Radiomic nomogram for predicting high-risk cytogenetic status in multiple myeloma based on fat-suppressed T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging

Abstract

Rationale and Objectives

Radiomics has demonstrated potential in predicting the cytogenetic status of multiple myeloma (MM). However, the role of single-sequence radiomic nomograms in predicting the high-risk cytogenetic (HRC) status of MM remains underexplored. This study aims to develop and validate radiomic nomograms based on fat-suppressed T2-weighted images (T2WI-FS) for predicting MM’s HRC status, facilitating pre-treatment decision-making and prognostic assessment.

Materials and methods

A cohort of 159 MM patients was included, comprising 71 HRC and 88 non-HRC cases. Regions of interest within the most significant tumor lesions on T2WI-FS images were manually delineated, yielding 1688 features. Fourteen radiomic features were selected using 10-fold cross-validation, employing methods such as variance thresholds, Student’s t-test, redundancy analysis, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Logistic regression was utilized to develop three prediction models: a clinical model (model 1), a T2WI-FS radiomic model (model 2), and a combined clinical-radiomic model (model 3). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves evaluated and compared the diagnostic performance of these models. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and log-rank tests assessed the prognostic value of the radiomic nomograms.

Results

Models 2 and 3 demonstrated significantly greater diagnostic efficacy compared to model 1 (p < 0.05). The areas under the ROC curve for models 1, 2, and 3 were as follows: training set—0.650, 0.832, and 0.846; validation set—0.702, 0.730, and 0.757, respectively. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis indicated comparable prognostic values between the radiomic nomogram and MM cytogenetic status, with log-rank test results (p < 0.05) and concordance indices of 0.651 and 0.659, respectively; z-score test results were not statistically significant (p = 0.153). Additionally, Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that patients in the non-HRC group, low-RS group, and aged ≤ 60 years exhibited the longest overall survival, while those in the HRC group, high-RS group, and aged > 60 years demonstrated the shortest overall survival (p = 0.004, Log-rank test).

Conclusions

Radiomic nomograms are capable of predicting the HRC status in MM. The cytogenetic status, radiomics model Rad score, and age collectively influence the overall survival of MM patients. These factors potentially contribute to pre-treatment clinical decision-making and prognostic assessment.