{"title":"A Novel Extended Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, and Recovered Model with Surveys for Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic in Rajasthan.","authors":"Meena Malik, Chander Prabha, Punit Soni, Khushboo Bhardwaj, Anshu Arora","doi":"10.4103/ijph.ijph_1742_22","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The impact of COVID-19 on human life has been catastrophic. It is the greatest crisis that humankind has ever faced. It already caused over 21 million confirmed cases and 758,000 deaths as of July 2021. Modeling frameworks, underlying assumptions, available datasets, and the region/time frame being modeled, predictions are possible, but the projections might vary widely, making it difficult to rely on one model universally way. This article presents the prediction and forecasting technique for COVID-19, using the widely adopted susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model. The modified SEIR model is presented to model the pandemic to represent an open system where the mass movement of the population is considered. Spreading patterns of the pandemic over time, in actual and as per the model, are compared to check the authenticity of the model.</p>","PeriodicalId":13298,"journal":{"name":"Indian journal of public health","volume":"68 2","pages":"284-286"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Indian journal of public health","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.4103/ijph.ijph_1742_22","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/6/29 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The impact of COVID-19 on human life has been catastrophic. It is the greatest crisis that humankind has ever faced. It already caused over 21 million confirmed cases and 758,000 deaths as of July 2021. Modeling frameworks, underlying assumptions, available datasets, and the region/time frame being modeled, predictions are possible, but the projections might vary widely, making it difficult to rely on one model universally way. This article presents the prediction and forecasting technique for COVID-19, using the widely adopted susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model. The modified SEIR model is presented to model the pandemic to represent an open system where the mass movement of the population is considered. Spreading patterns of the pandemic over time, in actual and as per the model, are compared to check the authenticity of the model.
期刊介绍：
Indian Journal of Public Health is a peer-reviewed international journal published Quarterly by the Indian Public Health Association. It is indexed / abstracted by the major international indexing systems like Index Medicus/MEDLINE, SCOPUS, PUBMED, etc. The journal allows free access (Open Access) to its contents and permits authors to self-archive final accepted version of the articles. The Indian Journal of Public Health publishes articles of authors from India and abroad with special emphasis on original research findings that are relevant for developing country perspectives including India. The journal considers publication of articles as original article, review article, special article, brief research article, CME / Education forum, commentary, letters to editor, case series reports, etc. The journal covers population based studies, impact assessment, monitoring and evaluation, systematic review, meta-analysis, clinic-social studies etc., related to any domain and discipline of public health, specially relevant to national priorities, including ethical and social issues. Articles aligned with national health issues and policy implications are prefered.
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