The time-dependent Poisson-gamma model in practice: Recruitment forecasting in HIV trials

Abstract

Despite a growing body of literature in the area of recruitment modeling for multicenter studies, in practice, statistical models to predict enrollments are rarely used and when they are, they often rely on unrealistic assumptions. The time-dependent Poisson-Gamma model (tPG) is a recently developed flexible methodology which allows analysts to predict recruitments in an ongoing multicenter trial, and its performance has been validated on data from a cohort study. In this article, we illustrate and further validate the tPG model on recruitment data from randomized controlled trials. Additionally, in the appendix, we provide a practical and easy to follow guide to its implementation via the tPG R package. To validate the model, we show the predictive performance of the proposed methodology in forecasting the recruitment process of two HIV vaccine trials conducted by the HIV Vaccine Trials Network in multiple Sub-Saharan countries.