Estimating personal electric vehicle demand and its adoption timeframe: A study on consumer perception in Indian metropolitan cities

Abstract

India’s transition to electric vehicles has entered its second decade. The government has set a target of having EV sales accounting for 30 % of private cars and 80 % for two-wheelers by 2030. However, despite several efforts of government and industry, the penetration of electric vehicles till-date has not been as per the set targets. This study aims to estimate the end-user demand and adoption timeframe of electric 4-wheelers (e-4 W) and 2-wheelers (e-2 W) in India’s four large metropolitan areas. Binary logit choice models are developed based on a discrete choice experiment carried out by utilizing 2,400 face-to-face interview responses. In addition, ordered logit models are developed to assess the adoption timeframe of the EVs. The study results show a significant geographic variation in demand for e-4Ws and e-2Ws within India. This demand is also driven by vehicle attributes, demographics, infrastructural elements, and user attitudes. Existing vehicle owners are more likely to purchase an EV in the future, and are also likely to drive/ride it more. In addition, consumers who are young and wealthy, and living in homes with dedicated parking spaces are more likely to be early adopters of EVs. These findings would assist policymakers in designing a tailormade and phased EV implementation scheme in India.