Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) as a fuel and the associated risks: A quantitative analysis in the scenario of a developing country

Abstract

Excessive dependence on fossil fuels has precipitated various challenges, including Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, health hazards, and the depletion of natural resources. Such perils underscore the importance of conducting requisite risk assessments for alternative fuel sources like Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) to ensure their safe utilization. This study undertakes a quantitative risk assessment encompassing diverse facets of the CNG sector holistically, aiming to pinpoint, analyze, and appraise risks, thus empowering policymakers to devise targeted mitigation strategies. To achieve this goal, the collected data undergoes analysis via an integrated approach combining the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (F-AHP) and Fuzzy Technique of Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (F-TOPSIS). The study's findings reveal a heightened risk of explosion within the CNG sector owing to its highly combustible nature. Additionally, it computes an overall risk index of 0.266 for the CNG sector in a developing nation like Pakistan, indicating a relatively lower risk level compared to other fuel sources. Policymakers are thus advised to undertake requisite measures concerning infrastructure, customer safety, and environmental and economic stability to accrue both immediate and long-term benefits. The application of hybrid techniques for the risk assessment of the CNG sector in the case of a developing country marks the novelty of this study and a study of the first of its kind.