Global variation in the preferred temperature for recreational outdoor activity

Abstract

The impacts of climate change will depend on how human societies adapt to higher temperatures. In this study we report empirical evidence suggesting that people living in warmer places prefer a higher temperature for their recreational outdoor activities. To arrive at this conclusion we examine a novel global dataset of mobile phone usage in parks in more than 2500 locations across 77 countries. We examine this dataset with econometric methods to identify the relationship between outdoor recreation and temperature from daily variation in weather. Overall we find that for every increase in annual mean temperature by 1 degree Celsius, the preferred daily mean temperature for outdoor activity increases by about 0.5 degrees Celsius. We explain how these results can be interpreted as evidence for partial adaptation. We also illustrate how ignoring adaptation can bias projections of future responses to climate change.