Beyond the immediate effects of income inequality on homicide rates: A reply to Daly's critique

Abstract

This study responds to Martin Daly's critique of our 2022 study on the correlation between income inequality and homicide rates in Mexican municipalities. Our updated analysis incorporates both immediate and lagged effects of income inequality, revealing significant non-linear relationships between past inequality and current homicide rates. We find that higher levels of past inequality interact with present inequality to increase homicide rates, particularly among currently average and highly unequal municipalities –not so much in less unequal municipalities. These findings support Daly's argument that economic inequality's influence on violent behavior accumulates over time, highlighting the need for a time dimension in homicide rate models. Our study emphasizes the importance of considering historical economic conditions when addressing socio-economic determinants of homicide, aiming to contribute constructively to ongoing attempts to effectively reduce homicidal violence.