Self-fulfilling prophecy in livelihood sustainability: Rural tourism in Pingqian Village, China

Abstract

This study proposes a conceptual model of villagers' risk perceptions of poverty recurrence. Integrating the sustainable livelihoods framework (SLF) with the concept of self-fulfilling prophecy, the study employed a mixed-method approach in the empirical analyses using data collected over four years in Pingqian Village, China. The study revealed that rural tourism empowered the villagers to improve their physical and financial capital by reducing dependence on cropland. However, interactive vulnerabilities can significantly impact their risk perceptions of poverty recurrence, thus shaping their behaviors in investment decisions and business operations in rural tourism. This raises concerns about potential overreliance on tourism in rural communalities that may undermine sustainability goals. In practical terms, the study presents a mechanism to monitor villagers’ risk perceptions of poverty recurrence at different risk levels. The conceptual and empirical results enrich the SLF and sustainability literature and practice by highlighting the bidirectional relationship between vulnerabilities and livelihood assets.