Optimal Reconstruction of Vector Fields from Data for Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification

Abstract

Predicting the evolution of dynamics from a given trajectory history of an unknown system is an important and challenging problem. This paper presents a model-free method of forecasting unknown chaotic systems through reconstructing vector fields from noisy measured data via an adaptation of optimal control methods. This technique is also applicable to partially observed systems using a Takens delay embedding approach. The algorithms are validated on the Lorenz system and the four-dimensional hyperchaotic Rössler system, and demonstrate successful predictions well beyond the Lyapunov timescale. It is found that for small datasets or datasets with large levels of noise, the prediction accuracy of partially observed systems approaches that of fully observed systems. The presented approach also allows the model-free assessment of local predictability on the attractor by evolving initial condition density through the reconstructed vector fields via estimation of the transfer operator. The method is compared to predictions made by an imperfect model which highlights the utility of model-free approaches when the only available models have significant model error. The capability of this method for reconstruction of continuous and global vector fields may be applied to model validation, forecasting of initial conditions not in the training set, and model-free filtering.