A. A. Vakhrusheva, K. B. Kaportseva, Yu. S. Shugay, V. E. Eremeev, V. V. Kalegaev
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
The paper demonstrates results of modeling arrival time of coronal mass ejections (CME) to near-Earth space with parameters of coronal dimmings in 2010–2018. We use drag-based model (DBM) for CME propagation and empirical model for quasi-stationary solar wind streams. We compared the ICME arrival time and speed forecast for events with coronal source in the central region of the solar disk based on the CME initial speed using (1) CACTus database; (2) dimming maximum intensity drop from Solar Demon database to calculate the initial speed of the CME. Results show that the methods result in similar errors. To study the possibility of predicting ICME, for which a CME may not be observed in the coronagraph for some reason, modeling of ICME was carried out using dimming parameters. In 43% of cases, ICME arrival time were forecasted with an accuracy of 24 h using parameters of dimmings in the central region of solar disk that could not be associated with any CMEs.
期刊介绍：
Cosmic Research publishes scientific papers covering all subjects of space science and technology, including the following: ballistics, flight dynamics of the Earth’s artificial satellites and automatic interplanetary stations; problems of transatmospheric descent; design and structure of spacecraft and scientific research instrumentation; life support systems and radiation safety of manned spacecrafts; exploration of the Earth from Space; exploration of near space; exploration of the Sun, planets, secondary planets, and interplanetary medium; exploration of stars, nebulae, interstellar medium, galaxies, and quasars from spacecraft; and various astrophysical problems related to space exploration. A chronicle of scientific events and other notices concerning the main topics of the journal are also presented.
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