Victoria July to December 2023

Abstract

For the most part of the last decade, several key factors were constant in Victorian politics. These included a dominant Labor Party holding a comfortable majority in the Legislative Assembly, an opposition beset by internal divisions, and Daniel Andrews who had been premier since 2014. The last half of 2023 was to be a significant period for Victorian politics. There would be major changes to the personnel, but not necessarily the policies or general trend, of government and administration in Victoria.

Prior to the last state election in 2022, Victoria had been named as the host jurisdiction for the 2026 Commonwealth Games. This was seen to be a boon, especially as the games would be held across the state. Premier Andrews touted the event would be ‘great for jobs, hospitality and our economy’, while the then-Minister for Tourism, Sport and Major Events, Martin Pakula, was quoted as saying that the Games would ‘deliver major benefits, particularly [for] the regions, and leave a lasting legacy for the growth and development of sport throughout Victoria’ (Premier of Victoria 12 April 2022). When the announcement was made in 2022, the state government estimated that the event would add $3 billion to the state's economy and create thousands of jobs during, and after, the Commonwealth Games (Premier of Victoria 12 April 2022).

It was also planned that 2026 Commonwealth Games would be held in the regions of Geelong, Bendigo, Ballarat, and Gippsland. These regions would stand to benefit from the potential economic activity from the games as well as through the investments in housing and sports infrastructure. Each hub, for example, would have their own athlete villages, while the state government planned to create ‘world-class sports facilities’ which would ‘leave a legacy of affordable housing for the regions and modern sports infrastructure’ after the Games (Premier of Victoria 12 April 2022).

Despite such high ambitions, on 18 July 2023 Daniel Andrews announced that Victoria would cancel the event. In his statement, Premier Andrews cited the growing cost of hosting the event which was estimated to be over $6 billion. As he put it: ‘…the cost of hosting these Games in 2026 is not the 2.6 billion which was budgeted’, rather it was ‘at least $6 billion, and could be as high as $7 billion’ (cited in The Age 18 July 2023).

The Deputy Premier who also had responsibility for the Commonwealth Games, Jacinta Allan, announced that the government would provide support for the regions who had been expecting to host the Games. In particular, the government committed to delivering the infrastructure that had been planned with each region in a package that would cost approximately $2 billion (The Age 18 July 2023).

The government's decision came as a shock to some officials such as the Chief Executive of Commonwealth Games Australia, Craig Philips, who had reportedly been notified of the estimated costs ‘during an early-morning phone call’ on the day of the announcement and that the estimated $6 billion appeared to be a ‘gross exaggeration’ (cited in The Age 18 July 2023). Cancelling the games also presented an opportunity for the opposition to attack the government's decision. Leader of the Liberal Party, John Pesutto, argued the government's actions were humiliating for the state which had prided itself on hosting sporting events (The Age 18 July 2023).

The decision to not host the Commonwealth Games appeared to have very little political implications for the government, as public opinion seemingly supported the government's position. In a Roy Morgan Poll held in the days after the announcement, 58 per cent of Victorians agreed that cancelling the Games was a ‘good idea’ (Roy Morgan 20 July 2023). The Guardian Essential poll showed similar results. Across the nation, just 36 per cent of people disagreed with the government's cancellation, while 41 per cent agreed with the Andrews Government's decision (The Guardian 25 July 2023). In Victoria, 44 per cent of people supported the cancellation of the Games (The Guardian 25 July 2023).

There would be, however, financial implications for the state. While the premier did not provide insights about potential compensation at the time of the announcement, it was later revealed that a significant sum would be paid to bodies involved with the Games including the Commonwealth Games Federation. After negotiations, in August 2023, the government agreed that the state would pay $380 million to these bodies. Premier Andrews was seemingly keen to move on from talking about the Commonwealth Games and presented the payment of this amount as a positive outcome for the state. He noted that ‘not a dollar more’ would be paid and that the ‘matter is closed out and finalised’ (The Age 19 August 2023). Additional budget information about the games were also released by the government which showed increases in expected expenditure on items including transport and security (The Age 19 August 2023).

The term of the Victorian Ombudsman, Deborah Glass, was in its final months in the second half of 2023. Glass, who was appointed in March 2014, had led numerous inquiries into the conduct of the public sector. In August 2023, the Victorian Ombudsman released a report titled ‘Misconduct in public organisations: A casebook’. The report highlighted cases of challenges to integrity in the public sector. This included potential cases of conflicts of interest as well as perceived cases of misusing public money. In one case study, the report highlighted how a manager in a state government department had been paid for 40 days which they had not worked.

In the same month, Deborah Glass called for greater transparency by arguing that cabinet documents needed to be accessible by the ombudsman. As she put it (cited in The Guardian 14 August 2023), ‘As an officer of the parliament who may receive referrals from parliament and IBAC [Independent Broad-based Anti-Corruption Commission] in relation to the conduct of ministers, an ombudsman should be able to access such documents in those circumstances’. Glass also argued that funding for the ombudsman's office needed to be set by an independent authority rather than the government (The Guardian 14 August 2023).

Arguably one of Ombudsman Glass's most prominent contributions to Victorian politics and government in 2023 was released in December. The report ‘Alleged politicisation of the public sector: Investigation of a matter referred from the Legislative Council on 9 February 2022 – Part 2’, shed light on the views and experiences of public servants in the state. The report suggested there had been a weakening of the crucially important Westminster ideal of a public service that provided the government with ‘frank and fearless’ advice while remaining divorced from partisan politics, and that ‘Creeping politicisation’ was now ‘a reality in Victoria’ (Victorian Ombudsman 6 December 2023).

While the report made it clear that not every government agency or department had been ‘politicised’, there were public service staff who had reported ‘growing pressure to tailor official advice to the preferences of the government of the day’ (Victorian Ombudsman 6 December 2023). This, coupled with the ombudsman's note that they were ‘deeply troubled by the number of people who were afraid to speak’ to the ombudsman during the investigation attracted significant media attention (Victorian Ombudsman 6 December 2023). The culture and operation of the Victorian public sector would continue to be a feature of the state's political debate in the New Year.

Ryan Smith, the Liberal member of parliament representing the district of Warrandyte, decided to retire from state politics. Smith had first been elected to the Legislative Assembly in 2006 and had held portfolios including Environment and Climate Change and Youth Affairs during the Baillieu and Napthine governments between 2010 and 2014. His resignation meant that there would be a byelection which was scheduled for 26 August.

Warrandyte is a metropolitan electorate which covers suburbs including Park Orchards and Chirnside Park which are to the northeast of Melbourne. At the previous election in 2022, the Liberal Party had won the seat with a margin of 4.3 per cent. The district had elected a Liberal Party candidate since 1988, so the expectation was that the Liberal Party would be able to hold this seat. Twelve candidates contested the election, but the Labor Party decided that it would not field a candidate, reportedly on the grounds that it would seek to preserve its finances and focus its campaign on the 2026 election (see The Age 26 July 2023).

The result was as expected. The Liberal Party's candidate, Nicole Werner, was able to win the seat after winning over 57 per cent of the primary vote. The absence of the Labor Party had implications for the other candidates. The Greens primary vote, for example, rose by almost 7 per cent and meant their candidate finished a distant second to the Liberal Party (winning just 18.6 per cent of the vote).

The result was seen by supporters of opposition leader John Pesutto as a vindication of his leadership approach. On election night, Pesutto took the opportunity to use the Warrandyte victory as a way to appeal to voters across the state by stating that ‘Things can be better, and I want to promise all Victorians no matter where they live in our great state…that we are committed to holding the Andrews government to account…’ (cited in ABC 27 August 2023).

Just days after the Warrandyte byelection victory, the Liberal Party had to prepare to replace yet another parliamentary vacancy. Matt Bach, who was representing the North-Eastern Metropolitan district in the Legislative Council announced that he would be taking a new teaching position in the UK. As the position was in the upper house, a byelection would not be held. Rather, the party would be able to select Bach's replacement. This precipitated a vigorous preselection contest in the Liberal Party. In December, the party selected businessman Richard Welch who would take up his position in the Legislative Council in the New Year.

The second half of 2023 had some positives for Liberal Party leader John Pesutto. Having won Warrandyte, and being able to attack the government on topics including cancelling the Commonwealth Games, seemingly lifted his profile in the community. In early August, the Herald Sun published a feature on Pesutto and presented Victorians with his background and political development. A key theme that emerged was his desire to present the Liberal Party as being concerned with policy challenges that resonated with more Victorians than in the past. Of particular concern was a focus on housing affordability and cost of living (Herald Sun 4 August 2023). This served to alert the broader electorate of Pesutto's plans for the party during this parliamentary term.

This positivity, however, was soon overshadowed by further coverage of divisions within the party. The day after the Liberal Party won the seat of Warrandyte, the Liberal Party's shadow minister for police, fronted a media conference which revisited a motor vehicle accident which involved Daniel Andrews in 2013 (see The Age 28 August 2023). This reportedly annoyed the party's leadership as it took attention away from the positivity of the byelection victory (see The Age 28 August 2023). Other divisions were also emerging over the issue of paying for the legal defence of Pesutto and the party's leadership following a potential new defamation case against them (The Age 30 August 2023). Furthermore, reports that mediation between Pesutto and Moira Deeming had failed took further attention away from the party's policy program while shining a light on the party's internal disunity (see ABC 6 September 2023).

In August 2023, on the advice of the Premier, Professor Margaret Gardner AC was appointed as the 30^th Governor of Victoria. Prior to her appointment, Professor Gardner had been Vice-Chancellor of Monash University since 2014. The Governor's term in Victoria is usually five years, so it is expected that Professor the Honourable Margaret Gardner AC would be in the role for at least the 2026 state election. She replaced Linda Dessau who had held the position since 2015.

The final week of September in Victoria is usually dominated by the leadup to the AFL Grand Final which traditionally is on the last Saturday of the month. In 2023, however, an announcement by Daniel Andrews partially overshadowed the AFL, even if it was for a few days. On 26 September, Daniel Andrews convened a press conference to announce that he would relinquish his position on 5pm 27 September.

Daniel Andrews had been elected to represent the electorate of Mulgrave in 2002. He had served as a minister in the Bracks and Brumby Governments, and became leader of the opposition following Labor's loss in 2010. Within four years, Andrews led Labor back into government. In 2018 and 2022, he led Labor to comfortable election victories. Andrews presented himself as a plain speaking and conviction-led politician who would be looking out for the interest of Victoria. His communication style, and policy direction, ostensibly contributed to his strong electoral support. His approach during COVID-19, in which lengthy lockdowns and restrictions on travel were applied, also mobilised passionate critics of his leadership within the Victorian electorate.

During his final press conference, Andrews highlighted that the role of premier had taken a significant toll by stating that ‘It's not an easy job being the premier of our state – that's not a complaint, that's just a fact’, and that the job ‘…requires 100 per cent from you and your family. That is, of course, time limited and now is the time to step away’ (cited in ABC 26 September 2023). Andrews also resigned from the Parliament of Victoria and triggered a byelection in Mulgrave.

On 27 September, Jacinta Allan became the 49^th premier of Victoria. Allan had been first elected to the Legislative Assembly in 1999 to represent the electorate of Bendigo East which is a provincial district northwest of Melbourne. Jacinta Allan also started her new role with considerable experience having held a range of portfolios over the 24 years she had been in parliament including Employment and Youth Affairs in 2002, as well as Transport and Infrastructure since 2022. Allan was from the same Socialist Left Faction as Daniel Andrews, which had consolidated its strength in the Labor Caucus over recent years. She had been the favoured candidate to replace Andrews after being appointed Deputy Leader prior to the last state election.

Allan's path to the premiership, however, was not without internal challenges. Ben Carroll, who held portfolios including public transport, reportedly mounted a challenge to Allan in the Caucus room. Carroll was from the party's right faction. If he was to officially declare himself to be a candidate for the party's leadership, a replacement for Andrews would take several weeks to finalise as it would involve the party's membership voting for his successor. It was reported that Andrews urged Carroll to withdraw his challenge and support Allan at the Caucus meeting which duly occurred (see ABC 29 September 2023). This, however, raised questions about how robust the ALP's internal cohesion would be in the post-Andrews years.

With Daniel Andrews resigning from the parliament, a byelection was held to elect his replacement in the outer metropolitan seat which is located in the southeast of Melbourne. The seat had previously been held by Andrews with a margin of 10 per cent, making this one of the safest seats for the Labor Party.

Labor preselected Eden Foster, the Mayor of the City of Greater Dandenong, while the Liberal Party preselected Courtney Mann who was reportedly working in John Pesutto's office. There were an additional eight candidates which also included Ian Cook, a high profile independent who had previously contested Mulgrave at the general election.

The byelection was held on 18 November and Labor was able to retain the seat, even though there was a sharp fall in the party's primary vote (by approximately 11 per cent), while the Liberal Party's vote rose by 4.5 per cent (see ABC 27 November 2023). On a two-party preferred basis, Labor held the seat by a margin of 4.7 per cent over the Liberal Party (see ABC 27 November 2023).

Like Australians in other jurisdictions, Victorians voted on the proposal to establish an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice on 14 October. There were divisions between the leaders of the major parties in Victoria about how they would be voting. Premier Allan had actively campaigned for the ‘yes’ movement. The leader of the opposition, however, sided with the federal Liberal Party's approach. This meant that at least 20 of the 29 Liberal Party MPs in the Victorian parliament would be voting ‘no’ at the referendum (The Age, 4 September 2023).

Like the other states, a majority of Victorians voted ‘no’. The turnout rate was 91 per cent, and the ‘yes’ vote in Victoria, which was 45.85 per cent, was the highest of all states. Only the ACT had a higher ‘yes’ vote of 61.3 per cent. Disaggregating the data in Victoria highlighted similar trends to other jurisdictions as the ‘yes’ vote tended to be stronger in inner metropolitan electorates. In the electorate of Melbourne, for example, the ‘yes’ vote was 77.2 per cent, while the electorate of Macnamara, which is immediately south of Melbourne, returned a ‘yes’ vote of 64.6 per cent. In many outer metropolitan electorates, the ‘no’ vote had a majority.