Quo vadis Scots pine forestry in northern Germany: How do silvicultural management and climate change determine an uncertain future?

IF 2.6 2区 农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY European Journal of Forest Research Pub Date : 2024-06-21 DOI:10.1007/s10342-024-01701-0
Hergen Christian Knocke, Maximilian Axer, Hans Friedrich Hamkens, Christoph Fischer, Jan Hendrik Hansen, Ralf-Volker Nagel, Matthias Albert
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Abstract

Scots pine is of greatest importance in northern Germany regarding its cultivation area and expected capability to perform in climate change. However, pine predominantly occurs in monocultures. Therefore, future pine forestry depends on an adaptation to climate change while improving ecological and economic forest functions. Yet future development of pine remains uncertain due to leeway in silvicultural guidelines and future climate. This study questions: (i) what is the range of future pine shares under climate change and different silvicultural management in northern Germany, (ii) how will the current stands develop and (iii) what is the range of uncertainty arising from climate models and silvicultural options? To answer these issues we (i) selected forest development types site- and climate-sensitively to either minimize or to maximize pine shares, (ii) simulated four, now practiced forest management scenarios for 50 years based on the German National Forest Inventory and (iii) analyzed the differences, to be interpreted as uncertainty. Novel to our approach is the site- and climate-sensitive selection of forest development types on large scales which emphasizes the contrasts of the different management guidelines. The results show that growing stock and cultivation area will decrease even if pine is promoted in forestry. The predicted restoration rate ranges from 50 to 72% depending on scenario and previous thinning regime. In conclusion, under the given management concepts and considering today’s high proportion of old pine, restoration is alarmingly slow. Amid the rapidly changing climate, we recommend to further adjust the management guidelines to accelerate forest restoration.

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德国北部苏格兰松林的现状:造林管理和气候变化如何决定不确定的未来?
在德国北部,苏格兰松树的种植面积和在气候变化中的预期表现能力最为重要。然而,松树主要是单一种植。因此,未来的松树林业取决于能否适应气候变化,同时改善森林的生态和经济功能。然而,由于造林准则和未来气候的余地,松树的未来发展仍不确定。本研究提出的问题是:(i) 在德国北部气候变化和不同造林管理条件下,未来松树所占比例的范围;(ii) 当前林分将如何发展;(iii) 气候模型和造林方案的不确定性范围?为了回答这些问题,我们(i) 选择了对地点和气候敏感的森林发展类型,以最小化或最大化松树所占的比例;(ii) 根据德国国家森林资源清查,模拟了四种目前已实行了 50 年的森林管理方案;(iii) 分析了差异,并将其解释为不确定性。我们的新方法是在大尺度上选择对地点和气候敏感的森林发展类型,强调不同管理方针的对比。结果表明,即使在林业中推广松树,生长量和栽培面积也会减少。根据不同的方案和先前的疏伐制度,预测的恢复率在 50% 到 72% 之间。总之,在既定的管理理念下,考虑到如今老松的比例很高,恢复速度之慢令人震惊。在气候迅速变化的情况下,我们建议进一步调整管理准则,以加快森林恢复。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
3.60%
发文量
77
审稿时长
6-16 weeks
期刊介绍: The European Journal of Forest Research focuses on publishing innovative results of empirical or model-oriented studies which contribute to the development of broad principles underlying forest ecosystems, their functions and services. Papers which exclusively report methods, models, techniques or case studies are beyond the scope of the journal, while papers on studies at the molecular or cellular level will be considered where they address the relevance of their results to the understanding of ecosystem structure and function. Papers relating to forest operations and forest engineering will be considered if they are tailored within a forest ecosystem context.
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