Voting Patterns, Mortality, and Health Inequalities in England

Abstract

Objectives: To replicate an analysis conducted just prior to the 1997 UK General Election on the relationship between voting patterns at the constituency level, correlations between voting patterns, measured inequality, and premature mortality. Design: Observational study using data from the Office of National Statistics. Setting: England, UK. Participants: The health and mortality co-variates come from the English population across multiple publicly available datasets from the Office of National Statistics and are cross-tabulated against members of the public who voted in the 2019 UK General Election in constituencies in England. Main Outcome Measures: Age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) for premature deaths for 2021, Health Deprivation and Disability (HDD) and Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) for 2019, Slope Indices of Inequality (2001-20), Healthy Life Expectancy (2011-20). Results: When observing the proportion of the eligible vote for Labour at the constituency level, there was a strong correlation with higher ASMR in both males (r=0.707, p<0.0001) and females (r=0.6505, p<0.0001). There is a strong correlation between Labour vote share ranks and deprivation, with Spearman's rank correlation coefficients of 𝜌=-0.687 (p<0.0001) for deprivation as measured by the HDD and 𝜌=-0.695 (p<0.0001) for the IMD ranks. Slope indices of inequality (SII) remain high for males and are increasing for females. Healthy life expectancies remain stratified, and differentials across deprivation remain wide and unchanged. Conclusions: Health inequalities across constituencies and socio-economic indicators such as IMD remain high. New approaches are likely to be required to reduce inequalities in the UK. Trial Registration: N/A.