Climate correlates of bluetongue incidence in southern Portugal

IF 1.6 3区 农林科学 Q2 ENTOMOLOGY Medical and Veterinary Entomology Pub Date : 2024-06-21 DOI:10.1111/mve.12738
Frederico Mestre, Ana Luísa Pereira, Miguel B. Araújo
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Abstract

Model forecasts of the spatiotemporal occurrence dynamics of diseases are necessary and can help understand and thus manage future disease outbreaks. In our study, we used ecological niche modelling to assess the impact of climate on the vector suitability for bluetongue disease, a disease affecting livestock production with important economic consequences. Specifically, we investigated the relationship between the occurrence of bluetongue outbreaks and the environmental suitability of each of the four vector species studied. We found that the main vector for bluetongue disease, Culicoides imicola, a typically tropical and subtropical species, was a strong predictor for disease outbreak occurrence in a region of southern Portugal from 2004 to 2021. The results highlight the importance of understanding the climatic factors that might influence vector presence to help manage infectious disease impacts. When diseases impact economically relevant species, the impacts go beyond mortality and have important economic consequences.

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葡萄牙南部蓝舌病发病率与气候的关系
对疾病的时空发生动态进行模型预测很有必要,这有助于了解并进而管理未来的疾病爆发。在我们的研究中,我们使用生态位建模来评估气候对蓝舌病病媒适宜性的影响,蓝舌病是一种影响畜牧业生产并造成重要经济后果的疾病。具体来说,我们调查了蓝舌病爆发与所研究的四种病媒的环境适宜性之间的关系。我们发现,蓝舌病的主要传播媒介 Culicoides imicola(一种典型的热带和亚热带物种)是 2004 年至 2021 年葡萄牙南部地区蓝舌病爆发发生的有力预测因素。这些结果凸显了了解可能影响病媒存在的气候因素的重要性,有助于管理传染病的影响。当疾病影响到经济上相关的物种时,其影响不仅仅是死亡率,还会产生重要的经济后果。
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来源期刊
Medical and Veterinary Entomology
Medical and Veterinary Entomology 农林科学-昆虫学
CiteScore
3.70
自引率
5.30%
发文量
65
审稿时长
12-24 weeks
期刊介绍: Medical and Veterinary Entomology is the leading periodical in its field. The Journal covers the biology and control of insects, ticks, mites and other arthropods of medical and veterinary importance. The main strengths of the Journal lie in the fields of: -epidemiology and transmission of vector-borne pathogens changes in vector distribution that have impact on the pathogen transmission- arthropod behaviour and ecology- novel, field evaluated, approaches to biological and chemical control methods- host arthropod interactions. Please note that we do not consider submissions in forensic entomology.
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