First Outbreak of African Swine Fever in Sweden: Local Epidemiology, Surveillance, and Eradication Strategies

Abstract

The first case of African swine fever (ASF) was confirmed in Sweden in September 2023. This article describes the local epidemiology, including the spatiotemporal dynamics of the outbreak and some of the factors that may have contributed to its apparently successful eradication. Upon detection of the outbreak, strict control measures were put in place in a preliminarily defined infected zone. A carcass search, including geo-localisation, removal, sampling, and destruction of found carcasses, was initiated and a preliminary core area was defined based on the results. Six months after confirmation of the first case, 93 wild boar carcasses had been found in the infected zone, of which 62 tested positive for ASF virus (ASFV). All ASFV-positive carcasses were found inside the core area. Based on two taphonomy methods, it was assumed that the infection was introduced between early May and late June 2023. The data also indicated that the epidemic curve peaked between mid-August and mid-September, with the last death occurring in late September 2023. Based on the average estimated time of death, geo-localisation of carcasses and two-dimensional kernel density estimation, clustering in space and time was identified. An online questionnaire with questions about hunting and the wild boar population was sent to all leaders of hunting groups in the infected zone. The results showed that the wild boar population had increased in the last 10 years but with large variations and geographical heterogeneity in space use. Disease introduction through natural wild boar movements was excluded and it was assumed that the long-distance translocation of the virus had occurred through human activities. A municipal waste collection centre without wild boar-proof fencing is located close to the epicentre of the outbreak, attracting many wild boar and contributing to the spread of the virus once it had been introduced to the population.