Can Thanksgiving Destinations Predict Climate Migration Patterns?

Abstract

This research explores the relationship between climate-induced migration destination choice and social ties in the US, using anonymized smartphone data from SafeGraph. It shows that Thanksgiving travel patterns correlate with relocations following Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Findings reveal a statistically significant positive correlation, suggesting that states with a greater change in visitors during Thanksgiving week compared to regular week are likelier destinations for post-disaster relocation, emphasizing social ties’ crucial role in such decisions. This research highlights the need for urban planning and emergency management to consider the spatial distribution of social networks, which could inform evacuation strategies and disaster recovery policies.