{"title":"Is El Niño-Southern Oscillation a Tipping Element in the Climate System?","authors":"Tobias Bayr, Joke F. Lübbecke, Stephanie Fiedler","doi":"10.1029/2023GL107848","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Observed El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varies between decades with high ENSO amplitude and more extreme Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events and decades with low ENSO amplitude and mainly weak El Niño events. Based on experiments with the CESM1 model, ENSO may lock-in into an extreme EP El Niño-dominated state in a +3.7 K warmer climate, while in a −4.0 K cooler climate ENSO may lock-in into a weak El Niño-dominated state. The state shift of ENSO with global warming can be explained by the location and amplitude of the strongest warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which amplifies the Bjerknes feedback and allows a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone onto the equator, a prerequisite of extreme EP El Niños. In light of these results, we discuss to what extent the state of ENSO may be a tipping element in the climate system.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023GL107848","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geophysical Research Letters","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL107848","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Observed El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varies between decades with high ENSO amplitude and more extreme Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events and decades with low ENSO amplitude and mainly weak El Niño events. Based on experiments with the CESM1 model, ENSO may lock-in into an extreme EP El Niño-dominated state in a +3.7 K warmer climate, while in a −4.0 K cooler climate ENSO may lock-in into a weak El Niño-dominated state. The state shift of ENSO with global warming can be explained by the location and amplitude of the strongest warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which amplifies the Bjerknes feedback and allows a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone onto the equator, a prerequisite of extreme EP El Niños. In light of these results, we discuss to what extent the state of ENSO may be a tipping element in the climate system.
观测到的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）有两种情况，一种是数十年来ENSO振幅较高，东太平洋（EP）厄尔尼诺现象较为极端；另一种是数十年来ENSO振幅较低，主要是弱厄尔尼诺现象。根据 CESM1 模型的实验结果，在+3.7 K 的较暖气候中，ENSO 可能锁定为以极端东太平洋厄尔尼诺为主的状态，而在-4.0 K 的较冷气候中，ENSO 可能锁定为以弱厄尔尼诺为主的状态。全球变暖导致厄尔尼诺/南方涛动的状态转变可以用赤道东太平洋最强变暖的位置和幅度来解释，它放大了比克尼斯反馈，使热带辐合带南移到赤道，这是极端厄尔尼诺现象的先决条件。根据这些结果，我们讨论了厄尔尼诺/南方涛动的状态在多大程度上可能成为气候系统的转折点。
期刊介绍：
Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.
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