Epidemiological trends of osteoarthritis at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2021, with a projection from 2021 to 2050

Abstract

Objectives Osteoarthritis (OA) and has become a global public health problem. The purpose of this study was to elucidate the burden of OA across different geographic regions, ages, sexes, and types. Methods Publicly available data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 were used in this study. The burden of OA was estimated at the global, SDI quintile, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2021 through systematic analyses. Bayesian age-period-cohort models were utilized to predict the burden over the next 30 years. Results Globally, there were 607 million people suffering from OA with 46.6 million new cases and 21.3 million DALYs in 2021. The age-standardized incidence, prevalence and DALYs rates increased to 535.00, 6967.29, and 244.50 per 100,000 population, with knee OA accounting for more than 56%. The age-standardized rates of OA were higher in females than in males. East Asia, South Asia, and Western Europe were the top three regions and China, India, and the United States were the top three countries with the highest burdens. In addition, high body-mass index (BMI) resulted in 4.43 million DALYs with an increase of 205.10%. BAPC projections showed that the burden of OA will continue to rise over the next 30 years. Conclusions As populations ageing and global obesity rates rise, the burden of total OA and OA due to high BMI will continue to increase. Females and middle-aged and elderly patients are the current populations to focus on. The development and implementation of effective prevention and treatment strategies is critical.