Advancing Precision Prognostication in Neuro-Oncology: Machine Learning Models for Data-Driven Personalized Survival Predictions in IDH-Wildtype Glioblastoma

Abstract

Glioblastoma (GBM) remains associated with a dismal prognosis despite standard therapies. While population-level survival statistics are established, generating individualized prognosis remains challenging. We aim to develop machine learning (ML) models that generate personalized survival predictions for GBM patients to enhance prognostication. Adult patients with histologically confirmed IDH-wildtype GBM from the National Cancer Database (NCDB) were analyzed. ML models were developed with TabPFN, TabNet, XGBoost, LightGBM, and Random Forest algorithms to predict mortality at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months post-diagnosis. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were employed to enhance the interpretability of the models. Models were primarily evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) values, and the top-performing models indicated by the highest AUROCs for each outcome were deployed in a web application that was created for individualized predictions. A total of 7,537 patients were retrieved from the NCDB. Performance evaluation revealed the top-performing models for each outcome were built using the TabPFN algorithm. The TabPFN models yielded mean AUROCs of 0.836, 0.78, 0.732, and 0.724 in predicting 6-, 12-, 18-, and 24-month mortality, respectively. This study establishes ML models tailored to individual patients to enhance GBM prognostication. Future work should focus on external validation and dynamic updating as new data emerge.