Optimising Sowing Window for Wheat Cultivars Under RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 Scenarios During the 21st Century in Indian Punjab

Abstract

A simulation study was conducted for assessing the climate change impact on wheat cultivars (HD2967 and PBW725) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 scenarios for four agroclimatic zones (AZ) of Punjab. The yield trend during 70 years (2025–95) using the CERES-Wheat model was assessed for different sowing windows (end October to end November). The maximum/minimum temperature and rainfall, respectively, during the season varied between 25–27°C/9–12°C and 27–103 mm (AZ II), 24–27°C/8–13°C and 37–105 mm (AZ III), 24–26°C/9–12°C and 20–80 mm (AZ IV) and 23–26°C/9–12°C and 30–71 mm (AZ V). The climatic conditions largely vary across the state, because of which only AZs II, III and V were found productive for wheat crop with most of the years lying in the high yield (>5000 kg/ha) category. The sowing of HD2967 during mid to end November would be suitable adaptation strategy for wheat growers in the state.