Correlation of powers of Hüsler–Reiss vectors and Brown–Resnick fields, and application to insured wind losses

IF 1.1 3区 数学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Extremes Pub Date : 2024-06-14 DOI:10.1007/s10687-023-00474-w
Erwan Koch
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Abstract

Hüsler–Reiss vectors and Brown–Resnick fields are popular models in multivariate and spatial extreme-value theory, respectively, and are widely used in applications. We provide analytical formulas for the correlation between powers of the components of the bivariate Hüsler–Reiss vector, extend these to the case of the Brown–Resnick field, and thoroughly study the properties of the resulting dependence measure. The use of correlation is justified by spatial risk theory, while power transforms are insightful when taking correlation as dependence measure, and are moreover very suited damage functions for weather events such as wind extremes or floods. This makes our theoretical results worthwhile for, e.g., actuarial applications. We finally perform a case study involving insured losses from extreme wind speeds in Germany, and obtain valuable conclusions for the insurance industry.

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Hüsler-Reiss 矢量幂与 Brown-Resnick 场的相关性,以及在投保风力损失中的应用
许斯勒-雷斯向量和布朗-雷斯尼克场分别是多元极值理论和空间极值理论中的流行模型,并在应用中得到广泛应用。我们提供了双变量 Hüsler-Reiss 向量各分量幂之间相关性的分析公式,并将这些公式扩展到 Brown-Resnick 场的情况,并深入研究了由此产生的依赖性度量的特性。空间风险理论证明相关性的使用是合理的,而将相关性作为依存性度量时,幂变换具有深刻的洞察力,而且非常适合极端风力或洪水等天气事件的损害函数。这使得我们的理论结果在精算应用等方面具有价值。最后,我们对德国极端风速造成的保险损失进行了案例研究,并得出了对保险业有价值的结论。
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来源期刊
Extremes
Extremes MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS-STATISTICS & PROBABILITY
CiteScore
2.20
自引率
7.70%
发文量
15
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Extremes publishes original research on all aspects of statistical extreme value theory and its applications in science, engineering, economics and other fields. Authoritative and timely reviews of theoretical advances and of extreme value methods and problems in important applied areas, including detailed case studies, are welcome and will be a regular feature. All papers are refereed. Publication will be swift: in particular electronic submission and correspondence is encouraged. Statistical extreme value methods encompass a very wide range of problems: Extreme waves, rainfall, and floods are of basic importance in oceanography and hydrology, as are high windspeeds and extreme temperatures in meteorology and catastrophic claims in insurance. The waveforms and extremes of random loads determine lifelengths in structural safety, corrosion and metal fatigue.
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