The association between the scarlet fever and meteorological factors, air pollutants and their interactions in children in northwest China

Abstract

Scarlet fever (SF) is an acute respiratory transmitted disease that primarily affects children. The influence of meteorological factors and air pollutants on SF in children has been proved, but the relevant evidence in Northwest China is still lacking. Based on the weekly reported cases of SF in children in Lanzhou, northwest China, from 2014 to 2018, we used geographical detectors, distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM), and bivariate response models to explore the influence of meteorological factors and air pollutants with SF. It was found that ozone (O₃), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), temperature, pressure, water vapor pressure and wind speed were significantly correlated with SF based on geographical detectors. With the median as reference, the influence of high temperature, low pressure and high pressure on SF has a risk effect (relative risk (RR) > 1), and under extreme conditions, the dangerous effect was still significant. High O₃ had the strongest effect at a 6-week delay, with an RR of 5.43 (95%CI: 1.74,16.96). The risk effect of high SO₂ was strongest in the week of exposure, and the maximum risk effect was 1.37 (95%CI: 1.08,1.73). The interactions showed synergistic effects between high temperatures and O₃, high pressure and high SO₂, high nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and high particulate matter with diameter of less than 10 μm (PM₁₀), respectively. In conclusion, high temperature, pressure, high O₃ and SO₂ were the most important factors affecting the occurrence of SF in children, which will provide theoretical support for follow-up research and disease prevention policy formulation.