A 3D agent-based model for simulating urban densification in Toronto, Canada

Abstract

The use of land parcel data, 3D visualisation and urban theories offers a significant opportunity for advancing simulations of urban densification. This paper presents a 3D agent-based model (ABM) to explore future urban densification dynamics in Toronto based on stakeholder behaviour and interactions, the impact of zoning regulations, and profit expectations. The ABM establishes residents, developers, landowners, and the local zoning authority as primary actors involved in urban densification. This model replicates the Toronto urban development process through a structured framework of submodels which represent different stages of this process, based on the literature and gentrification theories. Three different scenarios are developed which show the city is projected to experience between 46 and 98 new developments by the year 2040. Average building height could increase by 17% to 56%, and the city could have 10,238 to 25,070 new units to meet future population demand. These simulations characterise Toronto’s future capacity for urban densification, realise the levels of densification required to meet Toronto’s growing population, and ultimately provide a more comprehensive understanding of the city’s future transformation.