develop interventions that maximize migration’s adaptive potential while minimizing its maladaptive effects.

越来越多的研究将移民作为适应气候风险的一种方式。然而,我们对移民与适应之间关系的理解仍然有限,因为大多数研究将移民概念化为适应性或适应性不良,并侧重于脆弱性的特定方面。为了全面了解移民的成功影响和不适应影响,本研究采用了移民结果的二维概念,包括移民和家庭层面的一系列脆弱性变量以及移民的福祉。这一框架适用于受干旱影响从肯尼亚北部农牧区向内罗毕市迁移的案例。根据对 40 名长期移民进行的半结构式访谈,我们确定了所研究变量中由移民引发的定量和定性变化。结果凸显了移民结果的复杂性。对脆弱性的暴露、敏感性和适应能力等一系列变量的影响是混合的。尽管只有一半的家庭能够将汇款用于重建其在肯尼亚北部遭受旱灾的生计来源,但移民满足其家庭基本需求的能力得到了提高。此外,移民引起的社会环境的深刻变化使移民面临陌生的风险,如城市犯罪,但也带来了新的适应能力来源,如能够发展对气候不敏感的生计的知识。然而,移民在降低脆弱性方面的部分成功是以移民的福祉为代价的,移民的福祉急剧下降。这些研究结果表明,移民适应性文献需要做出根本性的改变,包括更深入地研究移民对适应性影响的时间性和范围,更多关注移民适应性中不可或缺的权衡因素,以及转向分析框架,在考虑成功效应的同时考虑不适应效应。我们认为,这些变化对于制定干预措施,最大限度地发挥移民的适应潜力,同时最大限度地减少其不良影响至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Flood risk and climate change: A disconnect between homeowners’ awareness and mitigating actions? 洪水风险与气候变化:房主的认识与减灾行动脱节?
IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100616
David-Jan Jansen

Based on two surveys among Dutch homeowners, we find evidence for a disconnect between flood risk awareness and intentions to mitigate climate change. In terms of awareness, we find that owners of at-risk properties are 9.8 percentage points more likely to see floods as the main threat to their home. However, at-risk owners are also 4.6 percentage points less likely to consider improving their property’s energy efficiency. Trust in flood protection turns out to be a moderator variable. In particular, at-risk owners with high levels of trust are less likely to consider improving energy efficiency than at-risk owners with low levels of trust in flood protection. We discuss implications for climate risk communication.

根据对荷兰房主的两项调查,我们发现洪水风险意识与减缓气候变化的意愿之间存在脱节。在意识方面,我们发现高风险房产的业主将洪水视为其房屋主要威胁的可能性要高出 9.8 个百分点。然而,高风险房产的业主考虑提高其房产能源效率的可能性也要低 4.6 个百分点。事实证明,对防洪措施的信任是一个调节变量。特别是,与对防洪信任度低的高风险业主相比,信任度高的高风险业主考虑提高能源效率的可能性更低。我们讨论了气候风险交流的意义。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment and prediction of meteorological drought using machine learning algorithms and climate data 利用机器学习算法和气候数据评估和预测气象干旱
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100630
Khalid En-Nagre , Mourad Aqnouy , Ayoub Ouarka , Syed Ali Asad Naqvi , Ismail Bouizrou , Jamal Eddine Stitou El Messari , Aqil Tariq , Walid Soufan , Wenzhao Li , Hesham El-Askary

Monitoring drought in semi-arid regions due to climate change is of paramount importance. This study, conducted in Morocco’s Upper Drâa Basin (UDB), analyzed data spanning from 1980 to 2019, focusing on the calculation of drought indices, specifically the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at multiple timescales (1, 3, 9, 12 months). Trends were assessed using statistical methods such as the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s Slope estimator. Four significant machine learning (ML) algorithms, including Random Forest, Voting Regressor, AdaBoost Regressor, and K-Nearest Neighbors Regressor, were evaluated to predict the SPEI values for both three and 12-month periods. The algorithms’ performance was measured using statistical indices. The study revealed that drought distribution within the UDB is not uniform, with a discernible decreasing trend in SPEI values. Notably, the four ML algorithms effectively predicted SPEI values for the specified periods. Random Forest, Voting Regressor, and AdaBoost demonstrated the highest Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values, ranging from 0.74 to 0.93. In contrast, the K-Nearest Neighbors algorithm produced values within the range of 0.44 to 0.84. These research findings have the potential to provide valuable insights for water resource management experts and policymakers. However, it is imperative to enhance data collection methodologies and expand the distribution of measurement sites to improve data representativeness and reduce errors associated with local variations.

监测气候变化导致的半干旱地区干旱至关重要。本研究在摩洛哥上德拉盆地(UDB)进行,分析了 1980 年至 2019 年的数据,重点是计算干旱指数,特别是多个时间尺度(1、3、9、12 个月)的标准化降水指数(SPI)和标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)。使用 Mann-Kendall 检验和 Sen's Slope 估计器等统计方法对趋势进行了评估。评估了四种重要的机器学习(ML)算法,包括随机森林算法、投票回归算法、AdaBoost 回归算法和 K-Nearest Neighbors 回归算法,以预测 3 个月和 12 个月期间的 SPEI 值。这些算法的性能使用统计指数进行衡量。研究结果表明,UDB 内的干旱分布并不均匀,SPEI 值呈明显的下降趋势。值得注意的是,四种 ML 算法都能有效预测特定时期的 SPEI 值。随机森林算法、投票回归算法和 AdaBoost 算法的纳什-萨特克利夫效率(NSE)值最高,从 0.74 到 0.93 不等。相比之下,K-近邻算法的效率值在 0.44 到 0.84 之间。这些研究成果有可能为水资源管理专家和政策制定者提供有价值的见解。不过,当务之急是改进数据收集方法,扩大测量点的分布范围,以提高数据的代表性,减少与地方差异相关的误差。
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引用次数: 0
Fueling the fires – An exploration of the drivers and the scope for management of European wildfire risk under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 火上浇油--探讨共同社会经济路径下欧洲野火风险的驱动因素和管理范围
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100638
Eva Preinfalk , John Handmer

As socio-natural phenomena, wildfires are exacerbated by climate change and socioeconomic dynamics. However, the role of socioeconomic uncertainty in shaping future wildfire risk and management remains largely neglected. Building on the notion that risk emerges at the intersection of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, we conduct an integrative literature review to identify the most significant socioeconomic drivers of wildfire risk in the European geographical and institutional context and bring this together with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) perspectives on plausible socioeconomic dynamics. To our knowledge, this is the first study to bridge the gap between wildfire research and socioeconomic scenarios to establish a conceptual understanding of future wildfire risk. The resulting wildfire risk scenario space has two main applications: (i) it acts as a qualitative navigator for factoring socioeconomic uncertainty in model-based wildfire risk assessments, and (ii) it sets the boundary conditions for evaluating the feasibility of management strategies. Sustainable land use practices and profitable agricultural value chains can reduce future wildfire risk (e.g. SSP1), whereas land degradation (e.g. SSP4), and socioeconomic disparities (e.g. SSP3) may increase it. As a result, challenges to future wildfire risk management differ significantly across scenarios, leading to paradoxical situations. In scenarios where vulnerability reduction has significant potential to lower risk, socioeconomic challenges reduce the feasibility of implementing the necessary measures to achieve risk reduction. Similar dilemmas may arise in the context of hazard and exposure. By considering multiple plausible futures, this paper emphasizes the importance of accounting for socioeconomic dynamics in shaping wildfire risk and keeping the design of risk management strategies open and flexible in the face of changing circumstances.

作为一种社会自然现象,野火因气候变化和社会经济动态而加剧。然而,社会经济的不确定性在影响未来野火风险和管理方面的作用在很大程度上仍被忽视。基于风险出现在危险、暴露和脆弱性的交叉点这一概念,我们进行了一次综合文献回顾,以确定欧洲地理和制度背景下野火风险最重要的社会经济驱动因素,并将其与 "共享社会经济路径"(SSP)观点结合在一起,探讨合理的社会经济动态。据我们所知,这是第一项弥合野火研究与社会经济情景之间差距的研究,旨在建立对未来野火风险的概念性理解。由此产生的野火风险情景空间有两大用途:(i) 作为定性导航器,在基于模型的野火风险评估中考虑社会经济的不确定性;(ii) 为评估管理策略的可行性设定边界条件。可持续的土地利用方式和有利可图的农业价值链可降低未来的野火风险(如 SSP1),而土地退化(如 SSP4)和社会经济差异(如 SSP3)则可能增加野火风险。因此,未来野火风险管理所面临的挑战在不同的情景下会有很大的不同,从而导致矛盾的局面。在降低脆弱性具有降低风险的巨大潜力的情景中,社会经济挑战降低了实施必要措施以实现降低风险的可行性。在危险和风险暴露的情况下,也会出现类似的困境。通过考虑多种似是而非的未来,本文强调了考虑社会经济动态对野火风险影响的重要性,以及在面对不断变化的环境时保持风险管理战略设计的开放性和灵活性的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Weather variability and malnutrition among farming households in Ethiopia 天气变化与埃塞俄比亚农户的营养不良问题
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100640
Musa Hasen Ahmed

Unlike existing studies that examined the effects of weather variability by relying on the current weather conditions disregarding the long-term influence of historical weather patterns, we jointly estimate the effects of current and past weather variability on rural households’ nutritional status. Using three waves of nationally representative panel data from rural Ethiopia, we show that the nutritional status of farming households, measured by daily intakes of micro-and macronutrients, is more sensitive to past weather variability than the current weather condition. We also find that adverse weather history can trigger responses that are linked to the deterioration of nutritional status.

现有的研究只关注当前的天气状况,而忽视了历史天气模式的长期影响,与此不同,我们联合估算了当前和过去的天气变化对农村家庭营养状况的影响。通过使用埃塞俄比亚农村地区具有全国代表性的三波面板数据,我们发现,以每日微量和宏量营养素摄入量衡量的农户营养状况对过去天气变化的敏感度要高于当前天气状况。我们还发现,不利的天气历史会引发与营养状况恶化相关的反应。
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引用次数: 0
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Climate Risk Management
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