Predicting the impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of moso bamboo in China based on biomod2 model

Abstract

Moso bamboo (Phyllostachys edulis), a non-timber plant resource in China, possesses significant ecological and economic value. However, human activities and climate change have degraded its natural habitat, posing a significant threat to its widespread distribution. To address this, we used species distribution models based on 115 occurrence data and 10 ecological variables to predict the potential suitable areas and spatial change trends of moso bamboo in present and future periods in China. We also analyzed areas with environmental anomalies and the drivers of its geographical variations under climate change. The results showed that the biomod2 ensemble model, consisting of eleven integrated models, exhibited significantly improved accuracy compared to single models. Key environmental factors limiting its distribution were mean diurnal temperature range (bio2), minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), precipitation seasonality (bio15), and elevation. Currently, the potential suitable habitat covers 152.74 × 10⁴ km², mainly from south of the Qinling-Huaihe River to north of the Tropic of Cancer. However, under future climate scenarios, these habitats will considerably shrink, especially in highly suitable areas. The moderately suitable habitat will fragment, and the low-suitability boundary will move northward. With the deepening impact of climate change, the entire distribution range will move towards higher latitudes. Hunan, Guizhou, Zhejiang, and western Jiangxi emerge as future climate refuges for moso bamboo, necessitating critical population protection. In summary, our research deepens our insight of how climate change drives the geographic distribution of moso bamboo and offers valuable theoretical support for its cultivation and conservation.