Climate Risk Management最新文献

From Silos to Synergy: Conceptualizing an integrated infrastructure design for climate resilience in Rotterdam

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100691

Angela Ordóñez Llancce , Yirang Lim , Theresa Audrey O. Esteban , Joep van Leeuwen , Johan Ninan

In recent years, municipalities have been recognised for their crucial role in protecting cities from climate change impacts by adopting mitigative and adaptive strategies to enhance climate resilience. However, anchoring these strategies demands multiple interventions, which are often hindered by the current siloed organization of departments and disciplines. An integrated infrastructure design approach (IIDA) can co-create a process that converges sectors, disciplines, and actors’ interests to tackle this challenge. To this end, this research explores how municipalities can effectively implement IIDA to enhance climate-resilient infrastructures. The city of Rotterdam served as a case study involving a thematic analysis of 21 interviews with internal actors of the municipality. This study identified 19 key factors influencing a municipality’s effectiveness in using an integrated design approach to enhance climate resilience. These influential factors belong to six different dimensions: Human Capacity, Organisational Culture, Governance, Communication, Project Development Process and Finance. The findings suggest that it is essential that actors within municipalities have soft skills such as proactivity and open-mindedness for collaboration. Furthermore, it is necessary to foster an innovative and collaborative culture to enable the development of pilot projects. This, in turn, helps update standards and scale up implementation by aligning integration at the three management levels: strategic, program, and project. Based on the findings, we recommend establishing a multi-dimensional baseline, setting up a communication strategy and tools, build human and institutional capacity through pilots and living labs. This can help municipalities implement an integrated infrastructure design in their organisation, offering a promising future in designing climate-resilient infrastructures.

{"title":"From Silos to Synergy: Conceptualizing an integrated infrastructure design for climate resilience in Rotterdam","authors":"Angela Ordóñez Llancce , Yirang Lim , Theresa Audrey O. Esteban , Joep van Leeuwen , Johan Ninan","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100691","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100691","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, municipalities have been recognised for their crucial role in protecting cities from climate change impacts by adopting mitigative and adaptive strategies to enhance climate resilience. However, anchoring these strategies demands multiple interventions, which are often hindered by the current siloed organization of departments and disciplines. An integrated infrastructure design approach (IIDA) can co-create a process that converges sectors, disciplines, and actors’ interests to tackle this challenge. To this end, this research explores how municipalities can effectively implement IIDA to enhance climate-resilient infrastructures. The city of Rotterdam served as a case study involving a thematic analysis of 21 interviews with internal actors of the municipality. This study identified 19 key factors influencing a municipality’s effectiveness in using an integrated design approach to enhance climate resilience. These influential factors belong to six different dimensions: Human Capacity, Organisational Culture, Governance, Communication, Project Development Process and Finance. The findings suggest that it is essential that actors within municipalities have soft skills such as proactivity and open-mindedness for collaboration. Furthermore, it is necessary to foster an innovative and collaborative culture to enable the development of pilot projects. This, in turn, helps update standards and scale up implementation by aligning integration at the three management levels: strategic, program, and project. Based on the findings, we recommend establishing a multi-dimensional baseline, setting up a communication strategy and tools, build human and institutional capacity through pilots and living labs. This can help municipalities implement an integrated infrastructure design in their organisation, offering a promising future in designing climate-resilient infrastructures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100691"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Leveraging climate resilience capacities by (un)learning from transdisciplinary research projects

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100675

Simona Pedde , Reginald Grendelman , Lydia Cumiskey , Denise McCullagh , Joanne Vinke-de Kruijf , Katharina Hölscher

Climate adaptation in Europe faces a significant implementation gap: while high-level policies set ambitious resilience goals, local knowledge integration and policy uptake remain slow due to entrenched institutional routines. Reflecting on lessons from three transdisciplinary European projects, this article aims to provide a fresh perspective on how climate resilience can be effectively enhanced through projects that facilitate institutional (un)learning. We tailor a climate resilience capacities framework to diagnose stewarding, unlocking, transforming and orchestrating capacities that enable coordinated shifts from risk-averse to risk-embracing adaptation. These capacities emerge from, and generate, processes that actively dismantle obsolete learnings while fostering novel, resilience-oriented behaviors and routines. Key examples include climate resilience pathways and the empowerment of champions and institutional entrepreneurs, an integrated approach and neutral facilitation and the formation of networks such as Communities of Practice and Real-World Labs. We propose that, while already successful ex-post, embedding this thinking at the conceptualization phase can further accelerate the transition to adaptive societies capable of embracing uncertainty and enhancing climate resilience.

{"title":"Leveraging climate resilience capacities by (un)learning from transdisciplinary research projects","authors":"Simona Pedde , Reginald Grendelman , Lydia Cumiskey , Denise McCullagh , Joanne Vinke-de Kruijf , Katharina Hölscher","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100675","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100675","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate adaptation in Europe faces a significant implementation gap: while high-level policies set ambitious resilience goals, local knowledge integration and policy uptake remain slow due to entrenched institutional routines. Reflecting on lessons from three transdisciplinary European projects, this article aims to provide a fresh perspective on how climate resilience can be effectively enhanced through projects that facilitate institutional (un)learning. We tailor a climate resilience capacities framework to diagnose stewarding, unlocking, transforming and orchestrating capacities that enable coordinated shifts from risk-averse to risk-embracing adaptation. These capacities emerge from, and generate, processes that actively dismantle obsolete learnings while fostering novel, resilience-oriented behaviors and routines. Key examples include climate resilience pathways and the empowerment of champions and institutional entrepreneurs, an integrated approach and neutral facilitation and the formation of networks such as Communities of Practice and Real-World Labs. We propose that, while already successful ex-post, embedding this thinking at the conceptualization phase can further accelerate the transition to adaptive societies capable of embracing uncertainty and enhancing climate resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100675"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Adapting Latin American and Caribbean airports to a changing climate: Impacts, challenges and solutions

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100684

Rachel Burbidge , Christopher Paling , Rachel M. Dunk

In the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region climate change effects such as higher temperatures, sea level rise and stronger storms are already threatening critical airport infrastructure and operations, with this exposure increasing as climate change accelerates. Given the social and economic criticality of airports to the region, it is vital that they adapt and build resilience to the resulting impacts. This paper presents the first evaluation of the climate risk assessment and adaptation status of airports in the LAC region. Drawing on a survey of airport professionals from 35 LAC airports and airport groups (representing a total of 54 airports) it finds that although 80% are already experiencing climate change effects, just 14% have carried out a climate change risk assessment to establish what impacts they may face and only 3% (one airport) have developed a climate adaptation plan. This is a significant exposure-adaptation gap which it is essential to address. This urgently requires (i) enhanced awareness raising of climate effects and impacts; (ii) increased provision of data and guidance; and (iii) development and promotion of capacity building mechanisms such as risk assessment tools and training. A crucial role is identified for national governments and sector bodies to continue and augment support for airports in the region to adapt. While this study focuses on the LAC region, the recommendations are likewise applicable for supporting adaptation action by airports in other regions.

{"title":"Adapting Latin American and Caribbean airports to a changing climate: Impacts, challenges and solutions","authors":"Rachel Burbidge , Christopher Paling , Rachel M. Dunk","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100684","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100684","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region climate change effects such as higher temperatures, sea level rise and stronger storms are already threatening critical airport infrastructure and operations, with this exposure increasing as climate change accelerates. Given the social and economic criticality of airports to the region, it is vital that they adapt and build resilience to the resulting impacts. This paper presents the first evaluation of the climate risk assessment and adaptation status of airports in the LAC region. Drawing on a survey of airport professionals from 35 LAC airports and airport groups (representing a total of 54 airports) it finds that although 80% are already experiencing climate change effects, just 14% have carried out a climate change risk assessment to establish what impacts they may face and only 3% (one airport) have developed a climate adaptation plan. This is a significant exposure-adaptation gap which it is essential to address. This urgently requires (i) enhanced awareness raising of climate effects and impacts; (ii) increased provision of data and guidance; and (iii) development and promotion of capacity building mechanisms such as risk assessment tools and training. A crucial role is identified for national governments and sector bodies to continue and augment support for airports in the region to adapt. While this study focuses on the LAC region, the recommendations are likewise applicable for supporting adaptation action by airports in other regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100684"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A framework for addressing the interconnectedness of early warning to action and finance to strengthen multiscale institutional responses to climate shocks and disasters

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100689

Emmanuel M.N.A.N. Attoh, Giriraj Amarnath

Early warning systems (EWS) inform decision making and planning in response to climate shocks and catastrophic disasters. However, the current disaster response mechanism falls short due to the fragmented warning, action, and finance systems, coupled with inadequate institutional collaboration, coordination and inclusive engagement for effective anticipatory action. This study addresses this challenge by introducing an Early Warning, Action and Finance (AWARE) platform to promote anticipatory action through multistakeholder engagement. Data from literature reviews, expert surveys, and stakeholder workshops in Senegal, Zambia and Sri Lanka helped identify the platform’s needs and priorities. The study draws upon theories of technological frames, interpretative flexibility, boundary objects, social learning, collaborative governance and adaptive co-management to conceptualize a framework for AWARE. Results demonstrate the potential of AWARE as a boundary object that fosters social engagement, active involvement, open communication, collaboration, and shared commitment to safeguarding lives and livelihoods. Analysis of technological frames and interpretative flexibility underscores the role of social learning in shaping the design and user features that promote multiscale institutional responses to disasters. AWARE aligns with the priorities of the Sendai Framework and emphasizes system thinking, co-production of knowledge, and the need for context-specific solutions to enhance anticipatory action. Recognizing the limitations of one-size-fits-all EWS, the AWARE framework acknowledges contextual factors as barriers to implementation. The study underscores the importance of integrated EWS and collaborative efforts to overcome implementation barriers and improve anticipatory action outcomes.

{"title":"A framework for addressing the interconnectedness of early warning to action and finance to strengthen multiscale institutional responses to climate shocks and disasters","authors":"Emmanuel M.N.A.N. Attoh, Giriraj Amarnath","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100689","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100689","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Early warning systems (EWS) inform decision making and planning in response to climate shocks and catastrophic disasters. However, the current disaster response mechanism falls short due to the fragmented warning, action, and finance systems, coupled with inadequate institutional collaboration, coordination and inclusive engagement for effective anticipatory action. This study addresses this challenge by introducing an Early Warning, Action and Finance (AWARE) platform to promote anticipatory action through multistakeholder engagement. Data from literature reviews, expert surveys, and stakeholder workshops in Senegal, Zambia and Sri Lanka helped identify the platform’s needs and priorities. The study draws upon theories of technological frames, interpretative flexibility, boundary objects, social learning, collaborative governance and adaptive co-management to conceptualize a framework for AWARE. Results demonstrate the potential of AWARE as a boundary object that fosters social engagement, active involvement, open communication, collaboration, and shared commitment to safeguarding lives and livelihoods. Analysis of technological frames and interpretative flexibility underscores the role of social learning in shaping the design and user features that promote multiscale institutional responses to disasters. AWARE aligns with the priorities of the Sendai Framework and emphasizes system thinking, co-production of knowledge, and the need for context-specific solutions to enhance anticipatory action. Recognizing the limitations of one-size-fits-all EWS, the AWARE framework acknowledges contextual factors as barriers to implementation. The study underscores the importance of integrated EWS and collaborative efforts to overcome implementation barriers and improve anticipatory action outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100689"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evaluating institutional climate finance barriers in selected SADC countries

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100694

Kamleshan Pillay , Shanice Mohanlal , Blaise Dobson , Bhim Adhikari

Access to climate finance continues to inhibit the transition of southern African economies to a low-carbon, climate-resilient future. This is compounded by the region’s exposure to climate risks alongside several other factors, such as increasing population growth, high levels of inequality and unemployment, and limited fiscal resources. There remains only a high level of understanding of climate finance barriers across the region. The research provides an in-depth understanding of the institutional barriers that limit climate finance actors in selected southern African countries from mobilising greater climate finance flows and the drivers responsible for these barriers. At an operational level, institutions face significant challenges in developing vital track records that meet the necessary fiduciary requirements of climate finance sources. This challenge is exacerbated by the bureaucracy related to project approvals, stakeholder coordination (both internal and external) and institutional capacity and awareness. One of the primary barriers to the mobilisation of and access to climate finance for mitigation and adaptation in the region is the lack of clear policies and regulatory and legal frameworks or, where policies do exist, a lack of policy enforcement. The barriers presented in this research can be addressed by robust and decisive action by climate finance actors and the presence of an enabling environment that prioritises climate action. However, climate finance mobilisation will likely continue to lag if political will across the region on climate change is not increased in the short term.

{"title":"Evaluating institutional climate finance barriers in selected SADC countries","authors":"Kamleshan Pillay , Shanice Mohanlal , Blaise Dobson , Bhim Adhikari","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100694","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100694","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Access to climate finance continues to inhibit the transition of southern African economies to a low-carbon, climate-resilient future. This is compounded by the region’s exposure to climate risks alongside several other factors, such as increasing population growth, high levels of inequality and unemployment, and limited fiscal resources. There remains only a high level of understanding of climate finance barriers across the region. The research provides an in-depth understanding of the institutional barriers that limit climate finance actors in selected southern African countries from mobilising greater climate finance flows and the drivers responsible for these barriers. At an operational level, institutions face significant challenges in developing vital track records that meet the necessary fiduciary requirements of climate finance sources. This challenge is exacerbated by the bureaucracy related to project approvals, stakeholder coordination (both internal and external) and institutional capacity and awareness. One of the primary barriers to the mobilisation of and access to climate finance for mitigation and adaptation in the region is the lack of clear policies and regulatory and legal frameworks or, where policies do exist, a lack of policy enforcement. The barriers presented in this research can be addressed by robust and decisive action by climate finance actors and the presence of an enabling environment that prioritises climate action. However, climate finance mobilisation will likely continue to lag if political will across the region on climate change is not increased in the short term.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100694"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143394475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The role of social capital in strengthening community resilience against floods: A case study of Mumbai, India

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100685

Jaideep Visave , Daniel P. Aldrich

This study examines the role of social capital in shaping flood resilience within Mumbai’s Sahakar Nagar, a coastal community vulnerable to flooding. Through surveys of 100 residents, we find a positive correlation between trust in community members and the adoption of resilience strategies (r = 0.219, p < 0.05). Trust in neighbors emerges as a key predictor of proactive coping (β = 1.23, p < 0.001), seeking social support (β = 1.32, p < 0.001), and positive reappraisal (β = 1.45, p < 0.001). K-means clustering reveals three distinct community groups (“High Trust Proactive”, “Moderate Trust Networkers”, and “Low Trust Individualists”) exhibiting varying levels of social capital and resilience strategies, reflecting the community’s diverse socioeconomic context, with bimodal income peaks at INR 40,000 and INR 100,000. Social network analysis identifies 12 interconnected sub-communities, highlighting the importance of information hubs within the network. Our findings underscore the critical role of trust in fostering community resilience, suggesting that interventions aimed at building and strengthening trust can enhance flood preparedness and response in urban coastal communities.

{"title":"The role of social capital in strengthening community resilience against floods: A case study of Mumbai, India","authors":"Jaideep Visave , Daniel P. Aldrich","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100685","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100685","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the role of social capital in shaping flood resilience within Mumbai’s Sahakar Nagar, a coastal community vulnerable to flooding. Through surveys of 100 residents, we find a positive correlation between trust in community members and the adoption of resilience strategies (r = 0.219, p < 0.05). Trust in neighbors emerges as a key predictor of proactive coping (β = 1.23, p < 0.001), seeking social support (β = 1.32, p < 0.001), and positive reappraisal (β = 1.45, p < 0.001). K-means clustering reveals three distinct community groups (“High Trust Proactive”, “Moderate Trust Networkers”, and “Low Trust Individualists”) exhibiting varying levels of social capital and resilience strategies, reflecting the community’s diverse socioeconomic context, with bimodal income peaks at INR 40,000 and INR 100,000. Social network analysis identifies 12 interconnected sub-communities, highlighting the importance of information hubs within the network. Our findings underscore the critical role of trust in fostering community resilience, suggesting that interventions aimed at building and strengthening trust can enhance flood preparedness and response in urban coastal communities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100685"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How beneficial are seasonal climate forecasts for climate risk management? An appraisal for crop production in Tanzania

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100686

Jacob Emanuel Joseph , K.P.C Rao , Elirehema Swai , Anthony M. Whitbread , Reimund P. Rötter

Understanding growing period conditions is crucial for effective climate risk management strategies. Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) are key in predicting these conditions and guiding risk management in agriculture. However, low SCF adoption rates among smallholder farmers are due to factors like uncertainty and lack of understanding. In this study, we evaluated the benefits of SCF in predicting growing season conditions, and crop performance, and developing climate risk management strategies in Kongwa district, Tanzania. We used sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) from the Indian and Pacific Ocean regions to predict seasonal rainfall onset dates using the k-nearest neighbor model. Contrary to traditional approaches, the study established the use of rainfall onset dates as the criterion for predicting and describing growing period conditions. We then evaluated forecast skills and the profitability of using SCF in crop management with the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) coupled with a simple bio-economic model. Our findings show that SSTa significantly influences rainfall variability and accurately predicts rainfall onset dates. Onset dates proved more effective than traditional methods in depicting key growing period characteristics, including rainfall variability and distribution. Including SCF in climate risk management proved beneficial for maize and sorghum production both agronomically and economically. Not using SCF posed a higher risk to crop production, with an 80% probability of yield losses, especially in late-onset seasons. We conclude that while SCF has potential benefits, improvements are needed in its generation and dissemination. Enhancing the network of extension agents could facilitate better understanding and adoption by smallholder farmers.

{"title":"How beneficial are seasonal climate forecasts for climate risk management? An appraisal for crop production in Tanzania","authors":"Jacob Emanuel Joseph , K.P.C Rao , Elirehema Swai , Anthony M. Whitbread , Reimund P. Rötter","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100686","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100686","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding growing period conditions is crucial for effective climate risk management strategies. Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) are key in predicting these conditions and guiding risk management in agriculture. However, low SCF adoption rates among smallholder farmers are due to factors like uncertainty and lack of understanding. In this study, we evaluated the benefits of SCF in predicting growing season conditions, and crop performance, and developing climate risk management strategies in Kongwa district, Tanzania. We used sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) from the Indian and Pacific Ocean regions to predict seasonal rainfall onset dates using the k-nearest neighbor model. Contrary to traditional approaches, the study established the use of rainfall onset dates as the criterion for predicting and describing growing period conditions. We then evaluated forecast skills and the profitability of using SCF in crop management with the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) coupled with a simple bio-economic model. Our findings show that SSTa significantly influences rainfall variability and accurately predicts rainfall onset dates. Onset dates proved more effective than traditional methods in depicting key growing period characteristics, including rainfall variability and distribution. Including SCF in climate risk management proved beneficial for maize and sorghum production both agronomically and economically. Not using SCF posed a higher risk to crop production, with an 80% probability of yield losses, especially in late-onset seasons. We conclude that while SCF has potential benefits, improvements are needed in its generation and dissemination. Enhancing the network of extension agents could facilitate better understanding and adoption by smallholder farmers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100686"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The impact of climate change on household dietary diversity in Afghanistan

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100687

Jamshid Yolchi, Huaiyu Wang

Climate change adaptation policies and research have traditionally focused on dietary quantity, neglecting dietary quality, particularly in developing countries like Afghanistan. This study aims to identify how climate change affects household dietary diversity and whether the impacts are consistent across different food groups. To examine the impact of climate change on dietary diversity in Afghanistan, a climate change proxy variable (temperature) was created at the district level by calculating the difference from its long-term mean. Meanwhile, the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) was obtained from three rounds of household survey data conducted between 2011 and 2017, which included information from 60,099 households. Negative binomial regression analysis reveals a positive association between climate change and HDDS. That is, higher temperatures would lead to the higher availability of diverse diets in Afghanistan. Interestingly, climate change appears to affect food groups heterogeneously. While staple food consumption frequency remains unaffected, non-staple food consumption increases with higher temperatures. The results remain consistent after incorporating precipitation and two lagged versions of temperature and precipitation into the model. Therefore, the climate adaptation policies of the government of Afghanistan should consider different policy implications for staple and non-staple foods. These findings have policy implications for achieving food security and climate change-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as SDG 2 (zero hunger) and SDG 13 (climate action).

{"title":"The impact of climate change on household dietary diversity in Afghanistan","authors":"Jamshid Yolchi, Huaiyu Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100687","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100687","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change adaptation policies and research have traditionally focused on dietary quantity, neglecting dietary quality, particularly in developing countries like Afghanistan. This study aims to identify how climate change affects household dietary diversity and whether the impacts are consistent across different food groups. To examine the impact of climate change on dietary diversity in Afghanistan, a climate change proxy variable (temperature) was created at the district level by calculating the difference from its long-term mean. Meanwhile, the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) was obtained from three rounds of household survey data conducted between 2011 and 2017, which included information from 60,099 households. Negative binomial regression analysis reveals a positive association between climate change and HDDS. That is, higher temperatures would lead to the higher availability of diverse diets in Afghanistan. Interestingly, climate change appears to affect food groups heterogeneously. While staple food consumption frequency remains unaffected, non-staple food consumption increases with higher temperatures. The results remain consistent after incorporating precipitation and two lagged versions of temperature and precipitation into the model. Therefore, the climate adaptation policies of the government of Afghanistan should consider different policy implications for staple and non-staple foods. These findings have policy implications for achieving food security and climate change-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as SDG 2 (zero hunger) and SDG 13 (climate action).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100687"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Increased risk for damages from the dry-rot fungus Serpula lacrymans on buildings in a changing climate

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100695

Mikael Martinsson , Itai Danielski

Weather-based damages in housing insurance correspond to 23 % of all insurance claims in Sweden and include damages from fungi. Some fungi could cause health risks to the tenants, while others can cause rapid structural failure for the building itself, like the dry-rot fungus Serpula lacrymans.

The study aims to analyse a possible connection between the increased rate of insurance claims related to S. lacrymans fungi and climate change. This study uses historical data of 2446 damaged properties from insurance companies and current and future climate data. In addition, eight geographical areas within Sweden with 567 damaged properties were analysed in relation to changes in outdoor temperature over a decade. Finally, a full onsite inspection of 20 infected properties by S. lacrymans fungi was conducted to evaluate common conditions for fungi infections.

The results of this study showed that the S. lacrymans fungus is expected to spread to the northern parts of Sweden even in areas where it could not exist before, while the rate of infected buildings in the southern part of Sweden might decline but not drop to zero. Wooden buildings older constructed before 1980 with chimneys and self-ventilation are at higher risk of infection. Economic implications are significant, with high repair costs rendering some buildings economically unviable, particularly in rural areas. Insurance reimbursement is typically limited to market value loss, indicating location, design, and maintenance status as crucial factors. The results may raise a concern for insurance companies and property owners, especially related to locations in the sparse parts of North of Sweden.

{"title":"Increased risk for damages from the dry-rot fungus Serpula lacrymans on buildings in a changing climate","authors":"Mikael Martinsson , Itai Danielski","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100695","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100695","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Weather-based damages in housing insurance correspond to 23 % of all insurance claims in Sweden and include damages from fungi. Some fungi could cause health risks to the tenants, while others can cause rapid structural failure for the building itself, like the dry-rot fungus <em>Serpula lacrymans</em>.</div><div>The study aims to analyse a possible connection between the increased rate of insurance claims related to <em>S. lacrymans</em> fungi and climate change. This study uses historical data of 2446 damaged properties from insurance companies and current and future climate data. In addition, eight geographical areas within Sweden with 567 damaged properties were analysed in relation to changes in outdoor temperature over a decade. Finally, a full onsite inspection of 20 infected properties by <em>S. lacrymans</em> fungi was conducted to evaluate common conditions for fungi infections.</div><div>The results of this study showed that the <em>S. lacrymans</em> fungus is expected to spread to the northern parts of Sweden even in areas where it could not exist before, while the rate of infected buildings in the southern part of Sweden might decline but not drop to zero. Wooden buildings older constructed before 1980 with chimneys and self-ventilation are at higher risk of infection. Economic implications are significant, with high repair costs rendering some buildings economically unviable, particularly in rural areas. Insurance reimbursement is typically limited to market value loss, indicating location, design, and maintenance status as crucial factors. The results may raise a concern for insurance companies and property owners, especially related to locations in the sparse parts of North of Sweden.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100695"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143437524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing vulnerability and climate risk to agriculture for developing resilient farming strategies in the Ganges Delta

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100690

Uttam Kumar Mandal , Fazlul Karim , Yingying Yu , Amit Ghosh , Taslima Zahan , Sonali Mallick , Mohammad Kamruzzaman , Priya Lal Chandra Paul , Mohammed Mainuddin

The Ganges Delta supports a unique coastal ecosystem that is highly susceptible to global climate change. This paper presents results from a study on climate change impacts on coastal agriculture in the deltaic regions of Bangladesh and India. The study examined how risk emerges from the interaction of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Climate hazards for the 89 administrative units (upazila in Bangladesh and block in India) were assessed using future climate data from the IPCC’s 6th assessment report. Hazard levels were assessed by integrating the impacts of four temperature extremes and five rainfall extremes critical to crop growth. Through an extensive literature review, 18 biophysical and socio-economic variables were identified as critical and policy-relevant, including three related to exposure and 15 to vulnerability. All indicators were normalized to a dimensionless scale ranging from 0 to 1 for use in vulnerability and risk assessments. Three upazilas in Bangladesh were classified as being under very high climate hazard. The exposure score was found to be relatively higher along Indian coast compared to Bangladesh coast. Among the 89 administrative units analyzed, five upazilas in Bangladesh and two blocks in India were identified under very high vulnerability index, covering 18.6% the area and 8.13% of the total population. When combining vulnerability and climate hazard, three upazilas in Bangladesh and one block in India were identified under very high risk to agriculture. These findings provide a practical framework for developing sustainable agricultural strategies and addressing climate risks in the Ganges Delta and other similar coastal ecosystems worldwide.

{"title":"Assessing vulnerability and climate risk to agriculture for developing resilient farming strategies in the Ganges Delta","authors":"Uttam Kumar Mandal , Fazlul Karim , Yingying Yu , Amit Ghosh , Taslima Zahan , Sonali Mallick , Mohammad Kamruzzaman , Priya Lal Chandra Paul , Mohammed Mainuddin","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100690","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100690","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Ganges Delta supports a unique coastal ecosystem that is highly susceptible to global climate change. This paper presents results from a study on climate change impacts on coastal agriculture in the deltaic regions of Bangladesh and India. The study examined how risk emerges from the interaction of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Climate hazards for the 89 administrative units (upazila in Bangladesh and block in India) were assessed using future climate data from the IPCC’s 6th assessment report. Hazard levels were assessed by integrating the impacts of four temperature extremes and five rainfall extremes critical to crop growth. Through an extensive literature review, 18 biophysical and socio-economic variables were identified as critical and policy-relevant, including three related to exposure and 15 to vulnerability. All indicators were normalized to a dimensionless scale ranging from 0 to 1 for use in vulnerability and risk assessments. Three upazilas in Bangladesh were classified as being under very high climate hazard. The exposure score was found to be relatively higher along Indian coast compared to Bangladesh coast. Among the 89 administrative units analyzed, five upazilas in Bangladesh and two blocks in India were identified under very high vulnerability index, covering 18.6% the area and 8.13% of the total population. When combining vulnerability and climate hazard, three upazilas in Bangladesh and one block in India were identified under very high risk to agriculture. These findings provide a practical framework for developing sustainable agricultural strategies and addressing climate risks in the Ganges Delta and other similar coastal ecosystems worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100690"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0