Dispersal patterns and potential distribution prediction of three rice planthopper species in China based on the ensemble model

Abstract

Three rice planthopper species, Nilaparvata lugens, Sogatella furcifera and Laodelphax striatellus, are destructive rice pests that cause serious economic losses in major rice-producing regions of China. Understanding their dispersal patterns and potential distribution areas is crucial for effective management and control. Based on historical climate data and simulated future climate data combined with species occurrence data, the dispersal patterns of three planthopper species were analysed and their potential distributions were predicted. The results showed that from 1993 to 2022, the suitable areas for the three rice planthoppers gradually expanded. By 2022, the total suitable area for S. furcifera reached 478.35 × 10⁴ km², followed by 376.02 × 10⁴ km² for L. striatellus and 264.97 × 10⁴ km² for N. lugens. The optimum area for S. furcifera exhibited the most significant increase, expanding by 136.07 × 10⁴ km². The species has extended its range from southern China to the northeastern and northwestern regions within the past three decades. The suitable areas for L. striatellus and N. lugens did not show a significant spread trend. In addition, compared to that in 2022, the total suitable area for the three rice planthopper species increased slightly from 2041 to 2060. The study revealed that the wettest monthly rainfall and the lowest temperature were the most influential factors affecting the distributions of these planthopper species. This study provides valuable insights into the dispersal patterns and potential distribution of rice planthoppers in China and provides a theoretical basis for effective prevention and control strategies for destructive rice pests.